What sectors of corporate Russia offer significant upside now for the potential investors - over the short and long terms?


Enrique 20 November, 2008, 15:18	Lukoil has offered to buy a 30% stake in the Spanish company Repsol. A merger of both companies would be a good business for both according to Roberto Centeno, former adviser of the Spanish energy firms Enagas and Campsa (article "Lukoil o Gazprom: una oportunidad histórica"/"Lukoil or Gazprom: a historical opportunity" in the main Spanish economic newspaper "Expansión" last 14 Nov. 2008) Both companies are complementary (Repsol in Spain and Latin America/Lukoil in Russia and Eastern Europe) Last year Repsol revenues were $61 billion and Lukoil´s $54 billion (2007) so together they have revenues of $115 billion, similar to ENI´s $127 billion and just over half of Total´s $217 billion, not to talk about Exxon, Shell or BP. So a Repsol-Lukoil merger would be just the beginning of a merging process that could include Rosneft and ENI to build a company with revenues of over $250 billion, more than Total and reaching BP. Repsol has oil reserves in Argentina (YPF) and Brazil, ENI has reserves in Libya, Lukoil and Rosneft have reserves in Kanthy-Mansi (Russian Federation) We should celebrate a Lukoil-Repsol merger just as the beginning of a new giant that could welcome Rosneft and ENI.even if that means collaboration between the Governments of Spain, Russia, Italy and Argentina. If they are able to build an integrated company of $250 billion which can compete to Total, Exxon, Shell, BP and Conoco.GREAT!!! permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 23 November, 2008, 23:52	For Spain the new low cost Air companies have fostered tourism even in downturn times. It would be great for Sochi and Vladivostok to be the hub of low cost Air companies like EasyJet, Air Berlin, RyanAir etc. permalink quote 0 Enrique
Vijay Singh 24 November, 2008, 12:22	Corporate Russia can offer a great many sops to the potential investor/s looking for short/mid term gains. In sectors such as IT, Infrastructure, Hospitality, Hi-tech (including Nuclear Power Engineering, Alternative energy etc)as well as in Avaition and Space resaerch, there are special promises.!! Sunrise as well as traditional industries have more of a future in Russia than many other places. permalink quote 0 Vijay Singh
John 27 November, 2008, 18:39	Just keep shorting the RSX and shorting the Ruble. You will make money. permalink quote 0 John
Enrique 3 December, 2008, 11:10	It is evident that if Brazil, which has an economy similar to Russia´s (10% smaller at PPP) manufactures 3 million cars a year, there is a lot of space for growth in the Russian Federation as Russia just produces 1.6 million cars, half Brazil´s or half Spain´s. permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 3 December, 2008, 11:18	In the Far East, if we think about what kind of high tech product can be manufactured to compete in the Chinese market probably there is room in the Health industry with German and Dutch manufacturers like Siemens and Phillips building a factory in Vladivostok for export to the Chinese and Korean markets. Apart from traditional industries like timber, fisheries, oil and gas. permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 5 December, 2008, 03:33	Interesting the Businessweek´s Hot Growth 100 Companies 2008 in Europe. The Russian representation: Nº 8. PHARMASTANDARD: Sales $312 million. Pharmaceuticals. Nº 17. RASPADSKAYA: Sales $524 million. Diversified Metals and Mining. Nº 66. JSC THE SEVENTH CONTINENT: $895 million. Hypermarkets and Hyper Centers. permalink quote 0 Enrique
John 12 December, 2008, 15:14	I think shorting Gazprom will work for some time. Oil has more to go down. Shorting the RSX and Rouble has also been successful. Shorting Vimpel wil not make money.they are closer to the bottom and don't have much chance of going too much lower. I would also go longer in the heavy energy using European manufacturers that are benefitting from the cheaper oil. permalink quote 0 John
Lavy 13 December, 2008, 13:29	Russia is at the crossroads of Economic history, as are many economies that are tied but not really bound to the 'old' mature capitalist Economies of mostly the 'WEST', except of course Japan etc... It has to decide whether it will choose its own course and become its own Growth engine or depend for the fluctuating fortunes of those 'old' gentiles to rise again? Infrastructure, new tech,finance, energy,tourism, agri-based,nuclear,space, military hardwares and numerous other sectors provide the space Russia and others are looking for to escape this downturn as well as herald the beginning of a new independent era that is bereft of these 'old' capricial influences!! Let's thus welcome the advent of the new 'new deal'... permalink quote 0 Lavy
