Russia-US: It’s the world order, stupid!
Published: 28 September, 2009, 21:32
This past week the presidents of Russia and the United States made earnest attempts to bolster a bilateral relationship that has been in tatters for at least the past eight years. The administration of Barack Obama scrapped Bush-era anti-missile plans in Eastern Europe and Dmitry Medvedev made it clear that Russia remains flexible when dealing with Iran's controversial nuclear program. Is there a quid pro quo in play? It is difficult to say at this point. However, there can be no doubt Russia and the US intend to focus on the few important issues that bring them together. This is a wise approach - for too long both countries have dwelt on what separates them.
Obama's move to walk away from anti-missile plans in Poland and the Czech Republic was decided at the very start of the new American administration. Obama had no intention of going through with defense plans that were too costly and did not work. On top of this, it was abundantly clear that a new start with Russia - now famously called "hitting the reset button" - would be impossible if the plans of George W. Bush came to fruition. Of course we were told that new intelligence findings determined that strategic threats to Europe and the US had changed and that the original missile shield plan was not longer necessary. Indeed, this may or may not be true, but it is obvious all of this has to do with Iran.
Washington has been obsessed with Iran for 30 years. For much of this time the Islamic republic has been subject to international sanctions led by the US. The fact that Tehran has again restarted its nuclear programme and is not as cooperative with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as many demand has much of the Western world - and needless to say, Israel - up in arms (quite literally in some cases).
Russia does not deem Iran as a security threat and has long promoted a policy of dialogue and pushed for incentives to change Tehran's behavior. This is Russia's policy of flexibility and the Obama administration appears to have learned from this approach.
Russia and the US have not made a secret bilateral deal regarding Iran
- at least not yet. However, a new gambit is in play and well worth the attempt. Since the end of the Cold War the US has callously undermined the Non-Proliferation Treaty and all but ignored the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. This has critically damaged global security. Now the US wants Russia's cooperation to set these wrongs right. The first step is a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) agreement between the two countries, then work together to tackle nuclear proliferation on a global scale. This is where Iran comes into the picture.
Iran claims it is not in pursuit of a nuclear weapon. But at the same time, it points to the fact that Israel is an undeclared nuclear state in the Greater Middle East and given a free pass by Washington when it comes to international non-proliferation conventions. For the majority of the Arab and Muslim world this is a clear example of Western double-standards and duplicity. Obama hopes to change this dynamic and Russia has every reason to support this endeavour.
The significance of Medvedev's meeting with Obama in New York should be understood in the following way: resetting Russia-US relations will take time and a lot of patience. New US plans for missile defense in Europe, the future of NATO, Russia's prerogatives in the post-Soviet space, and energy politics are among the many issues the two countries must comes to terms with. This is why Moscow and Washington have the best chance to mend relations by collaborating on issues that impact global security.
Many see a major showdown on the cards regarding Iran. It is not that simple. Iran is not really the problem. What must be addressed is the fragility of the international order. Since the end of the Cold War the US believed it had licence to do whatever it wanted to on the world stage. This wreaked havoc for all for almost two decades. Obama understands this and so does Russia. Moscow and Washington may never truly be friends and allies, but both can find common cause and a meaningful "reset" of relations by mending the international order.
Peter Lavelle is a political commentator for Russia Today television and presenter of the Sunday panel programme "CrossTalk."
