Polish shale could muscle into EU gas market
Published: 09 April, 2010, 21:21
Edited: 16 September, 2010, 12:13
TAGS: Markets, Commodities, Russia and the global economy, Gas
US energy giant Conoco Philips will launch Poland's first shale gas project next month, with the announcement sparking claims Poland could become a rival for Gazprom in Europe.
Promoters of shale gas say it will offer a plentiful supply of affordable energy. But many remain sceptical, and accuse companies of disguising the high extraction costs.
Promises of new energy sources appeal to European consumers – who have debated how to reduce their dependence on Russian gas. But is shale gas – extracted by drilling between rock fissures – the answer?
Reiner Hartmann, Managing Director of E.ON Russia believes it could change markets significantly.
“In the US it’s already considered a game changer – that means that the US is reducing their import of LNG drastically. What does it mean for Europe? Qatar will redirect it to a market that has been predominated by the Russian supplies.”
Large deposits of shale gas have been discovered in Poland. If proved, its gas reserves could jump by almost 50 % and US energy companies have already secured licences to extract it. At the same time Poland has extended its contract to buy Russian gas until 2037. Leonid Grigoryev, President of the Energy and Finance Institute, says that’s because shale gas extraction requires huge investment.
“Shale gas is very complicated to extract – you have to drill a great number of shallow wells. It’s very expensive. Poland may gradually develop it, but it doesn’t mean that Poland or any other European country will stop buying Russian gas. Shale gas was in demand in the US when oil and gas prices went up. By the way, Russia may have large reserves of shale gas as well. But it won’t change the market as it only makes sense with very high oil and gas prices.”
But Gazprom faces another competitor – tankers full of liquefied natural gas sailing from the Persian gulf. If Qatar starts selling more LNG on Europe’s spot market Gazprom would face further price competition. It's long term gas contracts are twice as expensive as the spot market – and Gazprom lost market share last year.
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Over the course of six months last year, Canada's National Energy Board shifted from a prediction that the decline in conventional gas output would far outstrip new shale supplies, to saying that shale gas could satisfy domestic demand "far into the 21st century" and spur exports of liquefied natural gas. The shifting landscape is forcing investors to rethink projects. A gas shipping terminal in the city of Kitimat on Canada's West Coast was originally planned to import gas, but in 2008 the terminal owners, Kitimat LNG Inc., realized that shale gas could boost Canada's output and redesigned it to export LNG. The C$4.1 billion project is scheduled to begin construction this year, and to begin operation in 2014. Yet the potential shale gas revolution in the U.S. means that Canada will have to find global buyers for any natural gas exports, via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): "Our view is that you need all the shale gas, you need all the frontier gas and you probably need LNG [imports] on top of that," TransCanada Chief Operating Officer Russell Girling said at a recent conference in British Columbia. Girling said any excess supplies will be eaten away by the decline in conventional gas, the growing demand from Canada's oil sands industry--which uses natural gas to create steam for bitumen extraction, and new demand from utilities and the transportation sector. Too much gas or not, Canada will likely have to find more customers for its gas, since its traditional buyer, the U.S., is oversupplied. Recent NEB data show that Canadian gas exports to the U.S. declined 11% in the first 11 months of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier
Meanwhile, pricing trends are currently positive for the company, Nesterov notes. Last year, the average price of LNG in America's Henry Hub was $142 per 1,000 cubic meters, and in March this year, it had risen to $154 per 1,000 cubic meters. The US Department of Energy forecasts that the average price next year will be around $192 per 1,000 cubic meters. However, Gazprom is selling gas in Europe right now for $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, East European Gas Analysis (USA) General Director Mikhail Korchemkin says. And that means the concern will find it better to pay more attention to the European market for now











I am stunned at the low --- almost farsical --- level of understanding of shale coal gas deposits. There is a great deal of deception, pressure, fear and greed, all wrapped up in one when it comes to energy. We can rattle off all the statistics and be wrong. Russian company makes better profits then others, but it will not have a good market value. Markets, as anyone paying attention lately, are not free. Stock markets are litteraly remote controlled, when traders "buy" millions of shares differentiated only by a fraction of a penny, just to sell them virtually immediately. The prices of oil and gas, as well as the "known" reserves, are manipulated numbers. Enter shale coal gas deposits. Plentiful. Technology is here! But it is a bait for the ignorant and greedy. The whole point in starting in US is not to really do it for real, but to SELL the technology and buy the rights in other countries. I do not believe that such environmental MONSTER will be unleashed on population. The "fracking" technology, that injects water and chemicals (NOT DISCLOSED) into the shale rock to crack it, and release gas, causes other gases to escape into soil and drinking water. For now, methane has come up, but it could be easily carbon monoxide and dioxide. There is no controlling the cracking process. When volcanic activity cracked such rocks in Cameron, the gas escaped first into a lake, and then into the atmosphere and killed thousands farmers who were within 150 meter altitude from the lake. Drilling SHALLOW, is for birds. The "fracking" occurs at the depths BELOW the water table. Given that it is expensive, does not yield much, and DANGEROUS, I think that the hype is just to get licensing agreements with countries that will not mind being poisoned.