Bianca 17 December, 2008, 19:57	The opportunities are many. Energy is now undervalued, understandably. But it will not stay low. Russian energy companies are good values. But Russia may have to SYNTHETIZE many of its achievents in a PRACTICAL way. As Russia has a large portion of the country covered by permafrost, and many regions are subject to extereme temperature fluctuations, I am really surprised that Russia is not investing in modern, energy-efficient cities built on a principles of space-stations/closed-in malls. Such fully-connected structres could integrate infrastructure, from transportation to heating and cooling, take advantage of green technologies, solar and wind, as well as termonuclear. Instead of building the traditional european style towns, it is time to add structures together as lego pieces, so that they can flexibly expand on the already existing infrastructure (rail, road, airtravel). It will not only be cheaper, but also have a higher quality of life inside by allowing easy moving around to work, school, recreation. Since most energy related projects are in the difficult to inhabit climate zones, this will give more flexibility to bring branches of universities, medical facilities, recreational and retail business, etc. Equally, defence and space industry may take advantage of the more mobile, better educated population that will be attracted to live a super-modern life-style. This will protect the environment, by less polution, as well as the "smaller footprint" on the environmentally sensitive land. I often wondered why is Russia so reticent to take advantage of its magnificent spaces outside of the European portion of the country. This is where the development, science and eurasian transportation infrastructure is moving --- may as well invest with vision, and with the already available technologies, just creatively combined. This can also serve as the magnet for brain drain from other countries, as the younger and more dynamic folks would like to escape the lack of dynamism in Europe. I agree with most commentators on the type of potentially successful investment in Russia, provided that it would be pulled together by a new lifestyle and innovation. permalink quote 0 Bianca
Johnny 25 December, 2008, 04:23	== Ukrainian Gas Saga == Problem and opportunity I believe that you have to take on a marginal pricing idea which as you know is the idea that a dollar earned is better than nothing at all, if the pipe is shut down. I.e. it permalink quote 0 Johnny
Enrique 26 December, 2008, 16:07	I have read in the "Moscow Times" something ridiculous and dangerous at the same time, based on lack of knowledge. Marina Pustilnik, in her article "This is the end, my friend", ends her stor with a "beautiful idea" which she had read in another blog suggesting the Russian Government to "lease the Far East to Japan for 50 years, the way the Chinese leased Hong Kong to the British...". - That idea is ridiculous because: a) Japan has a Public Debt which amounts to 183% of GDP and its budget deficit is expected to be over 8% next year, so it is not in a position to undertake the infraestructure work that the Far East needs... b) In fact it is easier for the Russian Federation, with its low 6% Public Debt and budget surplus, to undertake that effort in infraestructre as it has started to do in Vladivostok. c) Hong Kong was not leased, it was confiscated after the Opium War which Britain declared on China. Remember that it was a War whose aim was to increse drug consumption in China... d) Obviously Japanese objective would be natural resources which Japan lacks and the work force for those resources will be one and obvious: Chinese workers, because they are cheaper and, after all, Japanese population is aging and the Far East land would have to be given up after several decades. So just get the maximum profit and, then, give it back. e) Meanwhile, Hong Kong, doesn permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 29 December, 2008, 15:46	I mean in "Moscow News"... permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 13 January, 2009, 14:36	With import duties rising, it is evident Japanese auto manufactureres like Nissan which are losing billions in the UK, or Toyota which is losing billions for the first time in History, should build new plants in an emerging market like Russia, which has becomen the first market for cars in Europe. A Toyota manufacturing plant in Vladivostok and another, larger, in Moscow, would be an interestting option. permalink quote 0 Enrique
Enrique 20 January, 2009, 02:26	As I have read in Russiatoday that there is already a Toyota factory in Saint Petersbourg, then what will be needed is just another one in Vladivostok, and a Nissan factory next to Renault in Moscow (Renault has 44% of the Nissan shares) permalink quote 0 Enrique
Linked 15 August, 2010, 20:01	I ran across this article at Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/14/putin-s-russia-exile-businessmen.html It paints a pretty dismal picture for the future of business in Russia due to police "raids" that target businesses for hostile takeover by corrupt officials. The longer term problem for Russia according to the author, is that many of the brightest business minds are leaving Russia because of this problem. The article points out that Medvedev has introduced legislation to help, and has warned officials not to take part in it, but the speeches have largely gone ignored. The authors feel that Putin has more influence and his actions involving the dismantling of Yukos, has set a precedence. The posts I see here are much more optimistic. Some of the comments in the discussion area following the article are hostile towards Russia, and it angers me that Americans continue to carry this arrogant and ignorant attitude towards Russia. permalink quote 0 Linked

