Kremlinology was a failed quasi-science and so is tandemology. Both
are based on what the vast majority of so-called Russia watchers want
to happen and ignore evidence that contradicts their teleological
assumptions. There is no better example of this than Putin’s real or
imagined political ambitions. Will Putin return to the presidency? I have no
idea and I don’t think that Putin and Medvedev have come to any
consensus on this subject yet. But let’s consider what we do
know and apply some simple political logic, along with some basics
about Russian political culture.

During his trademark Q&A session, Putin was asked if he was
considering retirement from political life. His reply was, “Don't hold
your breath.” These words were instantly interpreted as a clear signal
that Putin is determined to reclaim his former office. This, of course,
makes headlines, sells newspapers and garners hits on the internet,
but what about circumstances on the ground here in Russia?

Putin’s Q&A marathons are now part of legend (and stand as brilliant
examples of domestic soft power). No other leader in the world of
his status comes close to Putin’s ability to engage his public (and
constituency). Does he continue this tradition as prime minister to
stay in the public eye (the commentariat thinks so) or does he do it
now because, as prime minister, he is responsible for the economy? Both
are in play, but I strongly believe the latter is far more important
to Putin. The Russia of today is the house that Putin built and he
wants, and even needs, to keep that house in order and under constant
renewal. Putin may be thinking about his political future, but most
assuredly he wants to protect his legacy, first and foremost.

Let’s return to the words “Don't hold your breath.” What does the
commentariat expect? What would happen in Russia if Putin said “Yes, I
will run again in 2012?” Or the reverse - what would happen if Putin
said “No, I will not run again in 2012?” Simple political logic and
current Russian political and social conditions dictate that Putin and
Medvedev must be circumspect when it comes to the 2012 presidential
election. Not doing so would render one member of the “tandem” an
instant lame duck. This is something Russia’s political elite cannot
allow to happen at the moment. By doing so, the entire Putin-Medvedev
project would undermine the political stability. The prospect of this is
completely unacceptable to the Russian body politic.

Putin and Medvedev have a political understanding, and at the core of
that understanding is Russia’s future – not the political ambitions of
either individual. This is what tandemology refuses to accept and
recognize.

Kremlinology suffocated itself to death and so will tandemology – so
don’t hold your breath.