How long this global economic crisis would last?


Sandy 29 December, 2008, 15:04	Recessions tend to last at least twice as long as initially predicted. Unless there is some major event that has a catalytic effect on the global economy in the meantime, I suggest it will be 2011 before we see any meaningful recover. However a sharp upturn in commodity prices could foreshorten this in Russia. permalink quote 0 Sandy
M E 4 January, 2009, 04:14	The real estate market in USA will be depressed for several more years, based on charts I have seen. While normally that should not affect Russia, the mortgages in USA were used to collateralize gambling debts (otherwise known as derivatives) which were sold all over the world. If the banks refuse to charge off those worthless derivatives, there is a chance we could see a long-term recession or depression similar to what happened in Japan. That one took 10 years and some people say it is still ongoing. So far, the government regulators here in USA are not requiring the banks to charge off the derivatives; if they did, all of the banks would be instantly insolvent. Russia now has a more open economy, that is vulnerable to world crises. Congratulations and sorry about that. 8^( permalink quote 0 M E
Johnny 5 January, 2009, 07:12	Too long permalink quote 0 Johnny
David 6 January, 2009, 22:43	This financial situation would not have taken place, I think, if Bush and Brown had not instigated it in addition to giving 3rd world countries loans and then righting them off. In addition to these loans, ridiculous handouts How about these two named persons righting off every person's debt just like the 3rd world and starting again, just like the 3rd world. No doubt these two leaders are still dishing out blank cheques to 3 rd world countries without any consideration for their own citizens. permalink quote 0 David
Eric 8 January, 2009, 00:07	I expect a double dip recession followed by a period of anemic growth for 3 to 5 years in the West. The American economy is primarily driven by consumers. These consumers are aging, unhealthy, and the wages for the next generations will continue to fall short of what their parents enjoyed. Real consumer growth will come from emerging economies. (BRIC) Hopefully, emerging economies will see the immense value of developing a reliable court system and a vibrant middle class. This would reduce the effect of recessions in the future. permalink quote 0 Eric
Vijay 8 January, 2009, 07:19	My guess is that as it started with the whimper of Sub-prime mortgage default, it may end with a small spark, somewhere in some non-heralded corner of our world!! And the bet is on some Energing nation, with a huge,expanding Domestic market, where these small setbacks will not dampen human hope, ambition and yearning for a better life!! And that certainly isn't some US or Eurozone nation... And it may come sooner than we expect...let's wait and expect though!! permalink quote 0 Vijay
Donald Fraser 9 January, 2009, 22:35	My estimation on the length of this recession is that with the stimulus packages planned now that the manifest signs of recession will diminish by the Fall of 2009, but that the end of the American involvement in the Iraq War in about 2011 will signify the end of the recession, as it has been the heavy expenditures of the Iraq War which caused the recession, or a failure to compensate in monetary money supply policy for the heavy government expenditures for the Iraq War to be exact as the cause of this recession. permalink quote 0 Donald Fraser
Johnny 11 January, 2009, 10:37	Well, what really worries me it that the USA and China are now locked in a bizarre dance of death (or so it seems to me). The frightening reality is that this financial crisis (should really be called the biggest financial scam in history) has not even begun yet. All we have seen is the banks collapse, not the correction! This is the dance of death… If China now stops propping up the US dollar then the dollar will collapse completely. If China continues as they go into recession, they will eventually consume their reserves. If China just stops propping up the dollar, they will immediately lose 70% of their foreign currency reserves. When Obama starts correcting the USA economy, China will start collapsing, as will the world. See what these bankers have done to us! To me it looks like the clock is still ticking on its way to the big melt down, it hasn’t even been fixed yet, and worse still is that the complete silence on the G20 front is telling us, they don’t know what to do! Listen BRICS… make that new global reserve currency before its too late. We going to need it I think, it will become this planets lifeline. You have to save the world you cant just save yourself! Without it… more than 5 years, if we lucky! permalink quote 0 Johnny
joseph 11 January, 2009, 16:26	Western financial services are run by the priveleged few ,which have laws to protect thier banking facislities,and goverments are impotent to take any constructive laws to control ,or sieze thier privelged offshore tax havens.ie the masses are insignificant in these people's agenda,probably one day somebody will come along and rid society of these privelege people of thier priveleges. permalink quote 0 joseph
eurologist 21 January, 2009, 13:51	The dollar will remain the only safe currency because many european countries will leave the Euro zone by the end of this year. Their economies can't handle such a strong currency. They must leave the euro so they can play with inflation ... some of them are Italy , Greece, Spain ... permalink quote 0 eurologist
Enrique 22 January, 2009, 15:50	eurologist, Wrong. According to "The Economist" Spain´s GDP will fall 1.4% in 2009 while Britain´s GDP will fall 2%. So if the British economy, which has all the support of the US,is in worse shape than the Spanish economy...that means if we leave the Eurozone we would be in much worse shape than the UK, and much worse than we are now. Just leaving the Euro and devaluing a currency would mean our National Debt to increase 100% authomatically. And taking into account that now budget deficit is used to stimulate consumer demand, increasing our Public Debt from one day to the other by 100% is not an option. So, don´t worry: it is not profitable fro Spain leaving the Euro. Just look at Iceland, which is outside of the Eurozone and has default...and the UK, according to most economists, is folowing the same path as Iceland. Pound Sterling has fallen more than 30% and the Bank of England interest rate is lower than the ECB...but the UK economy continues to be in worse shape than the Eurozone. So, it is not profitable for us leaving, and less for Italy with its 108% Public Debt. What you can expect, as proposed by the President of BBVA, the second largest bank in Spain, is a common Eurozone financial regulator...and that means further integration. We will see in one year that the Eurozone contribution to the European Union (EU), around Euro 100 billion, will be covered by bonds issued by a common Institutional body. permalink quote 0 Enrique
