Polish shale could muscle into EU gas market
Published: 09 April, 2010, 21:21
Edited: 16 September, 2010, 12:13
US energy giant Conoco Philips will launch Poland's first shale gas project next month, with the announcement sparking claims Poland could become a rival for Gazprom in Europe.
US is bankrupt anyway! Lukoil, 20%-owned by US oil producer ConocoPhillips (COP), proposed paying a total of RUB44.23 billion in dividends, equal to 21% of 2009 net profit In the beginning of 2000, USA has developed new technological processes in extracting shale gas. Subsequently, this type of stock has become much more profitable. As from 1990 to date shale gas extraction in the United States has increased by four times significantly reducing prices on raw stocks. Unfortunately for the Kremlin, yet another event last week may doom all of these carefully laid plans. A press release by the American oil and gas exploration company Wood Mackenzie announced the discovery of huge quantities of shale gas in Northern Poland and its imminent exploitation by American companies holding 44 licenses to do that. For Poland, which currently imports three-quarters of the natural gas it needs from Russia, the 47 trillion cubic feet of gas discovered would suffice for 200 years of present consumption. The discovery further boosts proven E.U. gas resources by almost 50 percent and will almost certainly transform Poland into a major exporter to those neighboring countries that have also been at the receiving end of Russian energy blackmail. Even before this find, Central and Eastern European countries decided at an “Energy Security Summit” in Budapest last February to unify their gas transportation and LNG networks in order to achieve greater energy independence from Russia. With the Polish gas discovery and similar large finds of unconventional gas predicted for Hungary, Austria, and elsewhere, this energy independence could become a reality in just a few years. It would be poetic justice indeed if the Molotov-Ribbentrop pipeline is then transformed from an instrument of blackmail into an undersea white elephant.
Russia is bankrupt anyway! Viktor Yanukovych and his camp can breathe easier since the agreement with Russia guarantees Ukraine will get a 30 percent discount on imported gas. Without the discount Kyiv would not be able to restrain its budget deficit below 6 percent of GDP since it would have to continue subsidizing gas sold to households who would otherwise not be able to afford the current rate of 330 USD per 1000 cubic meters. Yanukovych‘s foreign policy advisor Leonid Kozhara said at the end of March that bringing Ukraine close to the EU continues to be the number one priority of the current administration. For analysts familiar with the people who have accompanied Yanukovych into the corridors of power, however, there is an unmistakeable feeling of deja vous harking back to the days of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma when those around him benefited the most from a very non-transparent gas trade and other business activities. “We could be seeing a throwback to the Kuchma era where the current government seeks to cut deals with all neighbors in an effort to keep everyone happy while its members continue to enrich themselves at the expense of the nation’s welfare”, said Soukup.
Poland’s relations with Russia have been genuinely transformed or if the changes are just cosmetic. Some see realpolitik at work, assuming that Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, considers it worth making minor concessions over historical questions in order to fix relations with its large western neighbour, particularly given growing awareness of Poland's potential gas reserves. As for the Polish business lobby, profits in Russia loom larger than fiddly questions about history and justice. The biggest question is about Russia. Openness about Katyn and Stalinist crimes against Poland inexorably leads to questions about the still greater crimes of the communists against Russians themselves. Pull on the thread of truth and all sorts of things will start to unravel. Why is the mass murderer Lenin, the author of the Red Terror, still venerated on Red Square? Answers on a postcard to Mr Putin. According to a stunning, nearly 200-page analytical report released last week by the United Nations (see page 24): The threat of depletion of Russia’s proven and accessible oil resources in 20-30 years time has become a real threat, mainly because of inadequate exploration in the past decade and more difficult extraction conditions, which require work in remote regions with harsh climate. Even during the recent boom years (2002–2008) the depletion date came nearer (from 26.3 to 21.9 years) (Figure 1.8). Reserve replacement is progressing very slowly and the crisis has clearly worsened the situation. The situation with natural gas reserves is better, mainly due to huge deposits, which are sufficient for 70 years of production. But the expected depletion date for natural gas has moved closer by 9.4 years in the last decade, canceling out reserve replacement.
