Published: 28 July, 2009, 21:21
Edited: 28 July, 2009, 21:21
Before US Vice President Joe Biden visited Ukraine and Georgia I remember exchanging a number of emails with Moscow-based Western journalists. I was repeatedly asked what I expected from the summit. I replied, “I am waiting for a gaffe of some sort.” I had no illusions that members of the Ukrainian and Georgian political elites would remind Biden of the good old days with Bush when they appeared to mean something to Washington. I can imagine Viktor Yushchenko and Mikhail Saakashvili saying only if it weren’t for Barack Obama’s damn re-set button with the Russians, now that’s really annoying. Of course this was all expected. Biden’s mission was simple: “I am the second best American leader you can get, but you are not second best or forgotten.” Well, we all got it wrong, the zinger gaffe was made later at home.
Obama’s mantra is “yes we can.” Ours for Biden should be “please don’t.” The venue, not surprisingly, was the Wall Street Journal and Joe was at his rawest best:
"The reality is the Russians are where they are. They have a shrinking population base, they have a withering economy, they have a banking sector and structure that is not likely to be able to withstand the next 15 years, they're in a situation where the world is changing before them and they're clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable."
Biden is supposed to be Obama’s “safe hands” in the realm of foreign policy, instead he reads like butterfingers flipping through the past in search of the Cold War. I want to stress this – Biden is not revisiting the Bush Jr. era, but rather looking more to the Reagan years for insight.
Indeed, Russia’s demographics aren’t sterling, but nor are they as dire as Joe would have it. The demographic situation isn’t as bad as most believe. The real problem for Russia is in the area is immigration. This problem is not much different from the same challenges faced by most western countries. Joe should visit Moscow at the very least – it is impossible not to see pregnant women walking the streets, traveling by metro, or visiting a workplace.
The economy is “withering.” Now that’s a strange one. Where in the world is the economy not withering? The global financial crisis started in the US because it did not abide by the economic and financial wisdom (sic!) the US exported for decades. If the US doesn’t experience another serious turndown, Russia will slowly recover. Like the US, the Russian government has intervened to shore up sectors of the economy and industries at greatest risk while protecting as many jobs as possible. Russia isn’t out of the woods. Can the US say differently?
Is Russia’s banking sector so bad off? The short answer is no. The Russian banking sector is challenged, to be sure. However, the banking sector and the real economy are not as tightly linked as is the case in more developed industrialized countries. This has proven to be a net plus for Russia. The toxic contagion released by the American banking system on to most of the world has not happened in Russia. The most serious risks faced by the banking system have passed and are being managed. It is corporate defaults that worry the powers-that-be in Moscow most – and those worries remain serious.
Now for a short preamble to my punch line: What the hell does Biden mean by “They're in a situation where the world is changing before them and they're clinging to something in the past that is not sustainable." This is not a gaffe; these are words of a man living in the past and unable to grapple with the new realities of the present.
What is sustainable these days? The US is bankrupt and worries that its most important creditor, China, will eventually wise-up and pull the plug on the imaginary currency called the US dollar. Biden goes to Ukraine and Georgia in the unofficial capacity as defender against alleged renewed Russian imperialism. The fact is Washington – people like Biden – is engaging in a counter-offensive to maintain American influence in someone else’s security backyard. The Bush people backed the losers known as Yushchenko and Saakashvili and Biden appears to have not learned the definition of the word stupidity. The definition of stupidity is the inability to learn. Meddling in someone else's backyard does create some very serious security risks.
I suppose that I should be pleased that Hillary Clinton attempted to correct Joe’s expected careless walks in the park when mouthing-off. The Obama Administration is still young and getting its bearings. But when it comes to Russia, things don’t look good. Who are we to listen to and believe? Obama, Biden, or Clinton?
Lastly, just before Obama left Washington to visit Moscow he made a point to differentiate between the governance styles of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. He said Putin had a foot in the past and clearly favored Medvedev as a partner, and not Putin. It was bad advice and it all backfired. This is where Joe again re-enters the spotlight.
What are the Russians and the world to think? Is there a coherent message coming out of Washington these days? Is the Obama-Biden tandem having trouble? Are they out of focus? Much is made of Russia’s power tandem. Indeed, Medvedev and Putin differ when it comes to style, but not substance. When it comes to America’s tandem, it remains difficult to discern the difference between style and substance. Obama’s “yes we can” approach already needs some perestroika and glasnost.