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“Russians are making a tactical mistake” – US expert

Published: 30 December, 2009, 01:09
Edited: 17 September, 2010, 22:55


The final flight stage of a ballistic nuclear missile

The change Barack Obama proposed for the ABM systems in Europe is much more tailored for the Middle Eastern missile threat, says policy analyst Ivan Oelrich, the president of the American Federation of Scientists.

 
13 COMMENTS
Sarah December 30, 2009, 00:05 quote
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If this Star wars are "tailored" to meet threats from the ME-read Iran- then place them in the ME and not in Europe. “The whole ballistic missile defence system project is a legacy of the Reagan era, said Oelrich, and it is nearly impossible to scrap it for political reasons because it is very dear to conservatives in the Senate.” And why should local political dynamics of the United States be of concern to Russia? “It would be impossible to ratify a new START treaty and forget about the missile defence at the same time, Oelrich predicted” I do agree. Neither Russia nor the United States can forget Star Wars. Hence, Star wars must be figured into the START Treaty. Ivan Oelrich came to the conclusion that “the real and only danger here is that the [US missile defence] system would only work against the Russian attack if it were done with the remnants of the Russian nuclear attack after a first strike by the United States. Is the author saying the real problem is if Russian can fire back in retaliatory strike after U.S first strikes Russia and the best way to deal with this to remove signal of Star Wars as pointed at Russia! Mind you, I am using basic English and have no training in this military stuff! “What the United States and Russia have to do is to make such attacks impossible by taking the weapons off their alert – that would solve the problem.” Much easier proposition and more logical is to get rid of this stupid and annoying weapons system. Period. But this is not going to happen because the U.S wants to retain first strike capability without possibility of retaliatory strike from Russia. This was the original project of Reagan and this is why this is ideologically charged topic.

Bill Simpson December 30, 2009, 02:09 quote
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The American anti-missile system is an expensive jobs program for defense contractors who contribute millions of dollars to Washington politicians. Many engineering studies have shown that there is no possible reliable defense against ballistic missiles. Even one missile is very difficult to shoot down in carefully designed tests. The Russian missile force is far too large, sophisticated, and mobile for any American sneak attack to be successful. And imagine trying to keep that attack plan secret! Might word leak out to CNN from someone not in total agreement with having their family incinerated? In case no one has noticed, American political and military leaders live very comfortable lives. What motive would they have to trade that lifestyle for living in an underground bunker in a radioactive wasteland? There would certainly be a shortage of young women down there. Although we know that few American politicians ever stray from the straight and narrow. Anyone who really believes that the USA would attack Russia, and risk having even one American city obliterated, has been watching 'Dr. Strangelove' way too much. Oh, and Russia just happens to be one of the largest oil exporters. Cutting off our own oil supply sounds like a brilliant plan to me. That would really help the poor US economy.

Sarah December 30, 2009, 02:52 quote
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Bill Simpson What why all these sociological campaign? Americans military has shown to be capable of the most foolish and dangerous things such as attacking Iraq and dropping cruise missiles on unsuspecting people in the middle of the night. So why Russia must know or be concerned with the procurement industry in the U.S or their close linked to elected officials. This is really funny- but I do not see why the Russian how to deal with the psychological and local political economy of Star Wars. For the Russians, their job is to make sure the doctrine of mutually destruction is valid and for this to work- the Star War technology must go.

Sarah December 30, 2009, 14:11 quote
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I want to understand Dr. Ivan Oelrich’s comment and what it really meant so I watched to RT video of the original interview. I've picked up two additional key points and received much clarity on third. The first point he made is that Star Wars is near and dear to Conservative ideologues- and since to kill this project would requires 2/3 of Senate majority vote- Obama cannot legally kill this project-so Russia must live with Star Wars-because- as a matter of tautology-because Star Wars is near and dear to the hearts of Conservatives. But there is a caveat and here is my second point: he want to bring science-which apparently Russia will listen- ut conservative senators would neither listen or understand –but Russia will listen to this logical and accept the sociological rationale to why the U.S must keep Star Wars missile defense shield system. Russia should relax because Star wars does not work. But wait: the U.S does not only wait to keep Star Wars in Europe- this time the rationale being the system would be ‘tailor made’ to meet threats from the ME [which means the system works] but in addition the U.S will also maintain its Star Wars program in Alaska and in California! But since the Star facilities in California and Alaska cannot be claimed to be directed at some imaginary ME rogue states- the way to ocercome Russia’s resistance is the U.S to turn off Star early warning signals of Star Wars so that if the U.S first Strikes against Russia, Russia would be able to strike back with a retaliatory counter-struck! Now, how reasonable is this scenario from sound strategic military point of view point? Not credible at all. In fact, it is very sad and bad plan. I can now see why Putin responded with a new offensive weapon systems.

Kihnu December 30, 2009, 16:53 quote
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This American missiles for Europe campaign has very little or nothing to do with defending Europe. The primary purpose is in line with the American military advancement right up to the borders of the Russian Federation. Such a tactic is really quite clever for the Americans. It allows them to manipulate the countries in which the military bases are located, and they can cause mischief in the Federation itself. The secondary purpose for putting missiles into Europe is to reap fabulous profits for the contractors. Whether the missiles system works or not is really irrelevant since their success has little or nothing to do with their installation into Europe.

hexxor December 30, 2009, 23:10 quote
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The Russians are not stupid. Throughout the development of the s-300 towards s-400 and future systems have shown that an antiballistic system is credible and it works already in a smaller scale. The next generation of the S-400 is only a step away. Both the USA,Russia and China have been able to destroy satellites from space using missiles. Don't be fooled that Star Wars is impossible, science have shown that such systems are possible. The possibilities are possible if the will is there. It is only a matter of will and determination to create an ABM system.