Enrique 20 November, 2008, 15:18

Lukoil has offered to buy a 30% stake in the Spanish company Repsol. A merger of both companies would be a good business for both according to Roberto Centeno, former adviser of the Spanish energy firms Enagas and Campsa (article "Lukoil o Gazprom: una oportunidad histórica"/"Lukoil or Gazprom: a historical opportunity" in the main Spanish economic newspaper "Expansión" last 14 Nov. 2008) Both companies are complementary (Repsol in Spain and Latin America/Lukoil in Russia and Eastern Europe) Last year Repsol revenues were $61 billion and Lukoil´s $54 billion (2007) so together they have revenues of $115 billion, similar to ENI´s $127 billion and just over half of Total´s $217 billion, not to talk about Exxon, Shell or BP. So a Repsol-Lukoil merger would be just the beginning of a merging process that could include Rosneft and ENI to build a company with revenues of over $250 billion, more than Total and reaching BP. Repsol has oil reserves in Argentina (YPF) and Brazil, ENI has reserves in Libya, Lukoil and Rosneft have reserves in Kanthy-Mansi (Russian Federation) We should celebrate a Lukoil-Repsol merger just as the beginning of a new giant that could welcome Rosneft and ENI.even if that means collaboration between the Governments of Spain, Russia, Italy and Argentina. If they are able to build an integrated company of $250 billion which can compete to Total, Exxon, Shell, BP and Conoco.GREAT!!!

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 23 November, 2008, 23:52

For Spain the new low cost Air companies have fostered tourism even in downturn times. It would be great for Sochi and Vladivostok to be the hub of low cost Air companies like EasyJet, Air Berlin, RyanAir etc.

permalink quote Enrique

Vijay Singh 24 November, 2008, 12:22

Corporate Russia can offer a great many sops to the potential investor/s looking for short/mid term gains. In sectors such as IT, Infrastructure, Hospitality, Hi-tech (including Nuclear Power Engineering, Alternative energy etc)as well as in Avaition and Space resaerch, there are special promises.!! Sunrise as well as traditional industries have more of a future in Russia than many other places.

permalink quote Vijay Singh

John 27 November, 2008, 18:39

Just keep shorting the RSX and shorting the Ruble. You will make money.

permalink quote John

Enrique 3 December, 2008, 11:10

It is evident that if Brazil, which has an economy similar to Russia´s (10% smaller at PPP) manufactures 3 million cars a year, there is a lot of space for growth in the Russian Federation as Russia just produces 1.6 million cars, half Brazil´s or half Spain´s.

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 3 December, 2008, 11:18

In the Far East, if we think about what kind of high tech product can be manufactured to compete in the Chinese market probably there is room in the Health industry with German and Dutch manufacturers like Siemens and Phillips building a factory in Vladivostok for export to the Chinese and Korean markets. Apart from traditional industries like timber, fisheries, oil and gas.

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 5 December, 2008, 03:33

Interesting the Businessweek´s Hot Growth 100 Companies 2008 in Europe. The Russian representation: Nº 8. PHARMASTANDARD: Sales $312 million. Pharmaceuticals. Nº 17. RASPADSKAYA: Sales $524 million. Diversified Metals and Mining. Nº 66. JSC THE SEVENTH CONTINENT: $895 million. Hypermarkets and Hyper Centers.

permalink quote Enrique

John 12 December, 2008, 15:14

I think shorting Gazprom will work for some time. Oil has more to go down. Shorting the RSX and Rouble has also been successful. Shorting Vimpel wil not make money.they are closer to the bottom and don't have much chance of going too much lower. I would also go longer in the heavy energy using European manufacturers that are benefitting from the cheaper oil.

permalink quote John

Lavy 13 December, 2008, 13:29

Russia is at the crossroads of Economic history, as are many economies that are tied but not really bound to the 'old' mature capitalist Economies of mostly the 'WEST', except of course Japan etc... It has to decide whether it will choose its own course and become its own Growth engine or depend for the fluctuating fortunes of those 'old' gentiles to rise again? Infrastructure, new tech,finance, energy,tourism, agri-based,nuclear,space, military hardwares and numerous other sectors provide the space Russia and others are looking for to escape this downturn as well as herald the beginning of a new independent era that is bereft of these 'old' capricial influences!! Let's thus welcome the advent of the new 'new deal'...

