Is this really the end of the gas dispute? Does Ukraine play fair?


noe 19 January, 2009, 15:37	Ukraine is highly unreliable, Thymoshenko has good will to Russia, but Yushenko doesn't, the question is: does Thymoshenko have enough authority to end up the dispute by this last agreement? the answer is no she doesn't, so let's see what happens, Ukraine = unreliable permalink quote 0 noe
Margaret 19 January, 2009, 16:08	It is the end of this episode of the ongoing gas dispute. It is only a battle, not the war. There is no way Ukraine can continue to pay for its gas; they could not pay for the low prices in 2008 and certainly cannot afford the higher prices in 2009. Ukraine cannot play fair, because they have no money. All they in their favor is propaganda and the EU distrust of Russia. Ukraine is going to play that gambit again, to hold Europe hostage while they point tearfully at Moscow, "they are being mean to us! boo-hoo!" I expect it later this year. And Russia will be the bad guy, again. permalink quote 0 Margaret
Donald Fraser 19 January, 2009, 19:03	It is satisfying to see that Russia and Ukrainia can come to a mutual understanding on the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainia. Even with increased independence of former Soviet republics in the modern world, cooperation and mutual problem-solving skills call for closeness and intimacy in the solutions necessary for nations living in an interdependent world. permalink quote 0 Donald Fraser
TRIATHLON 20 January, 2009, 01:19	WHO IS THE UKRAINE PAY MASTER? Is this the really the end of the gas dispute? NO! You can bet dollars to donuts that the (IRI) International Republican Institute of the (USI/MIC) United States of Israel, Military Industrial Complex will create as much mischief to prevent end this dispute as posssible. Comrade Chairman Putin of the Russian Federation met with his neighbors to sort a longstanding impasse over mineral rights underneath the Caspian Sea, where an estimated (257) two-hundred fifty seven trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves have yet to be developed. Today three new countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and. The (IRI) web site showed and active and on going interest in Georgia oil pipeline, the (IRI) expected to refine the oil coming from the pipeline built to circumvent the Russian in return. A (USI/MIC)-led militarization of Georgia, which likely emboldened the former Soviet Republic to try to resolve the conflict over South Ossetia by military means. "Israel Backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia. Does Ukraine play fair? It's not a matter of playing fair it's who paying the price on what the point spread should be, how many goals do you want missed and how much are you willing to pay? permalink quote 0 TRIATHLON
Vadim 25 20 January, 2009, 06:27	It is clear that Ukraine has chosen wrong position in gas conflict. As well as it is clear that Putin is again successful and has shown himself as a strong and willingful politician. I do hope that Timoshenko will restore Ukraine transit country's reputation by fulfilling the agreement. Good Luck Yulia! permalink quote 0 Vadim 25
Vijay 20 January, 2009, 10:32	U can bet ur last pajamas that Yush will raise the bogey when the time for next payment comes along!! He wants anyhow, anyways, anymeans present a fait accompli to his non-orange successors that Ukraine cannot survive being under Russia's gas pressure tactics (Phew!!)and somehow or the other has to come under EU's financial umbrella...!! permalink quote 0 Vijay
joseph 20 January, 2009, 10:32	Ukraine govt is not the only ones who cant pay thier gas bills,in england,the legalised gas companies have hiked prices as much as 35 percent,dont pay ,and thier legalised thugs will come and cut you off.anyway russia is only asking what other european countries pay for thier gas.ps ukraine is part of the eu,i think?,they can ask the eu.for cash. permalink quote 0 joseph
fred 20 January, 2009, 10:39	is this the end of crisis ? i don't think so ! Ukraine is living on 2 items : Industrial production (heavilly dependent on Gas price) and Gas transit ... up to now , GWB was sending checks more or less openly to have Ukraine playing the role of "in between" due to its position on the way from Russia to European Union ... (the fear = Ru/EU getting a bit too close to each other ... ) soon it is going to be election in Ukraine , Yulia has definitely scored a very good mark against other competitors ... by getting back a little sens , she has managed to understand that the previous US checks are going to bounce now ... that is the main issue with betrayers , as soon as they see it fit , they betray you for what they see better ...! so she swallowed her pride and went to Moscow , making a deal with what was Evil in her eyes , not long ago ... but her score came heavy on the Ukrainians , sooner or later the Gas transit is going to be memory (south and north pipelines) , Gas price is an announced near death state for the Ukrainian industrial production (in its actual form ...) once again , it is a short term political decision aimed at benefiting someone from the serail ! so , it may be the case that the Gas Transit problems are over for a while (doubtful !) but it will be to the price of a deeper crisis , in this place on the way from European Union to Russia ... A Crisis both Russia and E.U. CANNOT afford not to fix in a way or an other ... long term cooperation between E.U. and Russia is therefor even more essential than before ! so thanks a lot to all the team of R.T. for bringing UNbiased news about Russia (at least to bring an other point of view ) permalink quote 0 fred
