India’s wheat exports could quadruple to an 8-year high amid global price surge

Exports of wheat by the world’s second biggest producer, India, are expected to hit record volumes this year as a spike in global prices and higher freight costs make Indian grain lucrative for Asian buyers.

The nation’s wheat exports could rise to 4.2 million tons this year, which is the highest since 2013, Nitin Gupta, Vice President at Olam Agro India, told Reuters. “There is good demand for Indian wheat for human consumption and feed purpose as well,” he said.

According to an unnamed Mumbai-based grain dealer with a global trading firm, who also spoke to Reuters, exports could reach 4.4 million tons in 2021.

Data from the trade ministry showed that in the first eight months of this year, India’s exports skyrocketed 887% from a year ago to 3.07 million tons. That was due to strong demand from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Nepal and the United Arab Emirates.

The country harvested a record 109.52 million tons of wheat in 2021 and state-run agencies are holding a record 51.8 million tons.

According to the Mumbai-based dealer, Asian buyers save $10 to $15 on freight when they buy from India rather than Russia or Ukraine.

Gupta said that a surge in exports has lifted Indian prices to $305 per ton on a free-on-board basis, compared to $260 three months back. “Even after the price rise Indian wheat is cheaper. Until mid-2022 exports would continue at the current pace,” he said.

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