Peter I agree with most of your assessment. My only reservation is the actual recognition of these two tiny states. I think if we are being honest South Ossetia will never be able to stand alone as an independent nation it has no viable economy and will need Russian subsidies probably forever to survive. It is obvious that if not returned to Georgia which is now unthinkable under the circumstances, long term South Ossetia will have to be fully absorbed into the Russian federation. This will course an international storm of protest and do little to enhance Russia’s reputation abroad with a hostile western media pushing a “we told you so” line. I know the original French/Russian 6 point plan called for discussion on the status of the two republics post conflict, which Georgia dismissed immediately stating that sovereignty was non negotiable, within days Russia announced recognition. My own opinion is that maybe more time should have been given and perhaps a more international consensus could have been reached with more involvement from the UN and EU. Because this situation had been brought about by Georgia’s unwarranted aggression Russia who had the moral high ground may have found more sympathy for its position once the dust had settled and the true facts began to emerge. Russia had nothing to loose by waiting and talking more, as it was always within Russia's power to recognize these two republics at any time of its choosing.

Peter, The analysis is sound, however in my mind not necessary. A Doctor when acting to save a life, never does a what if I didn't act post analysis. They act because of a duty, your definition is a narrow R2P, my definition is wider; that Russia owes a R2P to anyone within its capability to help. Indeed that is what the world is expecting of Russia. We acted in South Ossetia because our soldiers were attacked, because civilians were attacked, because ethnic cleansing was being attempted. We acted out of duty to humanity, we acted out of principle. It cost us blood, sweat and tears. We didn't further our narrow self interest, and that is why the western calculation didn't work, that was their mistake, they analysed Russia as like themselves, full of interest and lacking in principles. But oh boy! surprise, surprise, Russia is principled and not persuing narrow definitions of national interest. Russia will pay for its principles and pay gladly, for without them we are nothing, we just become a US or EU, a politicised cesspit. R John, I do not agree that South Ossetia is not a viable state. Econmies are built and scaleable, they don't grow on trees. Look around in Europe at some small thriving states, look also to the rest of the world. South Ossetia just needs to be protected and allow the will of the people to be paramount there. Isn't this what democracy is all about! Not slaughtering people.

Peter Lavelle has a sound and reasoned assessment. But, do disagree with some of the language. Soldiers killing each other is a war. Soldiers using their weapons to kill civilians, is a genocide. Your wife, asking you for money for a third pair of shoes is a "conflict".

I have a sixth point to add, Mr. Lavelle. If Russia had not responded to Georgia, USA could have taken that as a sign that Russia would not respond if we attacked Iran. The day Georgia attacked South Ossetia, we had a fleet in the Atlantic that had just ended some war games with Britain and France. The fleet headed toward the Persian Gulf, but after some "communication" from Russia, there seems to have been no more news about additional ships in the Gulf.

South Ossetia had 22 working factories before the 2008 conflict now there are only 7 the largest employs 130 people to bring the others back on stream will take a major financial investment. A third of the countries income comes from the tariffs levelled on goods transited through the Roki tunnel. Protection from Russia is not enough even the president of south Ossetia has stated that they are dependent on Russian aid. Now if the people of south Ossetia are happy to become no more than “hunter gatherers” of course they can exist, but I have a feeling they may well have slightly higher aspirations for themselves and their families. And because they can only generate a GDP of $15 million ($250 per capita) independently, then their president (not me) is correct Russia has no other choice but to subsidise them.

Count Cash, ''..Russia owes a R2P to anyone within its capability to help... Russia is principled and not persuing narrow definitions of national interest. Russia will pay for its principles and pay gladly, for without them we are nothing.. '' Interestingly enough this is True (has been thus far at least), as history itself provides the evidence. For this i say ''Thank You!'' It's sincere! Best Regards, Aleks

R John, You misunderstand, you expressed a doubt that South ossetia was viable in the future. I disagree, yes Russia will have to invest, will have to subsidise, that is the whole point. Russia will pay for its principles. We didn not do it for a balance sheet exercise. However the factories can come back. The economy can prosper and South Ossetia can have a bright future. All enabled by the blood of Russia.

If Russia hadn't intervene, the western media will still portray Russia as evil regardless it acted or not. That's the whole point of having "pseudo journalists" stationed on whatever nation they wish to be a sacrificial lamb for their personal interest. After all, coming from a country with a "scripted history", I can pretty much say that people need to have a reality check. Disinformation is becoming such a trend that millions are dragged into it unknowing of the planned outcomes. I guess it's just hard living in a world filled with ad populum.

you basically don't have to look whether the country will be able to pay back if you truly want to help. Aiding a nation towards its goal be free from oppression is the core of a highly moral democratic country. I mean, what kind of country would want its own citizens killed without justifiable reasons? Under those jurisdictions, S. ossetia is better off as an autonomous state. Since it is still a fragile and young nation, it's definitely going to need all of the unconditional care and protection from Mother Russia -saintkatanalegacy

The atrocity commited against S. Ossetia is saako's fault. I doubt that Georgians wanted that attack to happen. Georgia should be a natural ally of Russia, but has been steered onto the wrong road by saako and his western backers. It is now used to confront Russia so that the EU and the US can get their pipelines and bases. But it will be the commong PEOPLE who will end up suffering on both sides. As if the west cares... The next time saako decides to deal with anyone the way he dealt with S. Ossetia, he needs to go the way of Ceaucescu.