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Ukraine’s budget deficit greatly underestimated – ex-minister

Published: 19 June, 2009, 13:49

TAGS: Ukraine, Budget, Economy


Former Ukrainian Finance Minister, Viktor Pinzenik, assesses that the real deficit of the country’s budget is around 14% of GDP. The figure that the government used when preparing the budget is 3%.

In an interview with Ukrainian newspaper “Levyi Bereg” published on Friday, the ex-official said the current budget overestimates the state’s incomes.

“Each month the budget was to receive 98% of planned incomes. Over the first five months it received 72%. Speaking in real figures, the budget will lack 25 to 30 billion hryvnas (US$3.2 to 3.9 billion),” he said.

He added that the budget also ignores the money spent by the Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz on the natural gas bought from Russia. It lacks reserves of its own due to mounting consumer debt, and the government had to spend de facto budget money to pay for May deliveries. Then there is the pension fund, which also has a deficit, because its investments have left it with no incomes lately.

According to Pinzenik, the real deficit of the Ukrainian budget is $17 billion, or 14% of the country’s gross domestic product.

Back in January, while still in the cabinet, Pinzenik voiced concerns to Prime Minister Timoshenko over what he called an ‘unrealistic budget’. The analytical document was leaked to the media and made much public uproar.

Weeks later the minister resigned, saying his warnings had fallen on deaf ears, and that he couldn’t do his job and prevent the upcoming downfall. Timoshenko said the former member of her team was not capable of working in the extreme conditions of the economical crisis.

Now, Pinzenik says, with no external sources of money, the government has only one option – to print more money. According to him, that’s what is being done already, and since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has pressed about 16 billion hryvnas, or more than $2 billion at the current exchange rate.

This position is shared by President Yushchenko, a rival of the prime minister. In an interview with UNIAN news agency he said: “The unrevised budget is pushing the country towards serious trouble. We can’t fail to review spending policy, can’t live without reforms. We can’t focus on output via printing press.”

Yulia Timoshenko is showing more optimism over the prospects of the economy. Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, she said there was “a small and gradual growth of industrial production month after month,” adding that it indicates that “the crisis has at least stopped,” UNIAN cites her as saying.

The prime minister is also seeking loans from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and probably even Russia, to cover the budget deficit.

An IMF mission is to arrive in Ukraine later this month. The fund is to provide a total of $16.43 billion and has already transferred two tranches of $4.5 and $2.625 billion respectively. The second one arrived two months late. But according to Kommersant-Ukraine business newspaper, the third tranche is under question.

“The IMF has worsened its forecast on Ukraine’s economy slowdown to 12% (from 8%) and demanded that Kiev declassify the statistics on GDP reviewed its budget, make an examination of Naftogaz and avoid any sharp decrease in interest rates. If the demands are not met, the visit of the IMF mission to Ukraine will be delayed, and the third tranche will only be sent in September, which will make bank payments on foreign debts more difficult,” said the newspaper.

The EU may lend Ukraine money to pay for Russian gas, although European officials so far have voiced reluctance to do so. Moscow is calling on the EU to share the burden of subsidizing the Ukrainian economy, arguing it was in their common interests to ensure gas transit from Russia to Europe.

Now, specific schemes of how EU can help out Ukraine are being discussed. For example, European gas companies may buy gas from Russia and store it in Ukrainian underground reservoirs. This is needed to maintain the transit during next winter, when gas consumption in Ukraine rises and, due to the technical specifications of the pipeline system, this must be done soon.

Russia has been among the parties Ukraine sees as a possible source of credit for some time. In late May, the Russian Finance Ministry said a request for $5 billion sent by Kiev last February was denied, but added the decision was not final.

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Though the Ukraine was an important part of the former Soviet Union, and is tied to Russia culturally, it is financially and politically unstable today. This could destabilise the region and even Europe.

manuel June 20, 2009, 05:01
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I am very surprised,Ukraine continues with the deficit crises barely surviving on borrowed money.If I am correct,Ukraine was one of Russian FRIENDS,that helped Georgia with radars and arms,on its war of aggression against an almost defenseless people.Ukraine Georgia and their Masters of the ZIONNATO Alliance,showed their displeasure Arrogance and contempt against what they called,Russian interference on the Georgian Nation Affairs,and all,kind more or less,threatened Russia if it was going to continue stationed in Georgia.But Apparently things have changed,not only for Ukraine,but as well Europe,that is having problems of their own.I come to the conclusion their problems are the result of their unjust Tyrannic policies, and it is time this Evil Alliance suffer the consequences.I am surprised as to why is it the Ukraine Fascist Masters that want it to join NATO,don,t pay for Ukraine gas and help them resolve their problems?It appears rather,the time has come,the ambitions of this Tyrannic ZIONNATO Alliance is threatened, by a force equal or superior to that of their own,and they simple can no longer cope,and can no longer Plunder,nor steal from others as they did before,and that is the reason they can no longer help or do things as once before.I am not surprised if soon Europe and the Master Alliance, have to face color revolutions, much different than those in the past.It is time all these allies face the consequences that are the result of their present and past actions. And Ukraine let them pay as well for the choosing of their leaders.