Peter Lavelle

Untimely Thoughts

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01 April, 2010, 17:08
Blame Russia First

This week’s twin suicide bombings on Moscow’s busy Metro system shocked all of Russia. Is this a return to the bad old days of the 1990s and early 2000s, which witnessed one terrorist attack after another? Has the Kremlin miscalculated in its own domestic “war on terror” against regional separatists?

Some in Western media appear almost gleeful that the March 29 Metro attack occurred. It is as if Russia deserved to be punished for its domestic anti-terror policies initiated by former-President Vladimir Putin, and carried on by his successor Dmitry Medvedev.

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For the most part this criticism is unwarranted. There have been successes, missed opportunities, and poorly thought-out policies throughout Moscow’s anti-terror campaign. However, there is no reason to believe the actions of indigenous terrorist groups (with foreign assistance in some cases) will cause a rise of popular discontent against the current ruling political elite. The exact opposite is true—the average man on the street supports Putin's and Medvedev’s words of uncompromising retribution against anti-Russian terrorists. If the objective of the terrorists was to mobilize public opinion against the authorities, then they failed in their mission during the planning stages of the attacks.

Chechen rebels are now taking responsibility. But the Western mainstream media is pushing the line that they are “separatists,” and they argue further that the Chechens are in some way “freedom fighters.” The argument is that the Kremlin’s handpicked “strongman,” Ramzan Kadyrov, rules like a dictator (even at Moscow’s peril). The facts on the ground tell a very different story. I have been to Chechnya. Indeed, security is very tight. And the rule of law remains challenged.

But, for the most part, there is peace in Chechnya. There is now a focus on building civil society and the economy. This is a far cry from the cruelties of two armed conflicts and governance by Chechen nationalist and religious extremists.

Kadyrov is not another Thomas Jefferson, but then again the Chechen Republic is not Sweden. There’s no reason we should expect it to become so in the near future. The North Caucasus is a region which has experienced social and economic turbulence for centuries—and the area’s recent enthusiasm for Islamic fundamentalism has made things even more unstable.

Unfortunately for Moscow, the relative success seen in Chechnya has been at the expense of the neighboring republics in the region. Dagestan, long a refuge of peace and stability—especially when compared Chechnya a few years back—is now a boiling cauldron. Ingushetia, too, is experiencing severe societal pressures and a brutal cycle of violence. What Kadyrov expelled from Chechnya has found a fertile breeding ground elsewhere.

Dagestan and Ingushetia are under siege. The lack of economic opportunities is obvious to anyone familiar with the Caucasus. This is an issue the Kremlin has acknowledged and which has prompted new, long-term approaches to the region. The days of Chechen independence fighters are in the past. And Dagestan and Ingushetia aren’t seeking independence from the Russian Federation. What both want (and Chechnya is slowly experiencing) is justice in every sense of the word.

It is simply untrue that Russian federal security forces are wreaking havoc in the North Caucasus. It is far more complicated than that. Russian personnel are there to keep the peace, but have found themselves doing so in the face of warring elites and clans, while being deemed outsiders by the local population.

Russia may not deserve any compliments for its treatment of the North Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it certainly does not deserve international condemnation. Though Western and Russian liberals like to endlessly talk about what is wrong with Russian policy in the region, they have very few concrete ideas to offer in response. Moral indignation is never enough when the facts on the ground are complicated and seemingly hopeless.

Have mistakes been made? Yes. Have some of these errors made the situation worse? Yes, they have. But the presence of central authority is essential—and crucial to Russia’s territorial integrity.

Then there is the issue of a foreign involvement in the Moscow attacks. Many in the West dismiss this prospect as a factor in the Kremlin’s low-intensity conflict in the North Caucasus, particularly if it includes Islamic fundamentalists from outside Russia. This is an error made out of obvious political expediency. There is undeniable evidence of foreign funding of terrorist and extremist groups in Russia. The West ignores such evidence at its peril.

The Russian people have suffered still another terrorist attack. All of humanity should grieve with them.

(Originally published on National Interest online).

Show comments (53)
johnx

02 July, 2010, 02:10

Has Peter quit bloging?


johnx

30 June, 2010, 05:26

@Babeuf

What nonsense are you talking about?

Basayeav has commented on it with a pro-Chechen angle for ITN here in Britain and ABC in the US mixed with misinformation and lies.

The captured Chechen terrorist the only one to survive was an ethnic Chechen as well as Chechen terrorists releasing a video of them in the woods planning the attack.

And they were not all ethnic Chechens there were reported to be Arabs a Kazakh as well as militant cells from neighbouring Ingushetia.

So if you are indicting that Russians staged it themselves to justify Chechen/Muslim brutality your flat wrong.

And there connections to international terrorism are well established even US court documents and 9/11 commission report itself acknowledge this.


Babeuf

28 June, 2010, 22:49

Why is it that the "Chechen terrorists" who were interviewedfollowing the bombing of the Russian school in Belsan spoke Russian and could not speak the native Chechen language?