permalink quote Lavy

Bianca 17 December, 2008, 19:57

The opportunities are many. Energy is now undervalued, understandably. But it will not stay low. Russian energy companies are good values. But Russia may have to SYNTHETIZE many of its achievents in a PRACTICAL way. As Russia has a large portion of the country covered by permafrost, and many regions are subject to extereme temperature fluctuations, I am really surprised that Russia is not investing in modern, energy-efficient cities built on a principles of space-stations/closed-in malls. Such fully-connected structres could integrate infrastructure, from transportation to heating and cooling, take advantage of green technologies, solar and wind, as well as termonuclear. Instead of building the traditional european style towns, it is time to add structures together as lego pieces, so that they can flexibly expand on the already existing infrastructure (rail, road, airtravel). It will not only be cheaper, but also have a higher quality of life inside by allowing easy moving around to work, school, recreation. Since most energy related projects are in the difficult to inhabit climate zones, this will give more flexibility to bring branches of universities, medical facilities, recreational and retail business, etc. Equally, defence and space industry may take advantage of the more mobile, better educated population that will be attracted to live a super-modern life-style. This will protect the environment, by less polution, as well as the "smaller footprint" on the environmentally sensitive land. I often wondered why is Russia so reticent to take advantage of its magnificent spaces outside of the European portion of the country. This is where the development, science and eurasian transportation infrastructure is moving --- may as well invest with vision, and with the already available technologies, just creatively combined. This can also serve as the magnet for brain drain from other countries, as the younger and more dynamic folks would like to escape the lack of dynamism in Europe. I agree with most commentators on the type of potentially successful investment in Russia, provided that it would be pulled together by a new lifestyle and innovation.

permalink quote Bianca

Johnny 25 December, 2008, 04:23

== Ukrainian Gas Saga == Problem and opportunity I believe that you have to take on a marginal pricing idea which as you know is the idea that a dollar earned is better than nothing at all, if the pipe is shut down. I.e. it

permalink quote Johnny

Enrique 26 December, 2008, 16:07

I have read in the "Moscow Times" something ridiculous and dangerous at the same time, based on lack of knowledge. Marina Pustilnik, in her article "This is the end, my friend", ends her stor with a "beautiful idea" which she had read in another blog suggesting the Russian Government to "lease the Far East to Japan for 50 years, the way the Chinese leased Hong Kong to the British...". - That idea is ridiculous because: a) Japan has a Public Debt which amounts to 183% of GDP and its budget deficit is expected to be over 8% next year, so it is not in a position to undertake the infraestructure work that the Far East needs... b) In fact it is easier for the Russian Federation, with its low 6% Public Debt and budget surplus, to undertake that effort in infraestructre as it has started to do in Vladivostok. c) Hong Kong was not leased, it was confiscated after the Opium War which Britain declared on China. Remember that it was a War whose aim was to increse drug consumption in China... d) Obviously Japanese objective would be natural resources which Japan lacks and the work force for those resources will be one and obvious: Chinese workers, because they are cheaper and, after all, Japanese population is aging and the Far East land would have to be given up after several decades. So just get the maximum profit and, then, give it back. e) Meanwhile, Hong Kong, doesn

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 29 December, 2008, 15:46

I mean in "Moscow News"...

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 13 January, 2009, 14:36

With import duties rising, it is evident Japanese auto manufactureres like Nissan which are losing billions in the UK, or Toyota which is losing billions for the first time in History, should build new plants in an emerging market like Russia, which has becomen the first market for cars in Europe. A Toyota manufacturing plant in Vladivostok and another, larger, in Moscow, would be an interestting option.

permalink quote Enrique

Enrique 20 January, 2009, 02:26

As I have read in Russiatoday that there is already a Toyota factory in Saint Petersbourg, then what will be needed is just another one in Vladivostok, and a Nissan factory next to Renault in Moscow (Renault has 44% of the Nissan shares)

permalink quote Enrique

Linked 15 August, 2010, 20:01

I ran across this article at Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/14/putin-s-russia-exile-businessmen.html It paints a pretty dismal picture for the future of business in Russia due to police "raids" that target businesses for hostile takeover by corrupt officials. The longer term problem for Russia according to the author, is that many of the brightest business minds are leaving Russia because of this problem. The article points out that Medvedev has introduced legislation to help, and has warned officials not to take part in it, but the speeches have largely gone ignored. The authors feel that Putin has more influence and his actions involving the dismantling of Yukos, has set a precedence. The posts I see here are much more optimistic. Some of the comments in the discussion area following the article are hostile towards Russia, and it angers me that Americans continue to carry this arrogant and ignorant attitude towards Russia.

permalink quote Linked

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