wen 22 January, 2009, 17:08	2014-15 In fact it is very difficult to predict. Among the best economists, Prof Nouriel Roubini ( New York Univeristy) predicts at best 2010, at worst 2015 or later. The worst for sure could be at the middle of 2009. In any case , it will be a deep change not only on the financial sector but in the production sector plus in USA at least a big change in the way to split the wealth among US citizen. The time of billionaires could be over. The time for changes from Science and Technology evolution will come back. Also a big change in the relation between East and West - a more balance one. China will be more and more important with Japan , South Korea and Taiwan. But the relation between USA and Chine will be closer and closer - same with European Union and South America. permalink quote 0 wen
David 8 February, 2009, 11:29	This financial situation will last for as long the brainwashing and manipulating by western politicians goes on. The media is being used by these politicians to continue to take the situation further into the red. This has been a very well orchestrated crisis created by Bush and Brown and the sooner the media turn the tables the better. permalink quote 0 David
joseph 10 February, 2009, 13:31	The crisis always hits the working men, politicans are totally impotent and weak humans,and make apologies,the only good politican is a dictator. permalink quote 0 joseph
Joe 12 February, 2009, 13:42	The economic crisis will last for at least the next two to three years before confidence can be restored and credit can flow relatively freely around the world. The key problem is that Russia's status in the world has diminished due to unjust and biased west propoganda that wants to portray Russia as barbaric nation which it is NOT. Russia has only been a democracy for 20 years and in fact if you compare it to other nations Russia is a fair, free and democratic society. Another key problem is the economic discontent that is brewing within Russian society. permalink quote 0 Joe
Edward 13 February, 2009, 10:14	I have been an avid viewer and follower of RT since I first saw it on TV around two years ago. I have contributed many comments in your "Get it off your chest" forum during that time under the pseudonym of "Democracy Sceptic". Sometimes I have expressed views that were not always sympathetic to the expected current Kremlin position, but were delighted to find that you published it anyway. RT is documenting the global financial crisis and its impact on the world’s major economies very well. Like the western press, RT is talking about the brand name companies that are in decline. The locations and numbers of jobs that are being lost are made readily available. What has been absent by the RT's broadcasts to date is the same kind of information concerning Russian industry/ commerce and of any impact upon the Russian employment scene. For the first time last weekend’s “In Context” programme did make a reference to Moscow street demonstrations arising from the global turndown. In an interview a Moscow News journalist stated that “A good number of people in Russia remain unaffected”. What is the impact upon the downturn on the Russian economy? We can all see the Rouble going down on the international exchanges. permalink quote 0 Edward
Don 17 February, 2009, 18:21	The economy in America won't turn over till all the corruption In Congress and state and local government ceases. I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel unless it's a freight train. permalink quote 0 Don
Ant 22 June, 2009, 06:58	Well, I think we will start seeing the shoots of full recovery early next year. Around May time. Well, that's the time Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, will want to play up his role in seeing the economy recover. In order to be re-elected in the 2010 General Election. I must admit, I went to New York last weekend for the 14th June, and the city was bustling with shoppers and people. You won't think there was a recession. I get the impression the media is being manipulated in order to suit the politicians agenda in sustaining silly class structures. Well, if they say that the recession is over already speculators will stand to lose a lot of money, but also the Queen can sit on her throne a bit longer. If the Queen is such a marvel at futures, then why can't she go on the private market and make her own money. God Bless Christian Love from Anton permalink quote 0 Ant
MEJanssen 22 June, 2009, 14:36	I think the crisis will last until 2011 or maybe 2012. Here in the US, the housing still has another big "hill" of foreclosures to digest. According the the Credit Suisse chart on mortgage repricings, we are starting another spike in repricing, and now so many people have been laid off that those mortgages will see huge defaults. This is no longer the poor credit risks, or "subprime". These are now the borrowers who were able to qualify for mortgages but are seeing hard times or who have huge mortgages that must be paid down by a third or more before they can be refinanced. Also, here in California, the state is about to run out of cash because the bond market has generally been frozen for all but those states with the best credit rating, and we are close to getting rated as "junk". We expect to run out of money some time in July, and when that happens, we will default. I have family working for the state government, and they expect to be paid minimum wage rates, if they are still working. The state labor laws make it tough to lay government workers off, but we still have the ability to lower their wages to about 1/8th of what they are getting paid now. When the state employees quit getting paid, there are so many of them that they alone could affect the derivative markets with their mortgage defaults. Then there is the ripple effect of all that state government under-employment. There will be a lot of unhappy, unemployed people here, living in tent cities while their bank-owned houses are sitting empty in abandoned neighborhoods. They will have plenty of time to go downtown and protest on the capitol building steps. It may be looking like Latvia around here this summer. permalink quote 0 MEJanssen
dissturbbed 26 June, 2009, 12:29	Its going to last forever, it might rebound but it will never be as good as it was in the past when the dow was around 14k. The reason for this is energy stocks and prices, the world is running out of that black gold fast and there isnt going to be much for future generations. Crude oil is what runs any industrialized economy and when the price of energy goes up the economy suffers. Russia is one of the fastest growing countries on the planet, once russia becomes a world power she will consume more of her own crude leaving the rest of the world starving for the energy unless Russia is able to produce more than she consumes in the future. permalink quote 0 dissturbbed

