Published: 3 July, 2009, 11:45
Edited: 3 July, 2009, 11:45
Speaking with the Associated Press before his departure for Russia; US President Barack Obama gave every impression that he intends to play Russia President Dmitry Medvedev off against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This is naive and very dangerous. Moreover, such an approach will not result in “resetting” Russia-US relations.
Either Obama believes he has already mastered Russian politics (assuming that is even possible among us who are hardcore Russia-watchers) or he is being given some very bad advice.
Irrespective of which, the US president never should have said the following in public:
“…Prime Minister Putin still has a lot of sway in Russia, and I think that it's important that even as we move forward with President Medvedev, that Putin understands that the old Cold War approaches to U.S.-Russian relations is outdated, that it's time to move forward in a different direction. I think Medvedev understands that. I think Putin has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the new. And to the extent that we can provide him and the Russian people a clear sense that the U.S. is not seeking an antagonistic relationship, but wants cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation, fighting terrorism, energy issues - that we'll end up having a stronger partner overall in this process.”
In Russia today, it is simply impossible to play Medvedev off against Putin. Both represent the same policy approaches, including foreign policies, but in different ways. As I have stated in the past, both are modernizers, with Medvedev taking more of a liberal trajectory and Putin more of a statist. At this point in time, both approaches need the other be to effective. Obama can in no way divide the two.
I still find it odd the western mainstream continues to see what they want to see in Medvedev and Putin. Medvedev is liked because he isn’t Putin. This has nothing to do with politics and policy – just simply misplaced perceptions that are only self-serving. (It needs to be remembered that a great deal of Medvedev’s popularity at home comes from the trust Putin has in him).
Additionally, no one in Russia’s political elite would ever think about “choosing” one member of the tandem over the other when it comes to foreign policy, and to please the leader of another country.
As far as where the tandem has its feet, I can only say they are on solid ground remembering the past and moving forward.
I certainly hope the upcoming summit will proceed better than Obama’s initial remarks would indicate. He needs better advice than he’s getting at the moment.