GaryMax

22 June, 2010, 23:51

@Edward Slagle
Security of voting data is certainly a concern, whether electronically or paper. The security of electronic voting machines is not isolated to the USA, but, some attention to this is called for where ever these types of machines are used.


Edward Slagle

19 June, 2010, 00:58

Why not have a segment on rigged elections in the U.S.--particularly those rigged via voting machines. The timing would be most appropriate, in view of the fact that there appears to be evidence that there was voting fraud via machine manipulation in the Democratic primary for a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina. In that election a political novice named Alvin Greene, who had no funds and no web site, won that primary contest against the party favorite amid allegations (and some evidence) of voting irregularities. The American media barely mentioned the possibility of machine tampering. In Virginia, I understand, the machines are fixed in such a way that a recount of actual votes is not possible. The documentary Hacking Democracy has provided proof that a voting chip (in at least one case) has been implanted in voting machines that flips a vote for one candidate to that for another.

The near-absence of comment about this problem by the media and by politicians suggests that the votes in American elections are very probably in danger throughout the nation: and a democracy in which the vote is stolen is, by definition, not a democracy.


Robert

17 June, 2010, 07:00

I watch the news all the time here,and not heard of any finger pointing at Russia on this?There was only news that Russia had been victimised by terrorist attack on subway.We feel about the same as you when it comes to terrorism.


Gene H.

02 June, 2010, 20:43

My sincere hope that Pat (I am an Irish Catholic like him) will rally around our President during our worst crisis since Pearl Harbor. This oil spill catastrophe is MUCH LARGER than anyone knows. If the public knew everything, there would be panic.


johnx

24 May, 2010, 00:25

Where is my comment?

@Sierra Nevada

I don’t seeing how western pundits stance on the latest Metro bombing by “rebels” is in any way constructive seeing how they do not head there own advice by waging global war against a fictitious “war on terror”.

That it is Russian military presence in the region not the over a billion dollars worth of foreign financing, training and military and other aid which the also seem to neglect the fact that during the period before the first war and de facto status after it that under both terrorist/fascist Chechen regimes they started a campaign of mass rape, murder and ethnic cleansing of the entire Russian population 200,000+ the North of which was historical Tesek Cossack territory incorporated in Chechnya under Khrushchev and a base for criminals across Russia to operate freely threatening the stability of the entire region causing a Russian military intervention in the first place.

They never use the same logic or self critical evaluation in regards to the London bombing or 9/11 or terrorists attacks in Israel.

H for hypocrisy.


Sierra Nevada

23 May, 2010, 21:40

Does Peter LaVelle ever take any "constructive" criticism? It amazes me that a man such as Peter does not welcome comments that go against his viewpoint. Sometimes, people develop traits which inhibit logical thinking and I think that Peter is completely "brainwashed" when it comes to Russo-American relations. Peter often calls it
"pragmatism", however, I believe it is called being very naive'.


Adrian Kessler

20 May, 2010, 18:15

I used to watch Peter Lavelle's comments/programme avidly when I could get RT on my telly. No longer, unfortunately as I moved.

I was wondering whether Peter is still commenting, as there seems to be little on his blog? Hope he is still going strong.
Best regards, A. Kessler


Vladimir

09 May, 2010, 14:00

Hello,
I am very happy that we people of Serbia could watch Russia today and can hear informations from other side.
This means we are tired of Western point of view. We Serbians dont have capacity to stand against tirany of our common historic enemies. In our perspective same forces are doing same things and what has been happening in 1990ies in Yugoslavia is identically whith what was happening in 1940ies. Germans satelites Croats fascist came on power and with same mathods and ideas use agresive methods against Serbs and outcome is that they expuld Serbs, what have left of them in Croatia after Genocide in WW2 where they were more than 35% of population. All this offcourse whith german and Vatican assitance and unfortunately USA assistance. Now they are only 2%. in Croatia!!! Same is in Bosnia and same about Kosovo and Albanians fanatics. Vatican took great part in Genocide in WW2 and Katolik church in Croatian supported massive horrible way of execcution of elder man Serbs and convertation of little children in Katolicism. Estimately both in Croatia and Bosnia more than 1 million Serbs were brutally killed. Civillians and very often children and women. Can You please make your own investigation and cover this stoty and pay more attention on Kosovo issue and Criminal activites of Western countries against Serbian population and our south province Kosovo and Metohija which they have took from us.

Best regrads,
Vladimir


johnx

06 May, 2010, 03:23

Why is RT not covering the Karadicz trial?


Aleksandar Hranov

05 May, 2010, 03:31

"Decisions are of value only when they are made freely. When it is done under pressure by a power, it is naturally undemocratic."
What do you think of this statement?.. Pls don't try to find out who said that before you give an answer.
Why is it that anybody who makes sense today has to be presented to the greater public as 'evil' or 'not making any sence'? And, really, are we people, the human race, so easily controllable, so ready to give up our most basic right - to think for ourselves?
If I sound too negative It's just because it is a great disappointment for me to watch how the vast majority of people nowdays are so easily manipulated into believing this or that.

