The actual 'war' in Afghanistan is lost, or at least is a stalemate and Obama knows this. The operation is now at a tipping point, hastened by NATO reluctance to send more / replace existing troops. Faced with the politicaly suicidal non option of withdrawl, does Obama decide that this is now a 'ground holding' operation to maintain the tactical foothold they have?, or is it a 'nation building' operation?, or is Afghanistan important for another reason? (I don't buy the Al Quida nonsence so think oil, gas, Pakistan or even Russian and Iranian containment etc). It is certainly not a military campaign anymore, it has been reduced to the classic Afghan conflict of occupier against mujahadeen. Does Obama try to follow the failed examples of the British empire and the Soviets?, or try something new?. By the way, the US and British (and some other nato forces) are now actively involved in paying the warlords (yes they are all still there) to provide 'security' services to convoys, supply roads, and forward bases. This is a sure sign that things on a slippery slope. A wise man once wrote that empires are lost in Afghanistan............................