“The opposition sees the precedent, in which Bakiyev came to power on the crest of a revolution, and so they are then thinking: why can’t we do the same? The problem is that Bakiyev was not an established opposition leader when he overthrew Akayev. He was part of a big coalition and was seen as a compromise figure, and got this post only because of his previous status as Akayev’s Prime Minister. But, as often happens, the coalition then fell apart and he became an authoritative leader, but yet not strong enough to control the country. That’s why the situation there is unstable and there is a crisis,” claims Aleksey Makarkin.

Makarkin also thinks, the question whether the current president will be able to retain power is not really important, because if Bakiyev loses now, then a similar weak leader will come, since, he believes, there is currently no strong and charismatic leader in the opposition that can hold power: “The coalition will nominate a leader, then this leader will try to become an authoritative one, then the opposition will be unhappy, accuse him of a lack of democracy, and everything will begin all over again.”

In case Bakiyev is able to remain in his post, then, in Makarkin’s view, he still will not be able to “tighten the screws.” And, he maintains, it is then inevitable that new unrest will follow sooner or later. Thus, he concludes, in both scenarios the situation will remain unstable until a really strong leader comes.

However, he thinks, whoever comes to power in Kyrgyzstan, relations with Russia will remain the same and they will be very cautious in their external policies. “After the revolution when Akayev was overthrown, many Western analysts were saying that Kyrgyzstan was turning its back to Russia and would be the next Ukraine and Georgia. However, the exact opposite has happened. Bakiyev has continued Akayev’s policy towards Russia. So I think whoever comes, the country will try to balance between Russia, China and the West.”

Makarkin does not think, however, that the international community will interfere, even if the current conflict drags on, because nobody wants to be a mediator in this conflict and that includes Russia. He says that it is not in Russia’s interests to be involved in the situation, because whatever the outcome the mediator will be the one to take the blame.