­Russia and China vetoed UNSC resolution on Syria, and the whole situation started to escalate. I have already explained the reasons why Moscow was so resolute in rejecting increased pressure on the Assad regime. Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Damascus was conducted to tell Bashar Assad that Russia has done its best to protect Syria and not to allow a one-sided biased approach. But it was all we could do. Now the ball is in your court. Consider what you can do in order to quickly change picture spreading worldwide and poisoning international attitude towards Syria.

Assad replied by promising dialog with the opposition, a referendum on a new constitution, political reforms etc. Had he started those measures three months ago the situation could have been improved. Is it too late now?

Most likely – yes. Based on what we know from the Libyan experience one can expect the following scenario. Arab countries start to massively provide the Syrian opposition with arms. The West joins those efforts. Then a campaign will be launched to de-legitimize the Assad regime. The first step will be taken by, for example, Qatar or some other Arab state, which will recognize the so-called “Free Syrian Army” as a legitimate government. That will mean that UNSC sanction will not be necessary, it will be enough to respond to this “government’s” demand for assistance. Arabian Gulf states continue to send weapons to the opposition. The West contributes with moral and material support, while continuing pressure on Damascus and information campaign against Assad.

A significant part of population, experts say roughly more than 50 per cent, is still inclined to support the current regime, because they fear (especially minorities) any alternative, so civil war keeps escalating. The situation is different from Libya, because unlike Gaddafi, Assad is not fully isolated. Among Syria’s neighbors only Turkey is resolutely against it. Iran will stick to endorsement of the Assad regime till the end. Iraq, which is under significant Iranian influence, keeps silent and refuses to support anti-Syrian activities. Lebanon takes the same stance. The Shia Hezbollah movement, old ally of Damascus, prevents Beirut from being active against Syria. Jordan is on the Saudi Arabian side, but rather passive, abstaining from blocking moves. Paradoxically, even Israel, arch-enemy of Bashar Assad is extremely cautious when it comes to analysis of Syrian situation. From an Israeli point of view, a predictable enemy whom you know well and who is ready to accept certain rules of the game is much more preferable to chaotic development which can empower radical Islamic fanatics along Israeli borders.

All this shows that linear development of a Libyan style is unlikely in Syria. Direct military intervention is possible, but not by NATO and the US, rather by Turkey or combined Arab forces. It will not be easy and contains risks to finally put the situation in complete unpredictability. The prospects for Assad to survive after all this turmoil are not bright. The Russian initiative gives him a certain hope, but he must act quickly and smartly, and understand international reality. Time is running out. His failure will not only mean his own collapse, but most likely even the end of current Syria.

­ Fyodor Lukyanov, for RT

­The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.