David 20 January, 2009, 13:09	The Western Media have said that it is Russia who has turned on the taps, again. They have made it sound like it was Russia all along when, in fact, it has been Ukraine all along. Russia needs to step up its activities in organising another route for the transfer of gas and oil, skirting Ukraine. Trust Ukraine, never in a month of Sundays. Just turn the gas supply off to Ukraine the second they fail to pay. Make Ukraine pay up front - no money no service. permalink quote 0 David
Josh 20 January, 2009, 15:31	It is clear, that Russia is implementing the plan to gain the control the all gas transporting system of the former USSR. It almoust got the control of the Belarus pipes, and wants to control Ukrainian. And all this theater which we saw during the last 3 week - it's just the big game of negotiating who will bite bigger part of the money cake. permalink quote 0 Josh
Shitcock 20 January, 2009, 18:12	Yes, Ukraine plays fair but Russia doesn't. I have no doubt in my mind that it's Putin and his ex-KGB gangsters behind it all. -Shitcock permalink quote 0 Shitcock
Odd 20 January, 2009, 18:20	Who do you think is behind Ukraina - the Big Bad Wolf I think... permalink quote 0 Odd
russ 20 January, 2009, 19:35	Timoshenko supposedly still wants Ukraine in NATO and the EU so this is far from over. I personally doubt Ukraine will ever be in NATO considering now that Russia has a veto over NATO operations in part due to NATO needed Russian transit to resupply forces in Afghanistan and other major NATO powers like France and Germany do not want Ukraine in NATO because they do not want any possible conflict with Russia over Ukraine. France and Germany want energy and Russia provides that they see no need for a military conflict with Russia. permalink quote 0 russ
Mihal Mihalich 21 January, 2009, 01:27	Dear Ladies & Gentlemen Lets get to the basics. During 2008 Ukraine was buying Russian gas for 169$ for 1000 cubes and selling it for ALL Ukraine private and business sector for almost 300$. And ALL gas consumers: private, corporate and government have paid their bills for gas. ALL OF THEM. That means Ukraine HAS about twice much money they supposed to have to payoff 2 billions $ debt to Gasprom. Ukraine asks for 2 billion $ credit claiming it doesn’t have the money, European bankers what how Ukraine currency inflating and that despite 18 billion$ they already loaned them Ukraine still comes short every year and in current Financial credit crisis banks are not willing to grand them a loan. Ukraine singed transit charter that they guaranty energy transit no matter what. And January 1 2009 new contract gas for Ukraine was not signed, Ukraine siphoned gas from European pipeline and 6 days later stopped transit completely. Ukraine needs 1 pipeline and they closed 4 channeling all gas for themselves. Which is why Gas didn’t go though Ukraine at first attempt. TRANSIT pipeline was EMPTY while it supposed to constantly have over 100 million cubes of gas in it at all times(if I understand it correctly). Ukraine has the money to pay for gas but they don’t. Ukraine refused to sign best deal on the market right now of 250$ per 1000 cubic miters. Ukraine ignored transit charter obligations to Europe and cut them gas without any warning. It was PURELY Political decision that came from Ukraine president himself, and it originated from Nabucco pipeline scammers. The people who underestimated their desire to have energy security. Europe would rather send NATO troops to guard transit pipeline then invest into Nabucco and become vulnerable to many more unstable transit countries. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey already made their choice. They choose Russia. Now Nabucco authors see a need to destabilize Ukraine as much as they can to create risks or gas piracy for years so it would make Europe unstable forcing investment capital to go to other countries like United States for example. Clinton Democrats will ensure Europe high risks Years. So I think as long as Americans have their man in Ukraine, Europe will have no guaranties for transit. Standard and Poors will make sure that everybody has lower ratings than United States for next 100 years and offer World to buy sub prime derivatives version 2.0; News Corp, CNN, BBC etc will advertise Failed Europe and Triple A sub prime derivatives versions 2 and 3 And Europe will be stuck with unpredictable Orange and Rose revolution fans for as long as they support it. Best regards permalink quote 0 Mihal Mihalich
Marko 21 January, 2009, 02:05	I think this is not the end of the gas dispute.Because the USA(satana)will tray some other vay to make more problems to Russia. Long live greatest Russia.Broter tzar Putin and Medvedev GOD bless you and our mother Russia. Serb who love Russsia and Serb come from Republic Srbska permalink quote 0 Marko
fred 21 January, 2009, 08:45	Russ : i happen to be both French and German ... know quite Russia and Ukraine ... the reason why France and Deutschland do not want Ukraine to be part of NATO : it is not strictly a question of having energy ...not directly ...! just try to imagine what could have been the situation of the crisis with Ukraine being technically backed-up by Nato ... it is a well known fact that a country ALWAYS USE all its forces in a conflict when things turn bad ... so it was high-time for Ukraine to understand that they CANNOT live if posting themselves as a threat to their neighbor ... this crisis is over , but the next one is going to be a human (not gas) crisis ! how many Ukrainians are going to flee their country because of the new conditions ? (gas price + jobs losses + hardship of life + industrial production collapsing + etc ...) Russia welcomes Ukrainians without visas , E.U. cannot and won't accept them , the situation in U.K. is bad enough not to swallow a gigantic immigration , even if they used to do so (in the name of "learning english" pseudo-school ) or the new "nearly legal immigrants" would have to work for so little wages that it is better for them to stay in their home-country .. Ukraine is REALLY a problem which has to settled down by both Russia and European Union in a peaceful and cooperative way ... if we fail to understand this , sooner or later the only place where Ukraine will remain existing will be history books ! permalink quote 0 fred