BR
Aleks
(just thinking aloud..)


johnx

03 May, 2010, 05:38

Russia is in the situation it is in now because for reasons that totally escape me it refuses to mention the fact which it must have plenty of evidence that these are manoeuvres against Russia and Eurasia especially in regards to this terrorist threat and with US led operations in Afghanistan the have billions of dollars in financial capital from heroin trade to engulf the whole Eurasia region and Russia into a disastrous civil war with use of biological and chemical weapons for the destabilisation of Russia.

1917 redux.

This would be revealed if Russia put a full effort and outstanding issues like the like the Litvenenko affair that would put Britain on the spot of involvement with Berezovsky and MI6 of Plutonium smuggling scheme to name but one instance.

Yet Russian commentators and RT can even admit that all these groups are financed by foreign states and backers. European mosques are revolving doors as far as Chechnya goes.


daxure

03 May, 2010, 00:27

no,no,no.. He's not just anti-american He's communist friendly Ex-KGB junior informator :)


Fred

26 April, 2010, 15:47

You are good presentator, but just too much anti american, do you have other topic than just anti american issue???


Jaime

25 April, 2010, 04:08

If there is foreign investment in the terrorist group that are responsible for the latest metro attack in Moscow, then it should be bought to light. Because they are also responsible and accountable for the carnage.


Anni

24 April, 2010, 18:27

Why has Poland been left to deal with this catastrophe on its own?
Merkel could have at least attended the funeral, she would have been there in a couple of hours by helicopter. The country is virtually leaderless and getting no support from its EU or NATO allies!


Anni

22 April, 2010, 02:46

It is very sad that the western politicians couldn't attend the funeral of the Polish president, the one who was swaying the fraud gold currency system. The unvisible ash cloud prevented to fly to Poland, and the western politicians weren't able to use other means (train, ships) to get there...
And how convenient to certain, soon Europe will be full of cheap air route businesses and cheap countries on the brink of bancruptcy, just ripe to be harvested...
This is hypocrisy. This is lame.


Aleksandar Hranov

20 April, 2010, 01:55

Peter,
I was just reading all the 'thank you Russia' comments from all the Polish people regarding the article "Polish president killed in air crash near Russia's Smolensk" (Published 10 April, 2010, 21:40), when my wife (proud Westerner - French) peaks over my shoulder and says: "What, they're thanking the Russians for killing their president?" ..
I was first stunned for a few seconds, then pissed!..
You see, she does not care at all about politics (like a tipical French really) and hates, and knows very little about history, but I've been watching and commenting this story at home for a while now.. and this is still her natural, off-the-top-of-her-head, without-thinking, first reaction to a "Thank you Russia" comment from a Polish person.. .
If anything it only shows how well you've chosen the topic here; Western media (even French, which is much less Russophobic) has done a very good job of totally brainwashing its own people. They cannot think for themselves anymore, but just spit in the open preprogrammed behaviour. Sure I've met some exceptions, but they only confirm the rule: the general population, which form the image, are just poor lost souls. It's like they managed to build a 'Berlin wall' into the heart of every single one of these 'chosen ones' and no matter how heard you try, you cannot penetrate it.
Do I believe in miracles? I mean, if Polish people managed to wake up because of this huge tragedy, maybe Westerners will manage one day too?!.. I'm not so optimistic. I hope I'm wrong.

BR
Aleks (from Bulgaria)

ps. ..fighting this virtual 'Berlin wall' every day of my life.. :)


10 March, 2010, 16:55
Whose news is it anyway?
09 February, 2010, 15:09
Challenging the Western media hegemony
About author

Peter Lavelle is the host of RT's week in review programme In Context, and was the anchor of the commentary series IMHO (In my humble opinion). And RT viewers can expect to find Peter in the news studio commenting on breaking events. This includes live press conferences and when decision makers meet anywhere in the world.

Peter Lavelle has extensive experience in academia and the world of business. He did his doctoral studies at the University of California in Eastern European and Russian studies. He has lived in Eastern Europe and Russia for a better part of the last 25 years. During that time he was a lecturer at the University of Warsaw, a market researcher for Colgate-Palmolive, an investment analyst for a number of respected brokerage firms, including Russia’s Alfa Bank.

In the realm of media, Peter Lavelle is widely published. He has written for Asia Times Online, Moscow Times, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, United Press International, In the National Interest, and Current History – to mention only a few.

Peter enjoys reading, films, long walks through Moscow, and caring for his two dogs. Viewers are invited to read his daily blog, below.

Peter Lavelle also has an Internet discussion group on Russia:

http://groups.google.com/group/Untimely_Thoughts_An_Expert_Discussion_Group_on_Russia