Shaky markets could still undermine China’s global economic lead
Published: 18 May, 2010, 11:38
Edited: 21 May, 2010, 12:08
Europe's debt crisis is not just threatening prosperity in Eastern Europe and Russia, it's also likely to have an impact on the world's biggest emerging economy, China.
While it is not clear how far this crisis will go, and if it will create another liquidity crisis, the trade issues are not that simple. China depends on imports from Germany to keep its factories supplied with precision tools and machines. These will become much cheaper for China. It is not clear that the exports to Eurozone will fall off. In times of economic belt-tightening, Chinese products can be very competitive on European market. It is far too early to figure this all out. As for oil, it is a mystery. It makes no sense that it is rising and falling in concert with Dow Jones Industrials. But this seems to be the pattern. Stock market on its way up saw oil go up, and now is going down. There is some form of distortion somewhere, as the cost of production, transportation and refining is not going down. Once this distortion clears, oil prices will have to go up --- way up. The explanations based on currency valuation change (i.e., stronger dollar) are not sufficient. At some point, when the markets give up the idea of REFLATING, and the resignation sinks in, markets will settle at the new lows. At that point, some realistic pricing will commence, as at this level, the total cost of exploration, extraction, transportation, etc. exceeds the price on the market.










To avoid the present situation China has to go from pegging the yuan to the USD to peggin it to a basket of currencies (Euro/USD) The Russian rouble could be also part of that basket of currencies in the future. The peg to the USD means that now, with the Euro devalued 30% Chinese exports are becoming expensive. Add that the oil barrel (in $) has increased to almost $80 and wages are also increasing....and Chinese products are losing competitiveness to Mexico, Eastern Europe, Turkey or Morocco...