Bianca 21 January, 2009, 17:25	This is NOT over. This is a geopolitical dispute, and therefore, just a stalemate. Yuschenko, while in power, will continue to be the looney irrational agent of provocation, as his paymasters know that he is unelectable. Yulia has a history in gas underground, and a thick dossier here in US. Do not doubt that Russia has the same information. The blueprint has been in place for a long time. The objective still is to intimidate Central Asian countries to cancell their current contractual obligations, and fork over their reserves to Western Oil Majors. The pressure is mostly on Turkmenistan. Even though Turkmenistan sold its entire production to Russia through 2028, and the exporation rights mostly to China, any "regime change" would result in the cancellation of these agreements. The open pressure is on Iran, as any agressive move on Iran would spook Turkmenistan into caving in. This is what the famous NABUCCO is all about. It is about control of Middle East, military threat hanging over Iran, and the resulting cave-in in fearfull energy-rich Central Asia. Georgia is an important pivot in these plans. Will the blueprint be followed? There are signs of shift. In the latest skirmish over "Ukranian" gas prices --- clearly coreographed elsewhere--- EU has changed its classical wishy-washy approach. At first, tried to "equally blame", to be forced to act against Ukraine to end the crisis. EU deal with Russia made the "recommnedation" that the solution be found on the Prime Minister level, getting Yuschenko out, and Yulia in. The other sign of change is EU stopping the blame of Russia in South Ossetian War. PACE no longer asks Russia to undo the recognition of the two breakaway republics. Additionally, the deal with Russia's CSTO, transit for NATO supplies to Afghanistan has been approved. The appetite for war with Iran has been diminished, especially after the Gaza adventure, where Iran gained in support in Arab world. The countries that tried to crate an anti-Iranian alliance --- Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan --- all became much weaker internally as a result of Gaza tragedy. And finally, there is a financial crisis going on. US may not have all the money it wants to be the policemen providing "protection" for oil majors in their effort to smash their way into Central Asian energy riches. And, not to forget, US Treasury Bonds will come for auction, and China is expected to be the buyer of the debt. However, while China will for sure buy some, the extent of their investment may be much lower. Faced with the need to spend at home, along with the real threat of mega inflation in US, such investments may be nothing more but buying a political goodwill. China will soon have to examine how far does it want to go in subsidizing the occupation of Iraq, and the upcoming bloodbath in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is the Chinese money that gives the financial freedom to indulge in the commercially unviable NABUCCO. It is the Chinese money that bolsters Ukraine to play games of turn-the-gas-tap-off, so that Russia and EU are sent into a crisis. The realities are changing, and so will the world. As Obama said in his Inaugural speach, one must change when the ground underneath has shifted. The question is, what will the change entail. Would it mean mobilizing economically strapped populace into seeking more wars, or will we see some simmering down of provokative, aggressive acts? Or some accommodations will be reached among powers, even if only temporary. permalink quote 0 Bianca
Leyena 22 January, 2009, 09:02	Russia!!! Get your dirty hands off Ukraine!! We are not your slaves any more!! Get over it!! permalink quote 0 Leyena
Enrique 22 January, 2009, 16:04	If Ukraine continues losing weight compared to the dynamism of the Russian economy, Ukraine will become in the future in the first source of human capital for the Russian Federation. After the current World Recession, the Russian Federation is expected to continue suffering a demographic collapse, with population falling 0.4% every year...so that will lead to an increasing import of human capital, an increasing immigration from Ukraine which will fill the demographic gap. Ukrainian immigrants are the only resource that could permit the Russian Federation to keep itself as an important World player at least until the level of health deseases Russia bears (alcoholism, tobacco consumption, AIDS etc.) can be lowered to Western European standards, or at least to Mexican, Argentinian or Cuban standards. Life expectancy in both Russia and Ukraine has to increase, but the problem is even worse in the Russian Federation in spite of an income per head 30% higher than the Ukrainian at PPP. permalink quote 0 Enrique
Sam 22 January, 2009, 19:08	Does Ukraine play fair? Yes as fair as any other Mafia organisation. i think in the long run Ukraine will stop its role as a transit country.New pipe lines would more likely spring up faster then planned bypassing Ukraine. I see Ukraine losing all revenue from the gas energy trade very rapidly. permalink quote 0 Sam

