Most Russians say conflict over Crimea is “possible”
Published: 19 February, 2009, 14:26
TAGS: Conflict, Russia, Ukraine
According to a survey by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM), about 70 per cent of Russians believe that the threat of a conflict with Ukraine over Crimea could become a reality.
Seventeen per cent of those polled do not exclude the possibility that the conflict may involve military forces. Over a half the respondents say a diplomatic conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the most probable scenario. Meanwhile, 13 per cent of respondents say there will be no conflict over Crimea between the two countries.
VCIOM Survey
The survey was carried out by VCIOM on February 14-15, 2009 and 1,600 people in 140 towns in 42 regions of Russia were polled. The statistical margin of error does not exceed 3.4 %.
The survey also revealed that 44 per cent think a discussion over the territorial alignment of the peninsula needs to take place. The majority of Russians who hold this view have visited Crimea at least once since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Just 22 per cent of the respondents who visited the region only during the Soviet times do not expect any future discussion on the Crimean question.
After Russia’s five-day war with Georgia over the separatist territory of South Ossetia, in which Kiev sided with Georgia, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has suspected Russia of preparing an “intrusion” into Crimea.
Fact box: Crimea
The decision to transfer Crimea to Ukraine was confirmed by the Supreme Soviet’s Decree on February 19, 1954, and the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine. However most of the population in the region are Russian.
In September, 2008, the Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs Vladimir Ogryzko accused the Russian consulate in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, of providing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens. Ogryzko expressed the opinion that Russia will become involved in Crimea under the pretext of protecting the interests of Russian citizens.
19.02.2009, 13:51
2 comments
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Not only the Crimea, the population of the entire region east of the Dnieper should be given a vote on whether they want to stay in Ukraine, or join Russia, most of the people in that region regard themselves as more Russian than Ukrainian, and think they would have a better standard of life, and it would reduce tension in an area where there is sure to be trouble, and the EU and NATO do not help with their constant interference.
With growing strains on the relationship between Ukraine and Russia (if you can still call it a relationship), it seems almost inevitable that the Crimea will become a focal point for this tension to finally snap. Despite being a notable gift to Ukraine, most who live in the Crimea are Russian citizens or consider themselves ethnically Russian. Like jsmith says, 'Russia will do everything to protect it's citizens', as seen in Georgia. In further agreement, conflict is not necessary. I think this will be a socio-political conflict fought with fossil fuels and money as weapons. Russia playing greatly on the people's worsening standard of living in the Crimea and Ukraine playing on the Wests Soviet image of Russia. However, with the economy generally being poor, Russia should be careful not to chastise Ukraine for weakening financial security as Russian economy is ailing too. Using fuel and money will only ever be seen as a negative move by other countries. But, this is something I certainly would like to read more about and yet hope becomes not a story at all. Once this starts, where will it end? Like this essay here :)
I dount there would be much conflict if Russia chose to annex the Crimea - for the following reasons: 1. The Crimean population has very few people who are not Russian or part Russian. 2.The Crimean Tartars understand that their ethnic and cultural autonomy is probably safer with Moscow than Kiev. 3. Prospects for the locals would be much better as part of Russia than as part of Ukraine. Ukraine is not going to be part of the EU for the forseeable future. Ukraine will have to pay back the loans from the IMF and will have to follow tight fiscal policies dictated by the IMF. Ukrainians are going to see very hard times over the next several years. 4. There are many in the Ukranian military who might consider themselves Russian or part Russian. If a load of Russian troops arrived in the Crimea one night and the local Ukranian military were TTFO, I doubt if there would be many shots fired, if any. 5. NATO has no interest in a war with Russia. Whilst there might be some strong rhetoric, it is unlikely to be backed by action, particularly if the move is seen to be popular with the locals. A more subtle approach might be to take a leaf from the American's book and organise locals in the Crimea to stage a revolution. Apart from choosing a suitable colour (rose and orange have been used), there needs to be a plan to block roads and airports, takeover local media and then have a big demo which invades the seat of government, ensuring that this is shown on live TV. Like someone else said, the story might not be much different for everything east of the river Dnieper.