Caught on wrong foot, Gazprom sees market go elsewhere
Published: 16 December, 2009, 17:32
Edited: 18 December, 2009, 11:52
Gazprom has been the major exception amongst global gas producers in the economic downturn. It has lost market share in Europe, keeping prices high, while rival producers, like Qatar, have sold gas more cheaply.
This story, like most other analysis, tends to look at one dimension and ignore others. I agree with Brian that the Ukrainian steeling of gas, and the subsequent shutoff of supplies, had some unintended consequences, especially in the light of the economic slump. But there is more to it then meets the eye. The spot market, like Qatar, is a funny creature. The prices are not realistic at all. This are "come on" prices, that have a political dimension. On one hand, it cuts into Gazprom's business. But on the other hand, gets Nabucco screamers off European back. The "Russian alternative" is here, and is working. This will keep any potential private sector investor in Nabucco running far away. Since there is plenty of future need to satisfy, Russia is hurt only in the very short term, with long term benefits being actually enhanced. By developing a more diversified market for gas, including liquefied gas, gas exporting countries will learn how to protect their interests in THEIR infrastructure --- whether it is gas pipelines, or gas liquification plants --- and keep their market. Otherwise, the benefit would go to the capital-controlling groups that would muscle in and build infrastructure at the expense of both, producer and the consumer. Nabucco is the exhibit number one in that approach. As Nord Stream becomes a reality, and South Stream slowly takes shape across possible two corridors --- the Balkans and Italy --- the suppliers and consumers become the co-investors in infrastructure, cutting the costs and creating mutual dependencies. All that Qatar did was diffuse the Ukrainian mess, create a favorable spot market, and give Russia and Europe some quality time to move projects along. Good work everyone.










There is another issue affecting Gazprom natural gas sales. When Ukraine was stealing gas, Russia / Gazprom cut off the gas to Europe. While I can sympathize with the problem of stopping this theft, it also showed Europe that Russia is an unreliable partner. For example, what did other European nations do wrong that they deserved to have their gas shut off? Russia / Gazprom have an image problem over gas. When this decision was made I knew it would create problems later. Russia has to provide this critical energy in a rock solid, reliable manner, and this perception will fade over time. When problems arise with a country that steals gas, Russia must punish only the guilty, without ill effects on the innocent, or do nothing at all. This is my opinion, you may disagree. I'm not saying that Gazprom's estimate of market demand did not cause a problem, I'm sure it did, just that the issue above is also likely a problem and I have not seen any discussions on it in news stories here.