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BRIC will rule the world, but not that soon – former WB boss

February 08, 2010 00:19

For 40 years the US was the dominant economic power, but today China and India are emerging and there is a complete change internationally, former World Bank president James Wolfensohn told RT at Davos.

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Comments (17) Sort by: Highest rating Oldest first Newest first

Ramadurais 02.05.2010 16:50

The USA as a economic power will vanish in thin air in few weeks . This is also the case with Europe. These two economic blocks are supported by International criminals, Saudis and OPEC. In the name of global trade US$ and Euro currency is allowed to be carried as cash. The 90 % US$ and 94% of US$ 100 dollar bills are circulated internationally by drug cartels, CIA agents, facilitating sex slave trade, money laundering , Under invoicing of imports and over invoicing of exports etc. USA and europe by printing IOU's in the form of cash Euro and US$ and are enjoying the world resources with no value added work by their citizens. With electronic money transfers and ATM's every where if world governments ban the carriage of Physical currency across political borders , the US$ 880 billion which funds the international crime will flow back to US in a matter of weeks. USA currency will fall on par with Rouble in no time. All governments will get a income of 160 Billion US$ at 15 % VAT and GST in taxes since the black market will vanish. Till that time US$and Euro will remain in trade encouraging corruption and crime and will be defended as sovereign money by corrupt leaders who are main beneficiary of cash in US$ and Euro

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BBC 27.02.2010 20:08

Face it the partys over. Time for the Brits to bottle American colonial air before its all gone.

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Count Cash 10.02.2010 05:47

The India US relationship has been again one of the biggest strategic miscalculations by the US, only paralleled by the enablement of Chinese industry for a fast buck, which in the end turned out to be the tail wagging the dog, and the enablement of global terrorism to fight the Soviets, which again came back to haunt them. The US worked hard to enable India with its policy of trying to get India to balance out China. But it did not really understand that in creating a strong entity, the entity is also free to be outside your sphere of influence. India has taken the present well, and enjoyed the fast start enabled in part by the US. But the facts are that India is charting its own course. Like China, India will quite happily deal with the west, a trading relationship. It will quite happily source weaponry from anyone, including its long standing supplier Russia. The real truth is that the US thought it had India as a chess piece to play with. The reality now is that both India and China have the US as a chess piece to play with. It is not that India or China want conflict, what they want is to be left alone to decide their own futures. That is indeed what unifies all the BRIC countries. The analysis on borders and wars is all precipitated by a US thinking, that continually only exists in terms of a military analysis. However the real power stems from an economy, the BRIC economies will win through. Their principles of autonomy and free trade will win through. The US will face a choice, turn into an increasing militarized state, trying to bully the world, or go back to a thriving business economy. The former will lead to disaster for the US, as their military capabilities become increasingly countered and their costs rise. The second one is good for the US, but it dictates a realization that the US must fit into the world in a equitable way. BRIC doesn't need to be an alliance, a union, it just needs to be a precipitation of economic and balanced military strength.

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Karl 09.02.2010 17:21

The relationship of the BRIC nations is a loose one at that. It is one of trade on capitalist markets, but not of idealogy. India and China have had an existing border dispute. China's increased military relationship with Pakistan has turned off India. Indians also value the importance of religion, and have a good relationship with the Dalai Lama. While Russia and China represent the old guards of authoritarian leadership (that will fade away), while using capitalism to fund its motives; the U.S., India, and Brazil are the largest Democracies. The recent state visit by President Singh of India to the U.S. was very important. It was a visit in which India wanted to get reassurance of the U.S. relationship to India versus China. There was actually a slight downturn of U.S.-India relations after President Obama was elected; due to worries of the U.S. increasing relation with China. India's economy will exceed China in the future. Their population is on a steady rise. While China's one child policy, mostly male, and aging populace requiring benefits will strain the economy. India leads in innovation and technolgy, while China relies on Western business within its borders. Expect to see trade between the U.S. and India rise, along with joint military exercises. In March the U.S. sold 2.1 Billion worth of military equipment, the largest to date. BRIC is not the Warsaw Pact for very explicit reasons: 1st India and Brazil are democracies, while China is State Capitalist (Facism), and Russia is staggering at single party rule. 2nd it is not regionally confined. Future trade unions will develope, and I expect a future major U.S./Indian trade union. Lastly, commentators have always been quick to dismiss the future of the U.S. Facist predicted the demise of the U.S. Marxist predicted the demise of the U.S. What they failed to realize is that capitalism and democracy are very adaptable i.e. India, Brazil....China(usin g capitalism).

