Published: 16 March, 2009, 15:08
Edited: 16 March, 2009, 15:08
The turmoil in the world seems like it is getting more complex everyday. A lot of things are happening, and somehow nothing is really getting resolved. It looks like most countries are just trying to keep the status quo, just so the situation in their country does not deteriorate further. Some have been taking advantage of this – from investors buying at really low prices, to Islamists getting stronger footholds in Northeastern Pakistan.
The international scene is also bustling with intrigues and uneasiness. In addition to the stress from the economic strains, there are some people that are really concerned with war. There are a few possible flashpoints that are considered most likely – Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea. However, it is highly unlikely for any of these conflicts to happen in the next few years.
An open conflict with Iran is not something that is likely to happen. Although there is a lot of talk from US stating that it will employ force if necessary, that scenario will not be played out any time in the near future. Iran knows that if it is attacked or if it engages in a war, its economy and government will be badly shaken. The instability is not something that the Iranian government wants and even more so, it does not want to lose the current government style.
If Tehran engages in an open conflict with US or Israel (the two most likely candidates), the damage done to Iran will be so devastating that even if it does fight back the invading forces it will take years, if not decades, to recover. Iran has recently built up a nice base of an educated workforce. According to Nationmaster’s statistics, Iran has 79.4% literacy rate of its total population and an 85.6% literacy rate among males. Risking their intellectual to fighting that is by and large pointless and would be economic suicide.
Iran also has had a fairly constant healthy economic growth. In 2007 alone, real GDP growth rate was 6.2%. The controversy around Iran’s nuclear enrichment program has recently even been dispelled by the US intelligence community. It makes more sense for Iran to maintain on its path to becoming the center of the Muslim world, rather than fighting the Americans and Israelis and risking destruction of what they have accomplished in the last 20 years of peace.
Pakistan is becoming a concern to the world community for it harbors Al-Qaeda terrorists and Islamic radicals are gaining a firmer foot hold in the country. The instability has been made evident recently in Islamabad’s inability to protect a Sri Lankan team from being shot at while on their way to play cricket on Pakistani soil, the only country to agree to do so. In addition, news from the Swat Valley are not something that most likely made a lot of countries happy, when news came out of Taliban making peace arrangements with the government, which basically stated that the radical Islamists have a firm foothold in the province and the Pakistanis have nothing to gain if they remain in Swat.
Even though Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and radical Islam is on the rise. Actions will not escalate beyond US military conducting drone attacks along the border regions of Pakistan. A full scale military assault will bog down the US forces and cause more bad than good. More than likely precautions have been taken to keep the Islamists from getting hold of nuclear weapons in case they truly pose a threat. That precaution probably does not involve a military invasion, but rather huge advisory and financial help to the Pakistani government. Considering that Washington and Islamabad were good buddies throughout the 1980’s when the Soviets were in Afghanistan, US intelligence likely knows everything there is to know about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, its locations, and capabilities.
Nearly everything that is said concerning North Korea seems like it rubs Pyongyang the wrong way. Even when talked to on the same level, it looks like North Koreans are preset to be antagonistic. Recently, Pyongyang has made it look like it presents a threat to Japan and US when it tested some missiles and stated that it cannot guarantee the safety of international flights flying in its airspace. The latter statement was made with regard to joint US and Japanese military exercises, which North Korea says are threatening to their security.
North Korea has been secluded from the world ever since the armistice was signed in 1953. Recently it has been taken off the terrorist watch list. Nevertheless, Pyongyang got irritated again when Hillary Clinton met with victims of North Korean kidnappings in Japan, and then again before US-Japanese exercises. Now, the secluded Korean nation is launching a satellite that is sparking international attention. Although this would imply that North Korea is able to launch things into space and has the technology to make ballistic missiles, it would be a move of self destruction to actually have a war. North Korea would not be able to sustain a continuous war effort and the elite that run the country knows that it will be ousted and most likely killed. In addition, unlike the Korean War in the early 1950’s, it will not have strong allies like the Soviet Union or China supporting its efforts.
The economic crisis has hit home hard. The world’s leading economies are weakened and people are disgruntled. Some international tensions are becoming more and more strained. Still, conflicts are not likely happen in the countries that are considered of utmost threat to peace – Iran, Pakistan, North Korea. Iran has too much at stake to risk an open war. Pakistan is pretty well covered by the US and is most likely heavily flooded with intelligence agents keeping an eye on the situation. North Korea just wants to remind the world that it still exists. So over all, the threats are pretty well checked. Most countries have their domestic welfare to look after rather than pledge their forces to war efforts that do not immediately threaten their national security.