Sandy 29 December, 2008, 15:04

Recessions tend to last at least twice as long as initially predicted. Unless there is some major event that has a catalytic effect on the global economy in the meantime, I suggest it will be 2011 before we see any meaningful recover. However a sharp upturn in commodity prices could foreshorten this in Russia.

permalink quote Sandy

M E 4 January, 2009, 04:14

The real estate market in USA will be depressed for several more years, based on charts I have seen. While normally that should not affect Russia, the mortgages in USA were used to collateralize gambling debts (otherwise known as derivatives) which were sold all over the world. If the banks refuse to charge off those worthless derivatives, there is a chance we could see a long-term recession or depression similar to what happened in Japan. That one took 10 years and some people say it is still ongoing. So far, the government regulators here in USA are not requiring the banks to charge off the derivatives; if they did, all of the banks would be instantly insolvent. Russia now has a more open economy, that is vulnerable to world crises. Congratulations and sorry about that. 8^(

permalink quote M E

Johnny 5 January, 2009, 07:12

Too long

permalink quote Johnny

David 6 January, 2009, 22:43

This financial situation would not have taken place, I think, if Bush and Brown had not instigated it in addition to giving 3rd world countries loans and then righting them off. In addition to these loans, ridiculous handouts How about these two named persons righting off every person's debt just like the 3rd world and starting again, just like the 3rd world. No doubt these two leaders are still dishing out blank cheques to 3 rd world countries without any consideration for their own citizens.

permalink quote David

Eric 8 January, 2009, 00:07

I expect a double dip recession followed by a period of anemic growth for 3 to 5 years in the West. The American economy is primarily driven by consumers. These consumers are aging, unhealthy, and the wages for the next generations will continue to fall short of what their parents enjoyed. Real consumer growth will come from emerging economies. (BRIC) Hopefully, emerging economies will see the immense value of developing a reliable court system and a vibrant middle class. This would reduce the effect of recessions in the future.

permalink quote Eric

Vijay 8 January, 2009, 07:19

My guess is that as it started with the whimper of Sub-prime mortgage default, it may end with a small spark, somewhere in some non-heralded corner of our world!! And the bet is on some Energing nation, with a huge,expanding Domestic market, where these small setbacks will not dampen human hope, ambition and yearning for a better life!! And that certainly isn't some US or Eurozone nation... And it may come sooner than we expect...let's wait and expect though!!

