IMF sharply raises Russia’s economic growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly increased its growth forecast for the Russian economy in 2024, in its latest World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday.
The Washington-based institution has once again upgraded its estimate, and now expects Russia’s GDP to grow 3.2% this year, a sharp increase from its January projection of 2.6% and more so from its October prediction of 1.1% growth. The forecast for 2025 has also been increased to 1.8% from the January estimate of 1.1%.
Oil export volumes have “held steady” and government spending has “remained high”, contributing to the uptick, the IMF said. The current revision also reflects strong corporate investment, including by state‑owned enterprises, according to the report.
“We have also seen a lot of robustness in private consumption that has underpinned growth,” the IMF added.
Russian economic growth continues, and according to the IMF report, is expected to outpace that of a number of major Western economies this year, including the US (2.7%), UK (0.5%), France (0.7%) and Germany (0.2%).
The IMF’s projection for 2024 is higher than the Russian Economy Ministry’s preliminary reading, which forecast earlier in April that the country’s GDP will expand 2.3% this year, following 3.5% growth in 2023.
Last week, President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian economy had expanded 3.6% last year, more than previously estimated. Earlier, he described the country’s economic performance as an “amazing” success, given that Russia has had to operate under unprecedented Western sanctions.
The IMF left unchanged its projection for China’s 2024 growth to fall to 4.6% from 5.2% in 2023, with a further decline to 4.1% projected for 2025.
Meanwhile the organization increased India’s GDP growth forecast for this year by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, maintaining its 2025 estimate at 6.5%.
