“US withdrawal from Afghanistan won’t cause more chaos”
Published: 08 October, 2009, 00:08
Edited: 27 October, 2009, 05:31
TAGS: Anniversary, Military, Middle East, Politics, USA
The pullout of US troops from Afghanistan won’t worsen the deterioration of the situation in the war-torn country, believes Malou Innocent from the Washington-based Cato Institute.
“I think that essentially what will happen afterwards is it might look similar to what it did after the Soviets pulled out in the late 1980s and the early 1990s – sort of an eventual devolution of insurgent groups in fighting a sort of civil war,” Innocent told RT.
“But I don’t think it will look too much different from what we see today. A lot of the chaos and the catastrophe and the bloodshed that we see is with a hundred thousand US and NATO troops there. So I don’t think we can eventually see any sort of greater chaos than we do now.”
07.10.2009, 22:57
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Finally, the first down to earth analysis. No, the world will not come to an end if all foreign troups leave. Afghanistan is not quite as bad now as it was at the time of Soviet troop withdrawals. Todays central government in Kabul does have alliances among the former Norhtern Alliance, but also solid Pashtun representation. The problem is, there are at least three kinds of "Taliban". The Taliban that came out of Pakistani Madrasas to take over Afghanistan is a non entity. But the new Taliban, the creation of Pakistani secret services, is the real force in Afghanistan's south. Then, there is a "Taliban" in the formerly autonomous frontier regions, again Pakistani creation. Pakistan is poised this way to keep the influence in the formerly independent tribal areas, as well as Afghani south. It is conceivable that Afghanistan may end up being split up between the Kabul bound Pastun tribes, and those that will be drawn into Pakistan. That in the end, may give Afghanistan a more northern orientation, and better relations with the Central Asian states. The absence of Taliban (either variety) threat, would be the real benefit to the region. But all of this has to happen, and without foreign meddling. The idea that foreign troops need to stay to fight against the population (counterinsurgency) is the habit of occupation. Occupying powers always imagine themselves to be so important, and have these important nation building tasks, that they cannot be bothered by the annoying people and their desire to be free. So by the time they finish nation building, there won't be much nation left to use it!












Agreed!