noe 19 January, 2009, 15:37

Ukraine is highly unreliable, Thymoshenko has good will to Russia, but Yushenko doesn't, the question is: does Thymoshenko have enough authority to end up the dispute by this last agreement? the answer is no she doesn't, so let's see what happens, Ukraine = unreliable

permalink quote noe

Margaret 19 January, 2009, 16:08

It is the end of this episode of the ongoing gas dispute. It is only a battle, not the war. There is no way Ukraine can continue to pay for its gas; they could not pay for the low prices in 2008 and certainly cannot afford the higher prices in 2009. Ukraine cannot play fair, because they have no money. All they in their favor is propaganda and the EU distrust of Russia. Ukraine is going to play that gambit again, to hold Europe hostage while they point tearfully at Moscow, "they are being mean to us! boo-hoo!" I expect it later this year. And Russia will be the bad guy, again.

permalink quote Margaret

Donald Fraser 19 January, 2009, 19:03

It is satisfying to see that Russia and Ukrainia can come to a mutual understanding on the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainia. Even with increased independence of former Soviet republics in the modern world, cooperation and mutual problem-solving skills call for closeness and intimacy in the solutions necessary for nations living in an interdependent world.

permalink quote Donald Fraser

TRIATHLON 20 January, 2009, 01:19

WHO IS THE UKRAINE PAY MASTER? Is this the really the end of the gas dispute? NO! You can bet dollars to donuts that the (IRI) International Republican Institute of the (USI/MIC) United States of Israel, Military Industrial Complex will create as much mischief to prevent end this dispute as posssible. Comrade Chairman Putin of the Russian Federation met with his neighbors to sort a longstanding impasse over mineral rights underneath the Caspian Sea, where an estimated (257) two-hundred fifty seven trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves have yet to be developed. Today three new countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and. The (IRI) web site showed and active and on going interest in Georgia oil pipeline, the (IRI) expected to refine the oil coming from the pipeline built to circumvent the Russian in return. A (USI/MIC)-led militarization of Georgia, which likely emboldened the former Soviet Republic to try to resolve the conflict over South Ossetia by military means. "Israel Backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia. Does Ukraine play fair? It's not a matter of playing fair it's who paying the price on what the point spread should be, how many goals do you want missed and how much are you willing to pay?

