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S&P puts Russia in the firing line

Published time: October 17, 2012 13:10
Edited time: October 17, 2012 17:10
A sign for Standard & Poor's rating agency stands in front of the company headquarters in New York, September 18, 2012. (AFP Photo/Emmanuel Dunand)

Russia may soon fall victim to the sharp eye of S&P. The rating agency says should the oil price fall to $60/bbl it will push the country into junk status.

Better business climate and judiciary, coupled with a decisive fight against corruption and less government in its economy will help to heat up growth and provide a better investment grade for Russia, according to S&P.

The country’s Government also should watch its expenses and not spend massive amounts in the effort to win over public opinion, said

Kai Stukenbrock, S&P’s Head of Sovereign Ratings for the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Middle East.

Fighting corruption“could help the growth potential and also the resilience of the economy,” Bloomberg quotes Stukenbrock as saying. “The question is whether the government will be able to change their mode of operation and curtail expenditure growth.”

Currently Russia is rated BBB, which is the second lowest investment grade. This puts the country on the same level with Bulgaria and Lithuania.

As the budget relies more than 50% on oil revenues makes it extremely vulnerable to any external shocks. A $10 drop in average oil prices can widen Russia’s budget gap by 1.4% of GDP, the rating agency calculated.

While little has changed in terms of Russia’s energy efficiency, a course towards a more market driven rouble taken by Russia’s Central Bank, as well as the country’s entrance into the World Trade Organization mark important steps in the right direction.

Spain is the latest S&P focus of attention. Last week the rating agency downgraded the country to the lowest investment grade status, BBB-, referring to high unemployment and social unrest. This was followed by an attack on the country’s banks, with 15 Spanish lenders seeing their credit ratings cut on Tuesday.

Comments (7)

Hindu Brahmin Bodhcong Pala (unregistered) 18.10.2012 00:51

The West north, including Russia, tends to reside in needed "Power Sleep" amidst the the defective crookery which is the masses hyper-agitations against the true form few who are really individuated. Many hyper-imitators/hype r-agitators are High Educated, but only mimicry. Thus Russia & others do not always realize; recognize explicitly, what is the real explicit factual basis. First, all Ratings are Faked; and actual Ratings Scam made by convention/agreement : legalized sadism-parasitism. For example Italy must pay an "Extent Tax" mandated by the Ratings Agencies: so that others can take part of Italys' high quality maniac technical individuated profit results. It's the same against Russia. Presently the financial-economic reporting exposes that actually the Federal Reserve is structuring a de facto "pro-inflationary" movement in the extreme present: to "cause principals/owners to borrow from Lenders"; as if that will save the economic implosion. Russia being a "Tangible" producer; a powerhouse of tangible economic results; is now targeted by multifold defective interests whose motive is to "take". In fact a major component of the causes of the '08 global financial obliteration was the creeping fact during 30 years to make that the Lender Owns All, but the Tangible Producer Owns nothing. The Principal is all obliterated, permanently void; and therefore the FED & all other international party's are saying that "Interest" on Lending is all and is the only definition of "Growth". In that complex, though, it won't prove real results: because the permanent, forever condition that Euro is freaking about is that "each increase-power at Supply will instantly void-fragment Supply". What actual "Resources" does Greece have? Zero. Therefore it is parasitically mandated that Russia must pay extra. Wake up from Power Sleep, to Explicit knowledge fact.

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Hans Aplast (unregistered) 17.10.2012 21:57

Russia has the potential to become the most stable economy of the world. They just need to get rid of the international finance mafia. It's time for an independent rating agency.

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O (unregistered) 17.10.2012 20:01

AmericanInRomania (unregistered) wrote in #2
Russia has SOOO much potential economically, but seems unable to get away from its dependance on oil sales.  If Russia fixed and got its legal and accounting practices to international standards and got a grip on the endless corruption, it could be an economic giant.  Cheap energy, plenty of cheap semi-skilled labor and trade access.  Oil has, since the Soviets, perverted Russia and allowed a government to act independently from the people because oil pays the bills.  It is time for Russia to take the blessings of natural resources and make a real and diverse globalized economy.  Russia has what it takes, but needs the political will to make thechanges needed to make it happen and, I hope they do. ------------- -
I wonder why nobody wants to lecture Saudi Arabia, where according to CIA Factbook "petroleum sector accounts for roughly 80% of budget revenues" or Qatar with their 70%? In Russia it's below 50%.

Why don't I see a lot of articles and comments discussing the dependence of Qatar and Saudi on oil, blaming them for their undiversified economy, promising the apocalypse if they won't diversify it in the next few days, etc?

In US 80% of GDP are "services" (that is, John mowed Jim's lawn and Jim paid him $1, then Jim mowed John's lawn and John paid him $1, so they produced nothing and gained nothing but their GDP is $2) - does it mean they need to diversify it immediately to produce something real besides the "services"? Isn't it bad to have dependence on "services"?

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