Central Asia and Russia: Gas partners
Published: 11 September, 2009, 17:16
Edited: 14 September, 2009, 07:15
President Dmitry Medvedev heads to the Caspian and Central Asia this weekend for talks with Russia's gas suppliers. Business RT spoke with Mikhail Krutikhin, Partner at Rusenergy about the significance of the links.
Additonally, it is unwise to speculate on the nature of Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan problem. Even if both countries have no problems, puting down pipeline under Caspian Sea would not be possible under the current legal framework. Even if we eliminate the fact tha there is no agreement, one has to understand the complexities in trying to do something unilaterally. This is not to belittle efforts that NABUCCO supporters are putting in their project. They have just as much right as anybody else to compete. For the countries of the Caspian, this is much more. This is the question of their future, of the future of their region, and relationships that go beyond energy deals. Turkmenistan cannot easily harm Kazahstan by getting out of the existing pipeline agreement. Turkmenistan may not like Georgia as a transit country, as the politics is something Turkmenistan avoids. But pinning hopes on success of Turkish-Armenian breakthrough, may put Azerbaijan on the spot, as it cannot easily deal with the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. And Turkmenistan is not indiferent what will happen in Iran. And this is where role of Russia carries a great deal of weight. It is not my goal to analyse the complexities of Caspian energy geopolitics, just merely to illustrate that analysts need to be a great deal more sophisticated, and avoid the oversimplifications. "Bad Gazprom", may not turn out to be that bad, and Turkmenistan may end up impaling itself on the fence they constantly straddle. Russia and Kazahstan are also stakeholders, and have just as much right to say what goes on or under Caspian, certainly more then out of area powers. And Iran has its own interests, the largest of them is the support of its neighbours. As the casual banter is racheting up on TV about possible "bombing" of Iran, Iran's neighbors need to be concerned about their own security. Russia has much to offer here, but even neutral Turkmenistan may have to appreciate Russia's position.










Just watched the full interview, and was struck, absolutely struck, by the tendency of most Russian analysts to JUMP to conclusions, even when they cannot possibly have the facts to state the bold things they bombastically advance. The notion that Russia and Gazprom have an interest in keeping the dispute between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan going, is outrageous. This is pure speculation, that feeds rummors, and then gets to be splattered all over the Western media, as yet another "proof" of Russia's "agressiveness". And who is providing the proof? Gullable Russian media, giving media space to careless and sloppy analysts. This is not the first time that I was shocked by such lack of decorum or restraint in offering the public insights into a very important aspect of Russian energy and foreign policy. It is true that Medvedev is on a "fence mending" mission. The relationships between Gazprom and Turkmenistan have deteriorated, and it is time for the top leaders to review the mess. As in any situation, it takes two to tango. Gazprom may not be the sole villain in the story. The subtext to the story is Turkmenistan's objective of staying neutral, and outside of regional organizations. But what always happens to "neutrality", sooner or later, the complex commercial issues give way to political considerations. Turkmenistan has been courted heavily by US/UK energy majors, and one can deduce from the nature of problems that Turkmenistan was having some change of heart, and slowing down Gazprom's efforts, especially in the new exploration. It may have looked to the Turkmeni side as a sensible position, just stay on the fence as long as possible. But Gazprom was loosing money, and reacted --- probably overreacted. It is now up to the leadership to sort it out. Turkmenistan cannot profit from the waiting game that EU/US would like them to play. They, like others, need money. This spat will be ironed out, at least partially.