OPEC lifts global oil demand forecast

Global oil demand will continue to rise in the medium and longer term even as the world moves to renewable energy, and the industry will require trillions of dollars in investment to meet the demand, OPEC said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook issued this week.

According to OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais, “the overall investment number for the oil sector is $12.1 trillion out to 2045,” which is higher than last year’s assessment.

The report says global oil demand will reach 103 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is 2.7 million bpd higher than in 2022. The total demand for the next year is up 1.4 million bpd from what the group predicted for 2023 last year.

OPEC has also increased its previous demand outlook for the medium term to 2027, saying the figure is up by almost two million bpd by the end of that period. The group has revised its forecast due to a more solid recovery of the market and a “strong focus on energy security issues.”

Even as the pace of oil demand growth slows, “oil is set to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire forecast period,” OPEC said, adding that the combined market share of oil and gas in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50% to 2045.

OPEC now expects oil demand to reach 108.3 million bpd in 2030, which is up from what it forecasted in 2021. In the longer term, the group has also lifted projections, saying in 2045 global oil demand would hit 109.8 million bpd up from the 108.2 million bpd that it expected last year.

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