Devyatov contradicts himself because he says at the same time that there cannnot be a Sino-American War and also that China wants Russia as its rear base for a Sino-American comfrontation. Russia is still ahead of China in a number of weapons even if the Chinese are improving well their arsenal, so Russia is not a junior player. From aircraft to space, and from nuclear weapons to missiles, Russia is still ahead of China. At least for now. About population, the demographic relation between Heilongjiang (China) and the Far East (Russia) is similar to that between the U.S. and Canada. As Russia´s population is concentrated in the border area with China, the population in the border in fact is similar (about 6 million people in each side) In fact, Chinese population in the Russian Far East is very low compared to Mexican population in the American West (36% of the population in California, Texas and New Mexico is Mexican) The immigration of half a million Chinese to the Russian Far East wouldn´t be any problem. Of course, the European (Russian, Ukrainian) population shouldn´t fall more, and if possible increase too. Russia´s $450 bn. currency reserves also cannot be dismissed And Russia´s income per head of $15,000, even if a third of America´s ($45,000) is twice China´s ($7,000) at PPP.

Really good article. I agree that there cannot be a hot war between the US and China (it would mean nuclear war/winter/fallout), but I think that China is becoming aggressive with its stealing of technology and manipulation of the yuan. This isn't restricted towards the US either; China has stolen dozens of Russian military plans, including jet fighter engines and designs.

"The United States has been quite successful in playing the Chinese card against Russia. Its crude propaganda and subtle diplomacy contain a modicum of truth, and truth, if not covered with flattery and hypocrisy, is always bitter. The United States is distracting the authorities, business and public opinion in Russia from the essence of US-Chinese relations, i.e. “global comprehensive positive cooperation,” which the United States calls the G2. As a result, Russia is seriously thinking of expanding its cooperation with NATO." This is very bad idea!The idea that Russia must move toward U.S dominated NATO and Europe at the expense of Russia’s close relationship with China is not credible. As for the U.S attacking Iran, I think it will be a catastrophic event and there is no way of telling how this war, if undertaken, may unfold. However, do I sense that Russia is on board if the U.S decides to attack Iran? Again, it is pertinent to stress that the Chinese have so much respect for Russia. There is no evidence for a potential future Chinese encroachment to Russian territory. Russia’s greatest global security lies with being friendly with Europe and working closely with China. The U.S's aim is to decouple China from Russia. This strategy is very bad for both Russia and China

Some of the points Devyatov brings up are true, but I find that he tends to oversimplify countries' motivations and political processes that take place. Also, perhaps his intention is to sound impartial, but instead, his tone comes out cynical - never a good thing.

Three points: 1) China is not interested in participating in any hot wars. The CCP knows all too well that entanglement in any armed confrontations will only throw China off its tack of economic development and bring the country down. Even on the matter of Taiwan, despite all the rhetorics from the government, there is no real plan for military action because the US is almost guaranteed to get involved. 2) I thought Medvedev just opened a new gas pipeline on his trip to China this week. 3) For most of the technologies that China has "stolen", it would be happy to purchase them instead. Most of the technologies that China is interested in are embragoed by the US from been sold to China in the name of national interest. So China "stole" them not out of stinginess but because that's the only means of acquiring them.

Didn't the USA decouple the USSR from China during the Cold War? So this is the same old policy. And in line with that old policy the USA has to make Russia an offer it can't refuse. Not a Godfather threat but a very very large bribe. And if the offer is sufficiently attractive (joint security ,autonomy, transfer of technologies , etc , etc) the Russian elites will certainly take it. So they should if they are offered a genuine alliance(political,social, economic ) not just a mechanism for joining their fate to a fading Imperial power. As for the hot war with China. It certainly won't be initiated by China while the chances of its elites surviving such a war are zero. Who knows what the position will be in 2050.

This is a very good report but we are still not looking deep enough. Please consider, at least for a moment, that the Chinese are not playing the same 'game' as the US, or any of the traditional 'games' played by the old colonial powers. Please consider also that the Chinese are much more astute and much more capable than even 'experts' often give them credit for. Finally, please consider that China are looking not at the current 'world order', but that of 50+ years from now (a long timeframe for new powers such as the US but less than the blink of an eye for an ancient power like China). The 'game' that China is playing is in fact a very, very long one. It is also a game which is being played at a level way above the likes of the old colonial powers, and the new colonial power the US, have ever played at. This is why it is often so difficult to get a 'handle' on China - they do not fit existing models neatly. China is not yet ready to show thier 'hand', indeed it will still be a decade or more before they are ready. The next few years or even decades will be testing times - literally, as China consolidates its gains and prepares the ground for its next moves, whilst all the time being challenged - by attempts at containment and other provocations- to show their hand early. The US have clearly been out flanked by China in several areas, indeed the US has barely begun to even realise that whilst they thought they were taking advantage of China, the exact opposite was actually happening. When the Chinese do decide to reveal their hand so to speak, it will be at a time of their choosing, and by then there will be nothing that the US, Russia, or the europeans can do about it.

I strongly recommend reading M.K.. Bhadrakumar in Friday edition of Asia Times Online. To quote: "This brings us to the threshold of a tantalizing prospect: is the great game over Caspian oil withering away? How relevant are US-Russia energy rivalries with the appearance of China in the equation as an energy guzzler that can keep buying all that Russia can supply? This is a new ball game, so to speak, where from the US angle the great game is no longer about driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe. Instead, it will be about offering incentives to Russia to hold it back from diversifying away from Western energy markets towards China." Predictably, the standard "keep the fear alive" or "why should Russia be afraid of China" will start appear more consistently in Russia's media. Similarly, this kind of campaign is working in India as well. To quote President Medvedev: ""Friendship with China is Russia's strategic choice, it's a choice that was sealed by blood years ago. The friendship between the Russian and Chinese peoples, cemented by the military events, will be indestructible and will do good for our future generations." Or President Hu Jintao: ""China and Russia will maintain international peace and stability and promote the overall recovery, health and stable development of the world economy. It is China's unswerving policy to constantly consolidate and enhance its strategic partnership of cooperation with Russia." Geopolitica implications are fairly obvious. But what is still not clear to Europe is the objective by China and Russia to maintain good relationships with US. How much will it be in US interests to protect the interests in Europe over and above its own --- is for Europe to ponder.