India’s GDP to double over next decade – economist

India will become the world’s third largest economy by 2027, with its GDP more than doubling from the current $3.4 trillion to $8.5 trillion over the next 10 years, the chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley wrote in a column for the Financial Times on Tuesday.

India’s market capitalization is projected to rise to $11 trillion by 2032, retaining the status of the third biggest economy globally, Chetan Ahya wrote. 

According to the analyst, India will add more than $400 billion to its GDP every year, a scale that will only be outpaced by the US and China. Ahya noted that the Indian economy today is “where China’s was in 2007 – a 15-year gap.”

The economist highlighted that India’s working age population keeps growing, which suggests that it will have a longer growth runway. The nation’s median age today is 11 years younger than that of China.

India’s real GDP growth will average 6.5% over the coming decade, while China’s will average 3.6%, Ahya said, citing productivity growth differentials. Moreover, New Delhi is currently making concerted efforts to increase spending on infrastructure as the nation plays catch-up to China’s industrialization drive.

Moreover, India is leading and taking a unique developmental approach when it comes to digital infrastructure, which could prove as important as the physical kind in today’s world. Unlike other economies where private networks have taken root, India has led the world in building public digital infrastructure, which is based on its unique Aadhaar digital identification system.

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