Censor is for stupid idiots Isn't US ConocoPhilips and Lukoil all part of the same company or own a percentage of Lukoil? Anyone know for sure, no guesses please! US is bankrupt anyway! Lukoil, 20%-owned by US oil producer ConocoPhillips (COP), proposed paying a total of RUB44.23 billion in dividends, equal to 21% of 2009 net profit US is bankrupt anyway! and Russia Today is for stupid brainwashed idiots Last month, ConocoPhillips announced it will sell half of its 20% stake in LUKOIL
Gazprom = No. 1 Is it just me, or does the image to the right strike fear into your heart as well? Talk about strategic lighting. But there are other, non-architectural reasons to fear Gazprom, according to a new Forbes 2000 - a list of the world's biggest and most powerful companies, which puts Gazprom as the world's number one in terms of profits, which it counts as an annual $24.33 billion. What's most interesting about this new data are the discrepancies between profit positions and market value. Gazprom's profits put it well ahead of its competitors, yet it doesn't make the top 30 in terms of market value, implying that despite its huge profits, it is a less attractive investment prospect than PetroChina or ExxonMobil...the implication being that Russian politics remains a deterrent, even where the payoff is potentially high.
Meanwhile, pricing trends are currently positive for the company, Nesterov notes. Last year, the average price of LNG in America's Henry Hub was $142 per 1,000 cubic meters, and in March this year, it had risen to $154 per 1,000 cubic meters. The US Department of Energy forecasts that the average price next year will be around $192 per 1,000 cubic meters. However, Gazprom is selling gas in Europe right now for $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, East European Gas Analysis (USA) General Director Mikhail Korchemkin says. And that means the concern will find it better to pay more attention to the European market for now
Over the course of six months last year, Canada's National Energy Board shifted from a prediction that the decline in conventional gas output would far outstrip new shale supplies, to saying that shale gas could satisfy domestic demand "far into the 21st century" and spur exports of liquefied natural gas. The shifting landscape is forcing investors to rethink projects. A gas shipping terminal in the city of Kitimat on Canada's West Coast was originally planned to import gas, but in 2008 the terminal owners, Kitimat LNG Inc., realized that shale gas could boost Canada's output and redesigned it to export LNG. The C$4.1 billion project is scheduled to begin construction this year, and to begin operation in 2014. Yet the potential shale gas revolution in the U.S. means that Canada will have to find global buyers for any natural gas exports, via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): "Our view is that you need all the shale gas, you need all the frontier gas and you probably need LNG [imports] on top of that," TransCanada Chief Operating Officer Russell Girling said at a recent conference in British Columbia. Girling said any excess supplies will be eaten away by the decline in conventional gas, the growing demand from Canada's oil sands industry--which uses natural gas to create steam for bitumen extraction, and new demand from utilities and the transportation sector. Too much gas or not, Canada will likely have to find more customers for its gas, since its traditional buyer, the U.S., is oversupplied. Recent NEB data show that Canadian gas exports to the U.S. declined 11% in the first 11 months of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier
I am stunned at the low --- almost farsical --- level of understanding of shale coal gas deposits. There is a great deal of deception, pressure, fear and greed, all wrapped up in one when it comes to energy. We can rattle off all the statistics and be wrong. Russian company makes better profits then others, but it will not have a good market value. Markets, as anyone paying attention lately, are not free. Stock markets are litteraly remote controlled, when traders "buy" millions of shares differentiated only by a fraction of a penny, just to sell them virtually immediately. The prices of oil and gas, as well as the "known" reserves, are manipulated numbers. Enter shale coal gas deposits. Plentiful. Technology is here! But it is a bait for the ignorant and greedy. The whole point in starting in US is not to really do it for real, but to SELL the technology and buy the rights in other countries. I do not believe that such environmental MONSTER will be unleashed on population. The "fracking" technology, that injects water and chemicals (NOT DISCLOSED) into the shale rock to crack it, and release gas, causes other gases to escape into soil and drinking water. For now, methane has come up, but it could be easily carbon monoxide and dioxide. There is no controlling the cracking process. When volcanic activity cracked such rocks in Cameron, the gas escaped first into a lake, and then into the atmosphere and killed thousands farmers who were within 150 meter altitude from the lake. Drilling SHALLOW, is for birds. The "fracking" occurs at the depths BELOW the water table. Given that it is expensive, does not yield much, and DANGEROUS, I think that the hype is just to get licensing agreements with countries that will not mind being poisoned.










Isn't US ConocoPhilips and Lukoil all part of the same company or own a percentage of Lukoil? Anyone know for sure, no guesses please! US is bankrupt anyway!