Rouble a spectator in currency drive to the bottom
Published: 08 October, 2010, 18:11
Edited: 10 October, 2010, 18:54
With Finance ministers and heads of the Central banks calling for a halt to the currency wars, experts say commodity rich Russia remains a safe harbor.
As Russia and Brazil need to export manufactures, and not just raw materials, the forced devaluation of Asian currencies (yuan, yen and won) is hurting Russia and Brazil more than anybody else. So there has to be an Accord between the U.S., Eurozone, Canada, the U.K., Russia and Brazil to buy Asian currencies (yuan, yen and won) avoiding the present devaluation race from Asian currencies. None of us want a World devaluation which leads towards Recession. It is very dangerous. Devaluation of Asian currencies (yuan, yen and won) have destroyed European and American industrial corporations during the last decades, ending with one industry after another. Only Germany has been successful to resist that forced Asian devaluation. And Germany did it thanks to fixed exchange rates in the Eurozone. But now that many Eurozone nations are in recession Germany also needs to export manufactures to Asian countries, first of all China (also Japan and S.Korea) So an agreement between U.S., Russia, Eurozone, Brazil, U.K. and Canada to buy yuans, yens and wons is the only possibility to avoid the present trend towards a World Recession.
Discussing economy is a subject frought with danger. Hence, a non-expert tends to be intimidated by the concepts that experts brandish. The problem is, after a while, even a non-expert catches on --- nobody really knows what is going on. Expert theories have been proven so wrong time and again. Having learned to be cautious, one cannot but become aware of the inconsistencies and contradictions. For example, it has been adopted almost as a mantra, that Russia needs to diversify, which has been mostly interpreted as development of export-bound manufacturing. Yet, this appears to be the last thing Russia needs in the era of export being seen as a salvation to economic woes to 90% of the world. With economies addicted to export, such as Japan, China, India and others that are in consumer goods production, reorientation can come with difficulties. And what kind of reorientation, as there is no one size fit all. Russia is in a very good spot, in that it needs to crank up manufacturing of goods for its own consumption. Less money spent on imports is more money saved for its other needs. Clearly, importing is the most logical path in a number of products, but not all. Yes, it further diminishes the world trade volume, but it contributes to the restructuring of world trade that is long overdue. Increase in the cost of energy would be beneficial as well; much of the shipping around the world, trading in low-cost goods will become unprofitable. Increased production of food closer to home would help the environment by reducing shipping carbons, and increasing quality. The most difficulties I see for Japan that desparately needs to export, and US that has little domestic production capacity, and too dependent on imports. Unfortunatelly, both Japan and US have high debt-to-GDP ratio to help each other.
The Boom and Bust of the Capitalist process has added to the amplitude of the average bust with an exploding Global financial bubble. Meanwhile the other side of this production process raises the temperature around the planet. As stellar commodity production launches the first of many extinction threats to the human species(I'm not counting any of the new threats that are bound to emerge once the weapons of capitalist states become capable of initiating nuclear winters etc). On this basis whatever the New World order looks like I'm sure any reanimated Dinosaur would recognize it as home.










Indeed Professor Rogift is absolutely right by stating that currency warfare slows down economic growth and one of the reason I agree is that a lot of mechanical abuse and manipulation of the controversial notion of the 'invisible hand' by leading industrial states creating unnecessary transmission of latent shock waves that ripple outwards distorting as well as disrupting the entire free market economy at a large scale. By doing so the economics of scope is virtually distressed in the longer term for which the opportunity is so high that artificially manipulated models in the form of quantitative easing is only a pat in the back indicating to all do not worry everything would be fine when actually the outcome in reality an outrageous development of a very volatile capital market system which today is more of a breeding ground for toxic waste within all economies world wide. However, the US and its allies are far ahead and are masters of the notion termed 'strategy' but the world all over is mastering the enigmatic force or notion that is subsisting within the realms of capitalistic business culture and the Chinese are not thick in the head, they've picked up the gist while the Russians keep a watch eye but working had in modernising its own infrastructures with determination in terms of innovation and diversification. Hope it will catch up one day...there is always positive hope for which the possibility for betterment lies in the hands of committed and responsible people of the world . In the light of the above, very soon the rest of the world will get the gist and all shall be allies to a new world order. So US and it allies must create the space or re-direct and change their strategies. These are the benefits of competition, it leads to the death of complacencies over time. Regards