Satellite images have revealed that Ethiopia has moved to a new phase of the highly divisive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the river Nile, despite strong protests from Egypt and Sudan.
The dam is located on the Blue Nile River, which is the source of 97% of Egypt’s water. The infrastructure has been at the center of a dispute over its impact on downstream flows into Egypt and Sudan, both of which have expressed concern about the project.
The eastern drainage gate has been opened to its full capacity in anticipation of the fifth filling of the GERD, according to satellite images shared by Cairo University professor Abbas Sharaki on Wednesday.
The images, which were published on Facebook, were taken on Tuesday evening and showed the continued crossing of water over the dam’s middle corridor.
“The water will stop over the next week,” wrote Sharaki, who is a professor of geology and water resources. He added that as the middle section dries, concrete work will begin “to increase the height of the dam side and the middle corridor.”
Sharaki noted that Ethiopia had made a similar move in January 2023 in anticipation of the fourth filling of the dam, but has now started the latest process around three months earlier than planned.
Ethiopia has unilaterally completed four filing phases of the infrastructure and has operated two turbines over the past three years, despite not reaching agreement with downstream countries.
Sharaki argued that the fifth storage, like the previous ones, infringes on the GERD Declaration of Principles signed between the three countries in March 2015, the Presidential Statement of the Security Council of September 2021, and international standards regarding projects on shared rivers.
According to the Egyptian Ministry of Water and Irrigation, the GERD tripartite ministerial meeting held in Ethiopia on September 23 and 24 failed to make significant progress. The ministry further accused Ethiopia of backing away from the previous consensus reached between the three countries.
The first round of negotiations between the nations failed in April 2021, although the three parties said they still hoped to reach an agreement by the end of that year.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has insisted that his country is seeking to address its electricity needs while reducing any concerns in Sudan and Egypt.
Ethiopia has also accused Egypt of taking unilateral decisions in disputes over the Nile. According to a letter from February 2022, Addis Ababa alleged that Cairo was pursuing water projects without consulting upstream countries.
The Asyut Barrage Project, the ‘New Delta’ National Project, the Ahmed Hamdi Tunnel 2, and other plans could “potentially reduce the flow of the Nile through its [Ethiopian]territory, jeopardizing future plans such as the GERD,” Ethiopian News reported on X (formerly Twitter).