A group of Russian business leaders are skeptical that US President-elect Donald Trump will remove sanctions on Moscow, even if hostilities cease in Ukraine, Bloomberg claimed on Tuesday.
Six top Russian entrepreneurs, speaking on condition of anonymity, allegedly told the American news agency that they see limited hope for easing the embargoes, despite the Republican’s previous critical stance on the restrictive measures imposed by Washington.
“Trump’s rhetoric in the campaign trail may have hinted at his disapproval of sanctions, but no real promises were made,” one billionaire reportedly remarked. Russian executives believe that while Trump has criticized Washington’s heavy reliance on sanctions for “alienating other countries,” reversing the policy amid the current geopolitical climate would prove challenging. Bloomberg explained.
Some members of the Russian business elite, whose companies underpin the nation’s economy and employ hundreds of thousands of workers, have voiced concerns about the trajectory of the economy under prolonged restrictions. While the Bank of Russia projects 3.5–4.0% GDP growth in 2024, many private-sector insiders reportedly remain less optimistic. They argue that the economic impact of the sanctions has been exacerbated by a shrinking labor pool and a defense-heavy industrial focus since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
“Foreign companies leaving the country created holes in production capacities that are hard to replace,” said another source, noting that import substitution efforts are progressing “too slowly” to offset the loss of Western firms. Additionally, a shortage of skilled labor continues to affect various sectors, they said, dampening confidence in sustained growth.
Bloomberg’s sources pointed to domestic pressures as well. While income taxes are extremely low compared to those of other European countries, they are on the rise, and the Bank of Russia’s key interest rate is high. As a result, businesses face constraints in self-financing, which accounts for 50% of their investments. “With higher taxes, we will simply have less to reinvest into growth,” explained Aleksey Vedev, head of financial research at the Gaidar Institute of Economic Policy.
Despite the hurdles, Russia maintains enough resources to sustain its economy under long-term sanctions, several of the billionaires noted. Kremlin officials have admitted that sanctions could persist for another five to ten years, although they maintain the stance that such measures are “ineffective” and will not “frighten Russia.”
President Vladimir Putin, who previously described Western restrictions as a means of “taxpayer extortion,” believes that Russia’s industrial resilience and natural resources will see it through years of economic challenges.