The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 5.3% this year as the property sector recovers and external demand improves, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said on Monday.
In its latest report, the Singapore-based group noted that stabilization in China’s property sector along with ongoing policy support will boost real estate investment and drive growth in the ASEAN+3 region, which consists of Southeast Asian nations plus Japan, China, and South Korea.
AMRO’s projection is higher than China’s official growth target of about 5% and Bloomberg’s forecast, which expects the country’s economy to grow 4.6% this year.
“China will continue to be a powerhouse in the region and the main driver of growth,” AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor told Bloomberg. Weakness in the real estate sector “will take a bit of time to overcome, but it will happen and we expect the drag on growth will bottom out maybe this year.”
The Chinese property sector crisis was sparked by the financial distress of major real estate developers, including property giants China Evergrande Group and Country Garden, which have defaulted on their debt.
AMRO also revised upwards its overall growth outlook for ASEAN nations, predicting an expansion of 4.5% this year from 4.3% last year. According to the report, domestic demand is likely to remain resilient, underpinned by recovering investment and firm consumer spending.
Within ASEAN specifically, its six major economies will continue to anchor growth. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to contribute an average of 10% to global growth between 2024 and 2030, experts said.
The organization also forecast the semiconductor industry to rebound from a multiyear slump driven by a “brisk” recovery in chips demand from China. Global semiconductor sales are expected to rise by 9.5% a year on average in 2025–2026, the group said.