Yamal gas development waits for demand rebound
Published: 14 January, 2010, 10:16
Edited: 14 January, 2010, 23:36
TAGS: Investment, Natural resources, Economy, Gas
Russia is promising tax breaks to lure foreign investors to strategic gas development projects on the Yamal peninsula, despite current demand levels which make them marginal value.
Gas deposits in the Yamal Peninsula are counted in the trillions of cubic metres, making up about 70% of Russia's reserves. The Bovanenkovo deposit alone may yield 140 billion cubic meters a year. But billions of dollars are needed to extract the fuel from the permafrost, and Artyom Konchin from UniCredit says there is currently insufficient demand to make it worthwhile.
“The biggest problem is that we don’t really see as much of restoration in the consumption volumes and apparently the company itself doesn’t expect the same level of consumption in Europe until 2013. So, we do have a dip and it’s going to be slow to recover on top of new reserves arriving to the European markets in the way of LNG imports or conventional gas production.”
Responding to the demand slide, Gazprom, last year, announced launch delays for both the Bovanenkovo and Shtockman projects until the end of 2012. Dmitry Lyutyagin, chief analyst at Veles Capital says that may interfere with Gazprom's plans to expand its short term presence in the LNG market.
“Russia's share in LNG is now about 2%, but the goal is 20%. The delay of such projects as Bovanenkovo and Shtokman means that the construction of facilities to produce liquefied natural gas will also be postponed.”
Hoping for a fast demand recovery, Russia is keen to pursue the Yamal deposits however, and is inviting foreign investors to take part. Prime Minister Putin, visiting the region, even promised tax breaks for investors developing new gas fields.
But with Gazprom currently a production capacity of about 600 billion cubic metres a year, there is no need to rush. A greater call on available funds coming from transportation projects like Nord Stream and South Stream, or managing its $54 billion debt, and this means that Yamal is likely to be some time away from development.
13.01.2010, 13:35
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Near the end of this decade, liquid fuels made from oil will begin to become unimaginably expensive, as the supply of crude oil can no longer meet global oil demand from China, India, and elsewhere. This will threaten the health of the global economy because, like it or not, we now live in a globalized world. The construction of plants like the Shell Pearl complex in Qatar, which converts natural gas into liquid fuels and other chemicals, will then become very profitable investments. Liquid fuels will be used for transportation for as long as they are available because of their great energy density. Countries like Russia, with huge gas reserves, might want to consider early investment in GTL plants. If I were a Russian, I would start extensive seismic work in the shallow waters in the Russian Arctic, so as to get an idea of what might be up there. Over such a vast area, it could be a whole lot. Studies done by the United States Geological Survey suggests that extensive gas deposits may be found. As an example, an exploration company using the latest seismic technology, just discovered a large gas deposit 4,000 meters below the surface in shallow water just off the Louisiana coast, an area that has been extensively explored for over 50 years. Another Middle East won't be found in the Gulf of Mexico, but might be in the Russian Arctic.