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Estonia braces for change as Russian exports move from home

Published: 12 February, 2010, 19:38
Edited: 24 February, 2010, 15:34


Russia is renovating its railroads and sea ports - all part of plan to bypass transit countries when exporting energy products. That means neighbours like Estonia are looking to move from stable cashflows.

 
11 COMMENTS
Katrina February 13, 2010, 15:12 quote
0

Good for Russia! How shortsighted of Estonia to comprise its long term economic relations with Russia in order to play into the hands of U.S geopolitical strategy. Russia is doing the right thing by figuring out to exclude or at least minimize its dependence of hostile nations as transit partners. Once the economic fallout start to bit, the ordinary people will turn against the puppet pro U.S anti-Russia leaders.

European February 13, 2010, 17:08 quote
0

Great move! Russia should lessen as much as possible its dependance on Estonia and all such parasites. It is not fair a fistfull of people just 1,3 million (Estonia) to live just on the cashflows coming from a huge country as Russia.

Jorge February 14, 2010, 12:07 quote
0

This is good for Estonia because it will enable them to focus more of their energies on building a high-tech diverse, northern European economy, rather than still trying to live off the scraps of Russian trade. It will also further undermine the position of the anti-reform, pro-Russian political elite in Estonia that is dependent on such trade, which is good for Estonia in the long run. The switch to the euro next year will supposedly draw more Swedish investments, and the integration of Estonia into the Nordic community will continue.

Srbin February 14, 2010, 14:07 quote
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Yes we can, Vice President Biden has assured Estonians that Washington is considering subsidizing any monies lost due to loss of business with Russia.

Riga February 14, 2010, 14:57 quote
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Totally agree Katrina and European. Baltic country have for many year taken with one hand and put a knife in Russia back with the adder hand. Some people in this country have seen this for a long time but they didnt have the power to change the policy. Let the baltic states try to make there one money, I dont think they will be abel to do so. Let them ask US for help since they love them so much. Its payback to all the facist. Good luck Russia. Its the right way to do it. Must this terminal be a good investment for you.

stole February 15, 2010, 06:51 quote
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Estonians will wish ethnic Russians were never expelled from their country and automatic citizenship was granted to them without Standard Naturalisation Legislation. In Estonia, out of 44% ethnic Russians now there are only 25% due to ethnic cleansing with soft power. This country has taken a fascist twist which proves the fact that they removed Soviet World War II memorial, the Bronze Soldier, which was a symbol for victory over the Nazi. Their independence is being built on shaky grounds. Good luck Estonia.

stole February 15, 2010, 10:14 quote
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Jprge, To build high-tech diverse, northern European economy Estonia needs huge money, skilled workforce, internal and external market which has none of it. For an established company to invest in high-tech production in Estonia it is not viable because your domestic market is to insignificant, Russian market is closed for Estonia for obvious reasons and your labour is too high, especially when you switch to Euro next year and you supposedly Swedish investment in Estonia will remain only wishful thinking. For Estonia to start from scratch exploring high-tech development is simply inaccessible because you have no chance competing on the World stage against giants and the venture would be too expensive for your bankrupt state which lives on US subsidies. The most realistic development for your country is polishing Russian leftover scrap and reselling it to survive. With this partnership Russia will find a solution for its industrial waste.

European February 15, 2010, 12:39 quote
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@ Jorge, Dear Jorge, nice said but impossible! Jorge it is impossible for Estonia to develop a high-tech industry. - Because it is very small country with 1,3 million population (such a small population doesn’t have a human potential) - Because it has a very small absolute GDP ($ 18 billion – the smallest in the EU and Estonia is at 101st position in the world, ranking among the smallest countries measured by Country's GDP size in the World). BUT High-tech industries need huge initial investments => Impossible task for Estonia with this GDP. OK but let’s assume even in this case they will be able to create something innovative, do you think they will be able to sell their product/s? Since they are in the EU it is the most important market for Estonia. EU is a market with very high market saturation so I don’t think they will be able to compete with Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Austria and so on… => mission impossible. Ok, now let’s consider the case that Estonia’s main investor (Sweden) will try to help them. If you check you can find out that Sweden is one of the countries hardest hit by the economic crisis in Europe (i.e. Sweden’s GDP in 2008 – $ 480 billion, Sweden’s GDP in 2009 - $395 billion). So for the next couple of years Sweden should better concentrate on its internal economic problems and I don’t think Sweden will be able to splash out money as prior to the crisis. So to be honest, in my view Estonia will face more and more economic obstacles in the near future. Furthermore, what is so unique in Estonia... what can an investor find there? Of course I don’t have anything against Estonia, since I am from the EU member country as well and we are one society, but this is the truth – we should simply say the truth.

Jorge February 15, 2010, 15:06 quote
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@ European What you should realize is that most Western investors (and probably Russia too) have stayed away from Estonia because it is, like you said, a small market. The investors who have stayed and continue to invest since 1991 are the Swedes and Finns, though, because to them, 1.3 million is not a small amount of people (Sweden is nearly 10 million people, Finland is 5 million people). It's like growing their domestic market by a fifth or a tenth. You are right about Sweden's internal troubles, but take a long-term perspective. Swedes have been Estonia's traditional investors since '91, they have been supportive of Estonia's EU integration, and, in the long term, they'll stay because, outside of Sweden, it is one of the few places on earth of which they are total masters. Estonia would benefit from being more tightly wound with that economy because, like you mention, their worker productivity is high, Estonia's is low. Swedish workers are on average better skilled, better educated, healthier, and more productive than Estonians are at the moment. If you introduced similar standards in Estonia, though, you'd see productivity go up. Relying on reselling Russian scrap, as some other poster pointed out, is not really an option because, as this article points out, Russia is interested in capturing all the money it can, as its current economy is so dependent on the sale of energy. and why wouldn't they do that? It makes sense for them.

Jorge February 15, 2010, 15:28 quote
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@ stole Where do you get your facts? First, demography. Russians have never been 44 percent of the population of Estonia. In 1934, they were 8 percent of the population. in 1959 20 percent of the population, in 1989, 30 percent of the population, in 2009, 25 percent. As in Russia, the Russian population of Estonia declines because of a number of factors including emigration and lower life expectancy due at least partially to environmental factors (pollution, poor lifestyle). Russians are also declining proportionally within Russia (where they are now less than 80 percent of the total population). It's not a trend unique to Estonia. The ethnic Estonian population is declining, too, though not at the same rate. Second, that war memorial was removed to a military cemetery in Tallinn to the benefit of some Estonian politicians, who partially won an election because of their patriotic credentials and also to the great benefit of others.The local activists were lavished with media attention. It was useful for Russia, which always needs an external enemy to prop up support for its "tandem" leadership. Putin got to give a very stirring speech that victory day to show off his patriotic credentials. I am sure his approval ratings might have gone up a few points after that affair and since he can't be voted out of office, approval ratings are all he really has. The Russian elite would have really benefited from that affair had they not demanded the Estonian government step down or had their Kremlin youth harass the Estonian and Swedish ambassadors. The Estonian government might have really had to resign thanks to that controversy, but, ironically, it was the Russians who managed to keep them in power. It's an oddly mutual beneficial relationship between the Estonian and Russian elite. One could presume that they plan these things together to stay in power :)

jako777 February 23, 2010, 20:59 quote
+1

FINALLY ! Great move Russia, isolate those Russo-phoebes completely!

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