permalink quote TRIATHLON

Vadim 25 20 January, 2009, 06:27

It is clear that Ukraine has chosen wrong position in gas conflict. As well as it is clear that Putin is again successful and has shown himself as a strong and willingful politician. I do hope that Timoshenko will restore Ukraine transit country's reputation by fulfilling the agreement. Good Luck Yulia!

permalink quote Vadim 25

Vijay 20 January, 2009, 10:32

U can bet ur last pajamas that Yush will raise the bogey when the time for next payment comes along!! He wants anyhow, anyways, anymeans present a fait accompli to his non-orange successors that Ukraine cannot survive being under Russia's gas pressure tactics (Phew!!)and somehow or the other has to come under EU's financial umbrella...!!

permalink quote Vijay

joseph 20 January, 2009, 10:32

Ukraine govt is not the only ones who cant pay thier gas bills,in england,the legalised gas companies have hiked prices as much as 35 percent,dont pay ,and thier legalised thugs will come and cut you off.anyway russia is only asking what other european countries pay for thier gas.ps ukraine is part of the eu,i think?,they can ask the eu.for cash.

permalink quote joseph

fred 20 January, 2009, 10:39

is this the end of crisis ? i don't think so ! Ukraine is living on 2 items : Industrial production (heavilly dependent on Gas price) and Gas transit ... up to now , GWB was sending checks more or less openly to have Ukraine playing the role of "in between" due to its position on the way from Russia to European Union ... (the fear = Ru/EU getting a bit too close to each other ... ) soon it is going to be election in Ukraine , Yulia has definitely scored a very good mark against other competitors ... by getting back a little sens , she has managed to understand that the previous US checks are going to bounce now ... that is the main issue with betrayers , as soon as they see it fit , they betray you for what they see better ...! so she swallowed her pride and went to Moscow , making a deal with what was Evil in her eyes , not long ago ... but her score came heavy on the Ukrainians , sooner or later the Gas transit is going to be memory (south and north pipelines) , Gas price is an announced near death state for the Ukrainian industrial production (in its actual form ...) once again , it is a short term political decision aimed at benefiting someone from the serail ! so , it may be the case that the Gas Transit problems are over for a while (doubtful !) but it will be to the price of a deeper crisis , in this place on the way from European Union to Russia ... A Crisis both Russia and E.U. CANNOT afford not to fix in a way or an other ... long term cooperation between E.U. and Russia is therefor even more essential than before ! so thanks a lot to all the team of R.T. for bringing UNbiased news about Russia (at least to bring an other point of view )

permalink quote fred

David 20 January, 2009, 13:09

The Western Media have said that it is Russia who has turned on the taps, again. They have made it sound like it was Russia all along when, in fact, it has been Ukraine all along. Russia needs to step up its activities in organising another route for the transfer of gas and oil, skirting Ukraine. Trust Ukraine, never in a month of Sundays. Just turn the gas supply off to Ukraine the second they fail to pay. Make Ukraine pay up front - no money no service.

permalink quote David

Josh 20 January, 2009, 15:31

It is clear, that Russia is implementing the plan to gain the control the all gas transporting system of the former USSR. It almoust got the control of the Belarus pipes, and wants to control Ukrainian. And all this theater which we saw during the last 3 week - it's just the big game of negotiating who will bite bigger part of the money cake.

permalink quote Josh

Shitcock 20 January, 2009, 18:12

Yes, Ukraine plays fair but Russia doesn't. I have no doubt in my mind that it's Putin and his ex-KGB gangsters behind it all. -Shitcock

permalink quote Shitcock

Odd 20 January, 2009, 18:20

Who do you think is behind Ukraina - the Big Bad Wolf I think...

permalink quote Odd

russ 20 January, 2009, 19:35

Timoshenko supposedly still wants Ukraine in NATO and the EU so this is far from over. I personally doubt Ukraine will ever be in NATO considering now that Russia has a veto over NATO operations in part due to NATO needed Russian transit to resupply forces in Afghanistan and other major NATO powers like France and Germany do not want Ukraine in NATO because they do not want any possible conflict with Russia over Ukraine. France and Germany want energy and Russia provides that they see no need for a military conflict with Russia.

