Greek crisis may just be beginning for Europe
Published: 19 February, 2010, 10:10
Edited: 22 February, 2010, 17:21
Greece, Athens: Europe cornered Greece on February 16 into preparing drastic new action to rein in its bulging deficit and debts while Athens was immediately hit by a new wave of strikes. (AFP Photo/ Louisa Gouliamaki)
(9.3Mb) embed videoTAGS: EU, Crisis, Europe, Economy
Economists say German tax payers will bear the cost of the Greek debt crisis despite opinion polls showing most Germans oppose it, as the risk of default grows in other countries.
Bankers are the latest to attract blame for the crisis in Greece. German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticised investment banks that helped the Greece to hide its debt. Greek borrowing exploded this year as the financial crisis hit tax revenues and pushed up social costs.
It's expected to reach 120% of GDP this year – putting the Eurozone under pressure to organise a bailout. Renaissance Chief Economist, Aleksey Moiseev says Germany is likely to bear the brunt.
“Certain historical rememberances of WW1, WW2, so Germany always pays and that not only has political connotations but economic, that Germany is the largest European economy. What could be done, is there is an additional contribution arranged to the European budget in a way that Germany would bear the biggest part of it.”
Analysts say, only sheer embarrassment is likely to stop the EU turning to the International Monetary Fund. Greece has also turned on its bankers – but the crisis in Athens has older foundations says Aleksandr Apokin from the Centre for Macroeconomic Studies.
“Greece has a complex tax system that actually collects little tax and it was also steadily increasing its social welfare and salaries just to bring them in line with western standards.”
But many countries, within the eurozone and outside, are also spending beyond their means. Long lives are sadly a part of the problem.
Aleksey Moiseev, say Russia needs to reconsider its newly reformed pension system – to avoid a Greek tragedy.
“Financially, the deficit of the pension fund has become horrendous and has now been principally covered by budget transfers and that’s the principal problem as the population, life expectancy start to increase. And that is clearly we are seeing the same problem that the United States and other countries have, and there is going to be something happening to the pension situation."
At the moment there is little public or political will to cut social spending. Analysts say austerity measures are inevitable when governments admit their comedy of errors.
18.02.2010, 16:46
2 comments
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What a sham! Will stupid people ever wake up and see how are they fleeced? Pension funds are always well funded. From local levels, to the Federal Government, actuarial studies are regularly performed to measure how will the fund pay out its obligations over 20-30 years, assuming a rather conservative return on investment. As millions are contributing to these funds, and the funds are inter and intra generational, not individual, all the PRINCIPAL always stays in the fund. In short, all the plans really pay out no more then they earn on the market --- and in good economic times actually earn over and above obligations. The problem is, government cheat. They treat pension funds not as trust funds, but as their kitty to spend from. Kosovo war was funded from Social Security, that was made public by Republicans then, but now all wars are funded from the non-existent money, so they do not care even to say where the money is coming from. Having bankrupted all public finances, with the colusion of cenral banikers and their financial arms, now they are trying to make a case that it is PENSIONS that are making them bankrupt. In fact, it actually does not matter. When a country owes money to foreign creditors, they do not care what fund is for what, they just want their money back. In some African countries, COLLECTORs HAVE BEEN SENT to sell assets of the state, such as real estate, cars, and anything else state owned, to collect debts. Very few ADVANCED countries spoke against such samefull practice. The talk about pensions is to try to steal more of people's money --- and blame it on them. They just live too long, or retire too early, or other such crap. As if it is not clear that you can actually retire at any age, provided that you contribute a large portion of you income into the fund. As if Morgans and Rockefellers do not know it. Their children ARE BORN WITH RETIREMENT FUNDS, they call trust funds.
It's going to get very painful with regard to public debt in the EU and elswhere, where they have artificially high standard of livings, maintained solely on debt. There is going to be a correction, there has to be, to allign the revenue and expediture. What we will see more and more, is countries aligning their conditions to their real economic performance. Even though it is painful, it is not a bad thing, you cannot keep on living on a credit card, you have to earn the cash, and spend what YOU earn, not what you can borrow, and certainly not what the Germans can earn. There are opportunities here for a cash rich Russia, to buy fire sale assets in the EU, as the normal correction has to happen. There is always the day that you have to ante up for the debt. You can only keep going when there is growth. If you didn't have a plan, or react to the decline, then you will be bankrupt. We all know bankrupt assets are sold at knock down prices for cash. But don't worry so much about pensions, the pension is now split into a government and savings component more heavily, also as life expectancy rises, it is reasonable to reallign the pension age with it, and indeed with normal industrial countries. There are no big fat pensions to pay in Russia, we should raise them, but this can be more than met with correct management of the vast economic potential we have. Basically we will only have a problem, if we incompetently manage the economy. Plenty to do here in terms of building a sustainable pension structure, but compared to EU economies, with fat pensions and ageing population, our problems pale into insignificance. But they must not be ignored. The system is broken, but fixable.












Well actually, EU is controlled by 'City of London'. It is the same bunch of armchair thieves and and thugs that live as parasites on the people who actually produce things.