Sarah December 31, 2009, 02:57 quote
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Hexxor if Star Wars are such a losing and insignificant weapons why is the United States is not willing to get rid of them rather then compromising potential with Russia on a new START treat?. I do not think that Russians are stupid. That is why they are turning the heat on the U.S by proposing new offensive arms weapons program in order to counter Star Wars. I think it is strange the U.S pundits are referring to the science of Star Wars as though the Russians do not already know whar the facts of this technology are. The easiest and the most logical step forward is for the U.S to cancel this annoying technology and sign a lasting nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russian. I do no think that Russians are going to sign arms reduction treaty until the U.S completely cancels the Star War program. I think the Russians made a new counter move and now it will be the U.S' turn to make the next move. I had to read this expert’s short interview five times to get what are the sticking points and the its is clear to me that the U.S must get rid of Star Wars for this deal to work. I think that U.S experts should stop their silly references to conservative sentimental attachment to Star Wars because this lame excuse will not work with the Russians.

Nuta December 31, 2009, 22:43 quote
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Call it STAR WARS and anything else you want, but it would be stupid for anyone to think this program is a failure and it will never work. Technological advancements happen everyday and if this system is not working now, it will work one day and should never be ignored. Make no mistake, Russia’s top leadership are aware of this and certainly do not believe this is a BS system that will never work, if they did they would not press the US to get rid of it all together. Russia does not currently have the technology to penetrate this system; if they did they would not have gone to France to purchase a state of the art warship. Which the number one reason why Russia is not happy with the AMD.

noyes January 02, 2010, 07:05 quote
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It will not be a good thing for Russia or the Russian people if Russia spends a crazy amount of money on military hardware just to match other countries. It would be far better to spend the money on farm machinery and the poor. That will pay off in the future. Massive military hardware and big parades could put Russia on the wrong path and result in a propensity for leaders to use the hardware against other countries, to justify having it on hand {MILITARY/INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX}.

elk January 02, 2010, 07:23 quote
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All politicians like expensive new toys {weapons} because of the special interest lobby. More, bigger, faster, agile, stelth etc. is the order of the day. There is just never enough to satisfy office holders and their handlers.

Sarah January 02, 2010, 18:42 quote
-1

noyes Defense is the most important topic for any country and I cannot see why Russia is any different. Russia seems to be getting lot of conflicting messages on this: Russia had been advised that it should not develop counter measures to the U.S Star wars because, supposedly the Star Wars technology is fake- not accurate, semi accurate, incomplete. Some are now telling Russia to make more farm equipments-even when the U.S continue to push NATO and Star Wars right to Russia’s border- and when the U.S spends more in defense than the entire world!Do you think Russians cannot see glaring gap between their investment in defense and the U.S investment in defense? Imagine if Iraq had the right weapons to defend itself in 2003----? Alas.

sj January 16, 2010, 11:22 quote
-1

Folks US expert,policy analyst Ivan Oelrich, the president of the American Federation of Scientists.-- is telling Russian leadership and citizens something very important! --“Russians are making a tactical mistake”-"real and only danger here is that the [US missile defence] system would only work against the Russian attack if it were done with the remnants of the Russian nuclear attack "afte" "a first strike by the United States".-U--S stated policy towards RF,world is: "First Strike" so RF would not be able to get off a RETALIATION! ----the American Federation of Scientists is made up of nuke scientist who work on how to ELIMINATE RUSSIA, AND OTHERS THAT HAVE OIL,GAS,MINERALS, NATURAL ASSETS, LIKE LARGEST "FRESHWATER" LAKE -DRINKABLE WATER SUPPLY IN WORLD,WHICH IS WHAT THE NEXT WARS WILL BE FOUGHT OVER!. US TRACK RECORD-TAKE WHAT YOU WANT BY FORCE-OCCUPY WHAT YOU WANT. - RUSSIA?!! JOKE IN US: WHAT IS SAUDIS OIL DOING UNDER OUR SAND? NUKE MULTI HEADED- MISSILES IN KALINIGRAD [SP] - S-500'S LOTS OF BOTH NEXT TO RUSSIAN HATER POLAND, POINTED AT US,-THEIR ALLIES!

Meslin May 02, 2010, 15:52 quote
-1

Poor Nuta What do you think that useless French war-ship will bring to Russia' s defense. Absolutely NOTHING ! France is broke and desperately needs money. That is all...The future of mankind require a complete boycott of everything being NATO-American made, to wake-up the silent US-Europe's majority and make her clean-up, once and for all the planetary mess made by just a few thousands greedy creeps (not all US citizen) protected by a huge military machine and representing less than 10% of Humanity. Then, pragmatic as they are, after getting ride of those crooks, America will become a decent nation and participate in resolving the many challenges to which mankind is confronted. To start on this road an harmonious BRIC union is imperative. As far as I can see, the main Russian mistake is: not confronting the facts and explaining the sad realities to the whole Humanity. Sweet talking with the "uncle Tom" N-PiPO Obama will lead nowhere...Just wait and see ! Sorry Future Generations ! JCM

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