permalink quote russ

Mihal Mihalich 21 January, 2009, 01:27

Dear Ladies & Gentlemen Lets get to the basics. During 2008 Ukraine was buying Russian gas for 169$ for 1000 cubes and selling it for ALL Ukraine private and business sector for almost 300$. And ALL gas consumers: private, corporate and government have paid their bills for gas. ALL OF THEM. That means Ukraine HAS about twice much money they supposed to have to payoff 2 billions $ debt to Gasprom. Ukraine asks for 2 billion $ credit claiming it doesn’t have the money, European bankers what how Ukraine currency inflating and that despite 18 billion$ they already loaned them Ukraine still comes short every year and in current Financial credit crisis banks are not willing to grand them a loan. Ukraine singed transit charter that they guaranty energy transit no matter what. And January 1 2009 new contract gas for Ukraine was not signed, Ukraine siphoned gas from European pipeline and 6 days later stopped transit completely. Ukraine needs 1 pipeline and they closed 4 channeling all gas for themselves. Which is why Gas didn’t go though Ukraine at first attempt. TRANSIT pipeline was EMPTY while it supposed to constantly have over 100 million cubes of gas in it at all times(if I understand it correctly). Ukraine has the money to pay for gas but they don’t. Ukraine refused to sign best deal on the market right now of 250$ per 1000 cubic miters. Ukraine ignored transit charter obligations to Europe and cut them gas without any warning. It was PURELY Political decision that came from Ukraine president himself, and it originated from Nabucco pipeline scammers. The people who underestimated their desire to have energy security. Europe would rather send NATO troops to guard transit pipeline then invest into Nabucco and become vulnerable to many more unstable transit countries. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey already made their choice. They choose Russia. Now Nabucco authors see a need to destabilize Ukraine as much as they can to create risks or gas piracy for years so it would make Europe unstable forcing investment capital to go to other countries like United States for example. Clinton Democrats will ensure Europe high risks Years. So I think as long as Americans have their man in Ukraine, Europe will have no guaranties for transit. Standard and Poors will make sure that everybody has lower ratings than United States for next 100 years and offer World to buy sub prime derivatives version 2.0; News Corp, CNN, BBC etc will advertise Failed Europe and Triple A sub prime derivatives versions 2 and 3 And Europe will be stuck with unpredictable Orange and Rose revolution fans for as long as they support it. Best regards

permalink quote Mihal Mihalich

Marko 21 January, 2009, 02:05

I think this is not the end of the gas dispute.Because the USA(satana)will tray some other vay to make more problems to Russia. Long live greatest Russia.Broter tzar Putin and Medvedev GOD bless you and our mother Russia. Serb who love Russsia and Serb come from Republic Srbska

permalink quote Marko

fred 21 January, 2009, 08:45

Russ : i happen to be both French and German ... know quite Russia and Ukraine ... the reason why France and Deutschland do not want Ukraine to be part of NATO : it is not strictly a question of having energy ...not directly ...! just try to imagine what could have been the situation of the crisis with Ukraine being technically backed-up by Nato ... it is a well known fact that a country ALWAYS USE all its forces in a conflict when things turn bad ... so it was high-time for Ukraine to understand that they CANNOT live if posting themselves as a threat to their neighbor ... this crisis is over , but the next one is going to be a human (not gas) crisis ! how many Ukrainians are going to flee their country because of the new conditions ? (gas price + jobs losses + hardship of life + industrial production collapsing + etc ...) Russia welcomes Ukrainians without visas , E.U. cannot and won't accept them , the situation in U.K. is bad enough not to swallow a gigantic immigration , even if they used to do so (in the name of "learning english" pseudo-school ) or the new "nearly legal immigrants" would have to work for so little wages that it is better for them to stay in their home-country .. Ukraine is REALLY a problem which has to settled down by both Russia and European Union in a peaceful and cooperative way ... if we fail to understand this , sooner or later the only place where Ukraine will remain existing will be history books !