permalink quote Vijay

Donald Fraser 9 January, 2009, 22:35

My estimation on the length of this recession is that with the stimulus packages planned now that the manifest signs of recession will diminish by the Fall of 2009, but that the end of the American involvement in the Iraq War in about 2011 will signify the end of the recession, as it has been the heavy expenditures of the Iraq War which caused the recession, or a failure to compensate in monetary money supply policy for the heavy government expenditures for the Iraq War to be exact as the cause of this recession.

permalink quote Donald Fraser

Johnny 11 January, 2009, 10:37

Well, what really worries me it that the USA and China are now locked in a bizarre dance of death (or so it seems to me). The frightening reality is that this financial crisis (should really be called the biggest financial scam in history) has not even begun yet. All we have seen is the banks collapse, not the correction! This is the dance of death… If China now stops propping up the US dollar then the dollar will collapse completely. If China continues as they go into recession, they will eventually consume their reserves. If China just stops propping up the dollar, they will immediately lose 70% of their foreign currency reserves. When Obama starts correcting the USA economy, China will start collapsing, as will the world. See what these bankers have done to us! To me it looks like the clock is still ticking on its way to the big melt down, it hasn’t even been fixed yet, and worse still is that the complete silence on the G20 front is telling us, they don’t know what to do! Listen BRICS… make that new global reserve currency before its too late. We going to need it I think, it will become this planets lifeline. You have to save the world you cant just save yourself! Without it… more than 5 years, if we lucky!

permalink quote Johnny

joseph 11 January, 2009, 16:26

Western financial services are run by the priveleged few ,which have laws to protect thier banking facislities,and goverments are impotent to take any constructive laws to control ,or sieze thier privelged offshore tax havens.ie the masses are insignificant in these people's agenda,probably one day somebody will come along and rid society of these privelege people of thier priveleges.

permalink quote joseph

eurologist 21 January, 2009, 13:51

The dollar will remain the only safe currency because many european countries will leave the Euro zone by the end of this year. Their economies can't handle such a strong currency. They must leave the euro so they can play with inflation ... some of them are Italy , Greece, Spain ...

permalink quote eurologist

Enrique 22 January, 2009, 15:50

eurologist, Wrong. According to "The Economist" Spain´s GDP will fall 1.4% in 2009 while Britain´s GDP will fall 2%. So if the British economy, which has all the support of the US,is in worse shape than the Spanish economy...that means if we leave the Eurozone we would be in much worse shape than the UK, and much worse than we are now. Just leaving the Euro and devaluing a currency would mean our National Debt to increase 100% authomatically. And taking into account that now budget deficit is used to stimulate consumer demand, increasing our Public Debt from one day to the other by 100% is not an option. So, don´t worry: it is not profitable fro Spain leaving the Euro. Just look at Iceland, which is outside of the Eurozone and has default...and the UK, according to most economists, is folowing the same path as Iceland. Pound Sterling has fallen more than 30% and the Bank of England interest rate is lower than the ECB...but the UK economy continues to be in worse shape than the Eurozone. So, it is not profitable for us leaving, and less for Italy with its 108% Public Debt. What you can expect, as proposed by the President of BBVA, the second largest bank in Spain, is a common Eurozone financial regulator...and that means further integration. We will see in one year that the Eurozone contribution to the European Union (EU), around Euro 100 billion, will be covered by bonds issued by a common Institutional body.

permalink quote Enrique

wen 22 January, 2009, 17:08

2014-15 In fact it is very difficult to predict. Among the best economists, Prof Nouriel Roubini ( New York Univeristy) predicts at best 2010, at worst 2015 or later. The worst for sure could be at the middle of 2009. In any case , it will be a deep change not only on the financial sector but in the production sector plus in USA at least a big change in the way to split the wealth among US citizen. The time of billionaires could be over. The time for changes from Science and Technology evolution will come back. Also a big change in the relation between East and West - a more balance one. China will be more and more important with Japan , South Korea and Taiwan. But the relation between USA and Chine will be closer and closer - same with European Union and South America.

permalink quote wen

David 8 February, 2009, 11:29

This financial situation will last for as long the brainwashing and manipulating by western politicians goes on. The media is being used by these politicians to continue to take the situation further into the red. This has been a very well orchestrated crisis created by Bush and Brown and the sooner the media turn the tables the better.

