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19.01.2009, 03:06

Chronology of Russia-Ukraine gas war

The current gas cuts are the culmination of a long gas war between Russia and Ukraine, RT looks back at its latest chapter, starting back in October 2007 and the ongoing crisis which is now being felt all around Europe.

19.01.2009, 02:39

Gas dispute close to end

Russia and Ukraine are due to sign a gas deal on Monday, which will allow the two sides to resume transit of Russian fuel to European customers.

15.01.2009, 22:30

Rouble weakens again

Russia's Central Bank again widened the rouble's trading band against the bi-currency basket on Thursday. This time it was by 50 kopecks instead of 30 – which has increased the pace of devaluation.

Gas dispute over. Or is it?

Published: 19 January, 2009, 10:00

AFP Photo / Prime Minister Press-Service Pool / Alexander Prokopenko

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Energy experts have warned the gas dispute may not be over, despite Premiers Putin and Timoshenko agreeing a supply and transit price at the weekend. Even if the Ukrainian agrees to terms, there are doubts it can pay.

The heads of Gazprom and Naftogaz work out the fine print to supply Russian gas to Ukraine, and on to Europe. But if Kiev was unable to pay last year's $179, it's hard to see how in 2009 it can find almost double that according to Chris Weafer, Chief Strategist at Uralsib.

“Ukraine is talking with the IMF on a loan of about $15 Billion, and without that money Ukraine's economy is technically bust. Ukraine could hardly afford the price it was paying for gas last year, the heavily discounted price. They certainly can't afford to pay anything close to European market prices.”

The fact Ukraine's prepared to cut off Europe's blue fuel and destroy its reputation, shows just how desperate it is according to Vitaly Ermakov from Cambridge Energy Research associates.

“The calculation on the Ukrainian side was to play a waiting game. Because they were fully aware that the gas prices are going to decline in Europe, on the back of falling oil prices. Ukraine's calculation was to survive through the winter and then negotiate a better deal. But this did not work, this did not work as intended, and it essentially resulted in huge disruption of supply, and this crisis. It tells volumes about how desperate how Ukraine is in terms of its finances. It just doesn't have any money.”

Add President Yuschenko's history of questioning the authority of Naftogaz and Timoshenko after they've done deals with Gazprom in the past – and experts warn Kiev's Cold War could once again spread to Europe.

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AFP Photo / Genia Savilov 16.01.2009, 08:35

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