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“Too early to speak about turning point” in US-Russia relations
Published: 17 September, 2009, 15:54
Edited: 04 December, 2009, 11:13
The US decision to shelve AMD shield plans in Europe is “a very positive step... but we have to wait and see what happens next,” said Aleksandr Pikaev of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
What turning point? The US - Russia relationship is by far more complex then the East European irritant. But many, even more dangerous, remain. The more dangerous, the less anybody talks about it. The Caspian game is turning into a nighmare for US and allies. The full-court press to make Europe stall Russia's gas infrastructure to Europe, has resulted in much of the gas from the potential suppliers, such as Kazahstan and Turkmenistan, go East, to China. It was fully expected that if US and EU keep their poker face, and stay firm in their blocking every Russian investment in gas infrastructure, that the result will be an ultimate "seeing the light" by Turkmenistan and Kazahstan, and the quick sign-up to NABUCCO. There are polite noises, and imagined "green shoots", but it did not happen. Russia has scaled back the purchases that were intended to go to Europe, but the collossal fields of Kazahstan, and the equally monstrously big fields of Turkmenistan, have new buyers. Add to that Turkey's insistence on being trated as a partner, not just a transit country with no rights to guaranteed quantities of gas, and you have a mess. Add to that the Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan territorial issues in Caspian, and here we are. NABUCCO has just announced a two year delay. The problem for Russia is as follows. The chaos in Afghanistan is not a coincidence. The Tajik Abdullah Abdullah, did not run to win, but to spoil. There was no way on planet that he could have won over a Pastun, Karzai. But now, his Tajik tribes are "agreeved", and US will be bringing "consolation" presents. Much of the trouble is already spilling over to Tajikistan. Ditto Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Now, if NABUCCO cannot have it, why not spoil the route to China. US is like a general loosing a battle, and thinks that the way to win is ---- to open another front! Europe is not amused. O, Obama, Obama.
When US General Wesley Clark issued orders to shoot the Russian soldiers helping NATO with peace efforts in the Balkans in 1999 . When NATO bombed Serbia and reneged on the peace agreement with Serbia . The agreement that Yeltsin had won for NATO by promising Milosevic that Russian troops will protect the Serb Christians in Kosovo . When United States and NATO did all this as the worlds only super stupid power . These deeds finished Yeltsin and his new liberal democracy in Russia . Russia was about bankrupt but they found a good no nonsense leader and went on a fast track armament program . Russia now manufactures arms and sell all over the world , almost as much as the United States , good high class weapons and planes , maybe some of the best in the world . Russia felt United States had every intentions to do to Russia what we did to Yugoslavia . I believe the Russians probably were right as NATO has tried to build air bases all around Russia . And backed little revolutions all around and even in Russia itself . After Putin left office he left the new leader Dimitry Medvedev strong enough so that He told NATO to come to Georgia if you want to fight with Russia . It seems nobody wanted to come . United States and NATO complained a lot when the old bear growled. in Georgia . Obama talks a little better and he might even be able to smooth things out , United States England and Germany have all three been begging for a sharp bear slap in the face . Now the United States announced they now have a policy for first strike attacks . This is another very stupid announcement policy of the United States . I hope Obama gets that straightened out quickly with Russia . In 2006 the Germans smarted off to Putin and recognized Kosovo . They told Putin so what are you going to do about it . Putin told them he was going home to Russia and realgn plenty of missiles for Germany .
There is no turning point, there never is, just a gradual improving or degrading of relations. Just like there is an improving or reducing level of trade. Russia US relations are over hyped, we really just need avoid anhilating each other, avoid smaller states using us in confrontational mode, and then just get on with our lives; in I hope an ever increasing cooperative manner. The US is undergoing big change, the finances are in a mess, the military escapades are in a mess. The government is trying to regain control, the security services and bankers are still trying to run things. Who knows what will come of all this, and to be truthful, the world is a mighty big place, so don't expect us to hold our breaths waiting for a turning point. We wll just continue developing all bilateral relationships in parallel. We ain't holding, other developments, waiting for the turning point. We just move on up!