For the time being, I cannot foresee a situation in which Putin and Medvedev could find themselves opposing each other for the country’s top job. This would unnecessarily divide the political elite and the electorate where very sharp divisions do not exist. The Putin-Medvedev tandem is a political virtue and a necessary pragmatic reality if the country is to continue its reformist agenda.

It has been mentioned to me that Medvedev’s gazeta.ru article, “Russia, Forward,” was the president’s indirect statement announcing his intentions to run for re-election. This is an interesting point. However, what really struck me as most important in the article is the stress on the need to continue Russia’s modernization – started under Putin and now continued by Medvedev. I agree with Medvedev that recovery from the worst experiences of the 1990s can be rightfully applauded, but it is not nearly enough if Russia is to remain a great and prosperous country in an ever-competitive and dangerous world.

Medvedev appealed to society, but the message was to the bureaucracy – the state that Putin so empowered. The state needed to be restructured and empowered as a result of the Yeltsin years. Now the task is to ensure that the state serves the interests of society. And frankly, this will be very hard to accomplish. Nonetheless, it is absolutely necessary.

It is not so much that Medvedev is somehow challenging Putin; it is more complex than that. The way forward is to square the circle, appreciating the abilities and sensibilities of the two men to maintain Putin’s drive to create a prosperous and powerful Russia and Medvedev’s vision of a more modern, law abiding, and equitable society. Said differently – Putin must tame the state he created (and believe me he knows this) and Medvedev will continue to harp on the issue that the state exists to serve and protect the interests of society.

Medvedev and Putin are different – very different in many ways. However, it is their commonalties that brought them together and will keep them together. Essentially, they both want the same for Russia. This is why I cannot see under any circumstances – at least for now – that they could become political opponents.

Another point I found interesting is Putin’s mentioning the United Russia political party and Russia’s future. It is my supreme hope that Russia’s largest party will modernize itself, and I am convinced that Putin knows this and intends to do so. It is my opinion that the global financial crisis frustrated many of Putin’s post-presidential plans. And one of them was reforming United Russia. Alas, sitting in the chair of the prime minister in the service of Medvedev, Putin has had to contend with the economy.

During Putin’s years as president, and at the time when Medvedev ran for the presidency, United Russia could easily claim to be the party of success. But today this is a claim that is questionable. This pleases me very much – the greatest problem facing Russian politics today is complacency. During the next electoral cycle United Russia - and Fair Russia, for that matter - will have to explain themselves. This works for both Medvedev and Putin in terms of modernizing the country. For both they can say that politics does matter in Russia – the self-interests of the bureaucrats can be questioned. This is an opportunity that should not be missed.

In political terms, forecasting what could happen in 2012 is a bit silly at this point. So much can still happen. However, many of Russia’s hard political, economic, and social realities will not have changed much by then. The Medvedev-Putin tandem is here to stay for a while. Russia needs Putin’s trusted hard hand and Medvedev’s vision.

What interests me most is how Putin attempts to reign in the state he was involved in creating with the hopes Medvedev wants society to have. Again, this will be a demonstration of a political team that wants the same end-game, but approaches the same in different ways.