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pinocchio 09.02.2010 07:31

US's GDP. he said, is double that of BRIC ?! But US GDP is an accumulation of artificial values ( leverages + derivatives+ short selling + even capitalizations on projection of the insurance premiums over twenty years ! etc. etc. ). BRIC values are real! The dollars have been printed on a free wheel using the same ID notes numbers on a cangaroo hops since the 70 or so they say on Wall Street! The US dollar value is half of what it was in the 80 ( see exchange values ). This old man who never understood much on the economic front, should gently retire in Oymyakon and contemplate the infinite snow fields. Pinocchio

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Count Cash 09.02.2010 05:34

BRIC only needs to be an alliance, to accomplish a unipolar sovereign architecture, the future isn't blocks, BRIC is a stepping stone to the future. Blocks will only exist to oppose other blocks, until they break or find balance. There will be Unions e.g the EU, but they will have a sovereign presence, indeed the very fact that they are a union will provide the internal forces leading to possible block destruction. Just look at the facts, the Germans with others are already going after a European army. Also the game is totally misunderstood, if the 'we won't buy your products' is thought to be a solution to the power base moving to BRIC and then the wider world. It shows a complete misunderstanding of the numbers games and markets. There are 800 million in the 'west' the other 6 billion are elsewhere, China has 1.3 billion alone, India 1.2 billion. So just within BRIC we are talking about 2.8 billion buying the lowest cost products they can. The FOB price is the same for China wherever it goes. Yes China would love to keep the 800 million of the 'West' and it will meet the demand in a business fashion. But it is naive to think that 800 million western market can dictate the long term economic terms to China. Look at the proof, China has expanded in the downturn, why because its internal market can drive. This is showing the decoupling that is happening in economic terms.On top of this look at other facts, China is buying into the brands it needs through equity. Soon Chinese will dictate the general meetings of large western companies. The truth is that globalization which worked for short term elite financial players games, has provided the mechanism for BRIC to take power. There is no economic response, only a military one possible for the Colonial west. However, as each year goes by, that option becomes more and more impossible, with debt, adversarial strength growth.... So the writing is on the wall, the west needs to settle into its future equitable place

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Shyam Singh 09.02.2010 00:38

Can't speak on behalf of all BRIC countries, but the mood in India is upbeat. The economy may not eradicate poverty in a hurry but the standard of living is rising fast and the people are generally happy and confident, quite the opposite to the mood in America and Europe. BRIC will never be a union of any kind but a loose association. There are too many complex variables for anything like that. Britain was an Imperial power at one time and the world order changed. We are in transition for another change but the pace will be faster and less bloody. Let us face it, traditionally big and great economies are under pressure and must adapt to survive.

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bric 08.02.2010 20:45

The only way BRIC will ever amount to anything is if the United States and Europe continue to buy their products and keep their factories running. If BRIC is perceived as a threat to American and European security, they will have to stop buying products from BRIC countries. This will result in the manufacturing/econom ic bubble bursting so loud that it will be heard around the world. This will end BRIC'S high ambitions and bring the world back to reality.

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Katrina 08.02.2010 12:01

Enrique Great statistical data. Now, why naming Russia as an emerging global power is hard to say by western economic and policy analysts? Why it seemed hard for the former President of the World Bank to talk about Russia even after he was asked to comment on favorable rating of Russia’s economic forecast by PricewaterhouseCoope r in less than two months ago? Yet he had the nerve to come to a Russian television and speak with incoherent and distinctly condescending language against Russia! I cannot help but sense it is easier for the Anglo Saxon global elite to seat the global economic and military dominance to China and India than to primarily Slavic dominated Russia! Russia is still primarily part of Europe. What is at play is an old internal tribalism of the Old European prejudices against Slavs which is now superseded and reinforced by the new Anglo American agenda.

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Enrique 08.02.2010 10:48

Bill, in most indicators Russia beats Brazil without doubt: 1. If income per head of Brazil is almost twice the Chinese, Russian income per head is almost three times larger than the Chinese. 2. If Brazil has $250 billion in currency reserves, Russia has $450 billion. 3. If Brazil has a huge potential in oil and gas, Russia is already the first producer of gas (with the largest reserves) and the second producer of oil. 4. If Brazil has a massive hydroelectric potential, so Russia in Siberia. 5. Russia every year fills more patents than the UK and much more than Brazil. 6. If Brazil has an emerging Aerospace industry, Russia has a consolidated Aerospace industry, being the largest launcher of rockets and the largest exporter of fighters. 7. If Brazil has a low Debt, Russian Public Debt is half the Brazilian. 8. Besides, Russia is placed between the largest economic block (E.U.) and the largest emerging economy (China) Brazil has a larger population and neighbors are dwarfs compared to it, unless a Great Colombia of 130 million people is formed comprising Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia.... Argen tina, Chile and Uruguay have an income per head 40% higher than the Brazilian at PPP, but the whole Argentina just has a population and economy similar to the state of San Paulo (40 million people)...

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Katrina 08.02.2010 09:25

I did watch RT’s able and polite female reporter's interview with the former head of the World Bank Mr. James Wolfensohn. His assertions were mixed, some were off the marks such as when he sought to deflect predicted economic down turn of the United States. He did his very best to repeat well known mantra that Russia is too corrupt, too big, depends on natural resources and has a population crisis. he did so even though Russia has greater industrial output than any European country. it was funny to watch how he gave the U.S another 30 or 40 years to rule the world and then it will fall to just to second and third place! I would not take his predictions seriously.