permalink quote David

joseph 10 February, 2009, 13:31

The crisis always hits the working men, politicans are totally impotent and weak humans,and make apologies,the only good politican is a dictator.

permalink quote joseph

Joe 12 February, 2009, 13:42

The economic crisis will last for at least the next two to three years before confidence can be restored and credit can flow relatively freely around the world. The key problem is that Russia's status in the world has diminished due to unjust and biased west propoganda that wants to portray Russia as barbaric nation which it is NOT. Russia has only been a democracy for 20 years and in fact if you compare it to other nations Russia is a fair, free and democratic society. Another key problem is the economic discontent that is brewing within Russian society.

permalink quote Joe

Edward 13 February, 2009, 10:14

I have been an avid viewer and follower of RT since I first saw it on TV around two years ago. I have contributed many comments in your "Get it off your chest" forum during that time under the pseudonym of "Democracy Sceptic". Sometimes I have expressed views that were not always sympathetic to the expected current Kremlin position, but were delighted to find that you published it anyway. RT is documenting the global financial crisis and its impact on the world’s major economies very well. Like the western press, RT is talking about the brand name companies that are in decline. The locations and numbers of jobs that are being lost are made readily available. What has been absent by the RT's broadcasts to date is the same kind of information concerning Russian industry/ commerce and of any impact upon the Russian employment scene. For the first time last weekend’s “In Context” programme did make a reference to Moscow street demonstrations arising from the global turndown. In an interview a Moscow News journalist stated that “A good number of people in Russia remain unaffected”. What is the impact upon the downturn on the Russian economy? We can all see the Rouble going down on the international exchanges.

permalink quote Edward

Don 17 February, 2009, 18:21

The economy in America won't turn over till all the corruption In Congress and state and local government ceases. I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel unless it's a freight train.

permalink quote Don

Ant 22 June, 2009, 06:58

Well, I think we will start seeing the shoots of full recovery early next year. Around May time. Well, that's the time Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, will want to play up his role in seeing the economy recover. In order to be re-elected in the 2010 General Election. I must admit, I went to New York last weekend for the 14th June, and the city was bustling with shoppers and people. You won't think there was a recession. I get the impression the media is being manipulated in order to suit the politicians agenda in sustaining silly class structures. Well, if they say that the recession is over already speculators will stand to lose a lot of money, but also the Queen can sit on her throne a bit longer. If the Queen is such a marvel at futures, then why can't she go on the private market and make her own money. God Bless Christian Love from Anton

permalink quote Ant

MEJanssen 22 June, 2009, 14:36

I think the crisis will last until 2011 or maybe 2012. Here in the US, the housing still has another big "hill" of foreclosures to digest. According the the Credit Suisse chart on mortgage repricings, we are starting another spike in repricing, and now so many people have been laid off that those mortgages will see huge defaults. This is no longer the poor credit risks, or "subprime". These are now the borrowers who were able to qualify for mortgages but are seeing hard times or who have huge mortgages that must be paid down by a third or more before they can be refinanced. Also, here in California, the state is about to run out of cash because the bond market has generally been frozen for all but those states with the best credit rating, and we are close to getting rated as "junk". We expect to run out of money some time in July, and when that happens, we will default. I have family working for the state government, and they expect to be paid minimum wage rates, if they are still working. The state labor laws make it tough to lay government workers off, but we still have the ability to lower their wages to about 1/8th of what they are getting paid now. When the state employees quit getting paid, there are so many of them that they alone could affect the derivative markets with their mortgage defaults. Then there is the ripple effect of all that state government under-employment. There will be a lot of unhappy, unemployed people here, living in tent cities while their bank-owned houses are sitting empty in abandoned neighborhoods. They will have plenty of time to go downtown and protest on the capitol building steps. It may be looking like Latvia around here this summer.

permalink quote MEJanssen

dissturbbed 26 June, 2009, 12:29

Its going to last forever, it might rebound but it will never be as good as it was in the past when the dow was around 14k. The reason for this is energy stocks and prices, the world is running out of that black gold fast and there isnt going to be much for future generations. Crude oil is what runs any industrialized economy and when the price of energy goes up the economy suffers. Russia is one of the fastest growing countries on the planet, once russia becomes a world power she will consume more of her own crude leaving the rest of the world starving for the energy unless Russia is able to produce more than she consumes in the future.

permalink quote dissturbbed

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