Nabucco survives as EU priority project
Published: 21 March, 2009, 09:43
Edited: 12 November, 2009, 07:50
The EU Commission has included the Nabucco pipeline in its list of priority projects, which means it will get €200 million from the EU budget to finance the first stage of construction.










The amount, 200 milion euros, is sufficient only to continue exploratory work, staffing and the expenses of the project staff, and the cost of technical, financial and other feasibility studies. The project itself has been put off for two years. It is clear that there is no reliable, large quanity gas to justify the capacity of Nabucco. The various potential sources accross Middle East are not economically feasible, as the tremendous amount of infrastructure would be required just to get anything to Turkey. And the transit countries would, naturally, ask for guaranteed supply. Even assuming that gas from Turkmenistan can be tapped, the projected cost of $10 billion is very optimistic. Double that amount would make more sense. That does not even include the cost of pipe under Caspian, not to mention the lack of support from littoral states. However, not only is Turkmenistan gas committed to Russia through 2028, the new reserves are committed to China. And it appears that some studies that "found" new reserves in Turkmenistan were probably political, creating impression that, indeed, there is gas in Turkmenistan in spite of previous contracts. Much speculation surrounds Nabucco. EU made a wise choice. It will keep on paying for the on-going cost of studies, thereby not upsetting US and UK partners that still hope to wrestle the gas from Caspian. However, the latest agreements between Turkey, Russia and Italy, point to the more realistic scenario. By moving South Stream into Turkish territorial waters, South Stream may end up emerging in Italy via Greece, and not via a branch from Bulgaria. In fact, delay in Balkans will only speed up South Stream's southern branch to Italy, and --- judging by Putnin's deal with Slovenia and Austria --- possible branch from Italy, accross Slovenia to Austria. This will leave the Balkan route of South Stream open to negotiations with Nabucco under "new management".