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K.e 08.02.2010 07:23

Well of course that is an opinion , and a relevant one, he is not really telling a mistruth or even lying he is just conveniently leaving out countries that will have more 'independent' influence, that is to say that won't always 'do as expected' the vast monopolies that control much of the wealth are expected to praise the 'out of full control' nation? I agree with Bianca(I do often),(love your name by the way) the Inefficiency of India and it's central control compromises its independent ability to combat monopoly, and China has the ultimate form of central control, all these things the corporation likes, they will bide their time and eventually they plan to own that central power. Now Russia? what to do with Russia? the exponential potential increase in competition and middle class markets, who wants to praise that?, all terrifyingly wrapped up in an independently powerful western nation. In this Country our monopolies hardly praise competition , competition rears it's ugly head and quickly our political Muppets are told to legislate to amend it and install the appearance of competition. It works because we have stupid amounts of wealth and stupid few people to spread it to. And we are not Africa. Everyone wins except when rarity raises its head. Russia can save the world.

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raaj 08.02.2010 06:18

All this 'talk' about BRIC! give a few months..and see the members fight amongst themselves. Nothing will come out of this.

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Count Cash 08.02.2010 04:50

Of course it will, it will take time, but in the end, that is the way it is going to be, be it 20 years, 50 years or 100 years. The important thing however is not that it will happen, but how it will happen. To give an example, if you look at NATO now, knowing the inevitable situation, they are trying to lead a campaign to be a world body, to try to sit at the table of BRIC and steer its course. They know that they have two options, try to destroy BRIC or try to Hijack BRIC. indeed this is the normal western politics, of do it my way or I break things, it is the standard western behavior. They never realize the more obvious and equitable relationship of all being part of a world body on equal footing. Instead they want to come with the NATO gang and threaten and beat up any participant so that they can take control. BRIC is smarter than this, BRIC will move in its mysterious way, dealing with NATO in a practical way, until the critical mass is there to ensure a fair equitable system in this world. Then the NATO will finally be asked to behave in a normal way, or it will be isolated and excluded from the rest of the world, living on their colonial island. NATO is struggling now, being costly for citizens as a European body, when little threat exists and also having very poor fighting performance when actually asked to do something. NATO is basically over funded for what it is, so the bureaucrats look for a bigger proposition to justify their pay cheques. That proposition is to try to align with the real unstoppable trend that BRIC will in time be the dominant influence in the world, before it in turn is replaced by a full equitable world body. Basically how the UN should have been. But they say there is a tine and place for everything!

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Bianca 08.02.2010 03:32

Not quite objective analysis. For starters, the GDP of developed nations contains a great deal of paper value that is no longer valid nor real. Even though banks have managed to remove from their books an unknown amounts of destroyed wealth, by some accounting miracles that will not be reflected in GDP. It is also clear that the destroyed wealth somehow became preserved from the perspective of investors, but the loss has been rolled over to the taxpayers' balance sheets. Much is at this point unclear as to what constitutes real wealth. As for the incomes, indeed, they are much higher in US and Europe. It has become troublesome to try to figure out what that income actually buys. Keeping the roof over head, rental or ownership takes now up to 50% of average income. With the tax system destroying the middle class and the elderly savings, it remains to be seen what will happen to the GDP. It is also unclear how will India reach this status, when --- in spite of good earnings --- it has much higher problem with the poverty and the disaffected multi-cultural population. Corruption is much higher then in Russia, and the atrophied judicial system and the state bureaucracy are very, very inefficient. I have no doubt that India's future is bright, and the I for India shines proudly in BRIC, but I am concerned that the levels of flattery as shown by the former WB Boss are not genuine and are driven more by the Administration's agenda towards India, then realistic economic assessment. As for Russia, no problem with the criticism. As always, West is very obliging when it comes to telling Russia what is it that they "have to understand". But keep in mind the fringe benefits of such assessment. The most effective prayer ever invented applies here: "God Bless My Enemies, for They Have Confessed My Sins for Me".

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Bill Simpson 08.02.2010 02:08

Of all the BRICs, Brazil has the greatest potential to improve the living standard of its' population. It has a continuous growing season, massive hydroelectric potential, oil and gas, a large land area, no energy wasting & damaging winter climate, vast mineral deposits, access to the ocean, low population density, and none of its' neighbors can ever threaten its militarily because it is far larger and more developed than the other countries in South America. It has the potential to become a very nice place to live for the majority of the population. This should be the Brazilian century. If you were forced to move, where would you go?

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cska 08.02.2010 01:47

What? China, in PPP GDP, by itself has half the economy of the U.S. Add in Brazil, India, and Russia, and you get a combined economic power equal to the United States.

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