permalink quote fred

Bianca 21 January, 2009, 17:25

This is NOT over. This is a geopolitical dispute, and therefore, just a stalemate. Yuschenko, while in power, will continue to be the looney irrational agent of provocation, as his paymasters know that he is unelectable. Yulia has a history in gas underground, and a thick dossier here in US. Do not doubt that Russia has the same information. The blueprint has been in place for a long time. The objective still is to intimidate Central Asian countries to cancell their current contractual obligations, and fork over their reserves to Western Oil Majors. The pressure is mostly on Turkmenistan. Even though Turkmenistan sold its entire production to Russia through 2028, and the exporation rights mostly to China, any "regime change" would result in the cancellation of these agreements. The open pressure is on Iran, as any agressive move on Iran would spook Turkmenistan into caving in. This is what the famous NABUCCO is all about. It is about control of Middle East, military threat hanging over Iran, and the resulting cave-in in fearfull energy-rich Central Asia. Georgia is an important pivot in these plans. Will the blueprint be followed? There are signs of shift. In the latest skirmish over "Ukranian" gas prices --- clearly coreographed elsewhere--- EU has changed its classical wishy-washy approach. At first, tried to "equally blame", to be forced to act against Ukraine to end the crisis. EU deal with Russia made the "recommnedation" that the solution be found on the Prime Minister level, getting Yuschenko out, and Yulia in. The other sign of change is EU stopping the blame of Russia in South Ossetian War. PACE no longer asks Russia to undo the recognition of the two breakaway republics. Additionally, the deal with Russia's CSTO, transit for NATO supplies to Afghanistan has been approved. The appetite for war with Iran has been diminished, especially after the Gaza adventure, where Iran gained in support in Arab world. The countries that tried to crate an anti-Iranian alliance --- Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan --- all became much weaker internally as a result of Gaza tragedy. And finally, there is a financial crisis going on. US may not have all the money it wants to be the policemen providing "protection" for oil majors in their effort to smash their way into Central Asian energy riches. And, not to forget, US Treasury Bonds will come for auction, and China is expected to be the buyer of the debt. However, while China will for sure buy some, the extent of their investment may be much lower. Faced with the need to spend at home, along with the real threat of mega inflation in US, such investments may be nothing more but buying a political goodwill. China will soon have to examine how far does it want to go in subsidizing the occupation of Iraq, and the upcoming bloodbath in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is the Chinese money that gives the financial freedom to indulge in the commercially unviable NABUCCO. It is the Chinese money that bolsters Ukraine to play games of turn-the-gas-tap-off, so that Russia and EU are sent into a crisis. The realities are changing, and so will the world. As Obama said in his Inaugural speach, one must change when the ground underneath has shifted. The question is, what will the change entail. Would it mean mobilizing economically strapped populace into seeking more wars, or will we see some simmering down of provokative, aggressive acts? Or some accommodations will be reached among powers, even if only temporary.

permalink quote Bianca

Leyena 22 January, 2009, 09:02

Russia!!! Get your dirty hands off Ukraine!! We are not your slaves any more!! Get over it!!

permalink quote Leyena

Enrique 22 January, 2009, 16:04

If Ukraine continues losing weight compared to the dynamism of the Russian economy, Ukraine will become in the future in the first source of human capital for the Russian Federation. After the current World Recession, the Russian Federation is expected to continue suffering a demographic collapse, with population falling 0.4% every year...so that will lead to an increasing import of human capital, an increasing immigration from Ukraine which will fill the demographic gap. Ukrainian immigrants are the only resource that could permit the Russian Federation to keep itself as an important World player at least until the level of health deseases Russia bears (alcoholism, tobacco consumption, AIDS etc.) can be lowered to Western European standards, or at least to Mexican, Argentinian or Cuban standards. Life expectancy in both Russia and Ukraine has to increase, but the problem is even worse in the Russian Federation in spite of an income per head 30% higher than the Ukrainian at PPP.

permalink quote Enrique

Sam 22 January, 2009, 19:08

Does Ukraine play fair? Yes as fair as any other Mafia organisation. i think in the long run Ukraine will stop its role as a transit country.New pipe lines would more likely spring up faster then planned bypassing Ukraine. I see Ukraine losing all revenue from the gas energy trade very rapidly.

permalink quote Sam

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