Elections have successfully concluded in ‘Paradise on Earth’. Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC), the oldest political party in the Indian border region of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), has become chief minister (CM) following his party’s victory in the recent legislative assembly election – held for the first time in a decade, on orders from the Supreme Court, under the shadow of the gun.
Abdullah is a significant political figure in J&K, representing the third generation of his family’s political legacy. It will be his second term as CM and marks his party’s return to leadership in a region that has faced decades of unrest and political uncertainty. His previous term (2009-2014) witnessed mass protests in 2010.
Abdullah’s leadership, observers say, is viewed through the lens of his family’s deep political roots in Kashmir, particularly the NC, which was founded by his grandfather, the towering Sheikh Abdullah.
In this election, it emerged as the largest party with 42 seats, forming a coalition with the Indian National Congress (INC) to gain a majority in the 90-seat assembly (before the 2022 delimitation, J&K had an 87-seat assembly; there are now 114 seats, with 24 left open for the part of Kashmir that is administered by neighboring Pakistan).
Given the region’s historical complexities, the new government faces significant political challenges.
“It leaves us with a sense of a lot of humility,” Abdullah told the media about the overwhelming support from the voters of Kashmir.
“This verdict, this mandate, also leaves us with a great sense of responsibility,” he said. “To live up to the expectations. You don’t get a mandate like this without people expecting to see visible change. And that obviously becomes a huge responsibility for us. Also, that responsibility will have to be fulfilled by navigating uncharted waters. We are a union territory, and this is the first time the UT will have an elected government. This is the first time the lieutenant-governor (LG) is going to have to work with an elected government,” he said, reflecting on the challenges that his government will face.
Without a government for six years
J&K was without an elected government the past six years as the last one, an alliance between the regional Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and national Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), fell in 2018. The last election was held in 2014.
On August 5, 2019, the ruling BJP government in New Delhi scrapped the region’s limited autonomy by revoking Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, a 70-year-old citizenship law that provided special rights to J&K’s residents. It also downgraded J&K from a state to a UT.
These controversial changes mean that the new government will have limited powers, as law and order, police, and land use remain under the direct control of New Delhi.
“Restoring political confidence in the region will be challenging,” a political analyst, based in Kashmir and requesting anonymity, told RT. “The new government will have to navigate this sense of political disenfranchisement and work within the confines of the altered constitutional framework.”
Jammu chooses BJP
In the southernmost part of the region, the Hindu-majority Jammu plains, the BJP recorded its historical best by winning 29 seats. But they will still not be part of the government as the NC-INC coalition has enough of a mandate. The BJP did not win a single seat in Kashmir.
The PDP had won 28 seats in the last election in 2014, but faced a major setback and was reduced to three seats this time. The daughter of former CM Mehbooba Mufti was fielded from their home constituency of Srigufwara-Bijbehara but lost to the NC by nearly 10,000 votes.
“I congratulate the people of J&K for voting for a stable government and not a hung (divided) assembly because they faced several problems especially after August 5, 2019,” Mufti told the media after the results were announced. “A stable and strong government is important for the redressal of those problems.”
The PDP chief said that if there was not a clear mandate then there might be some misadventure. She added that New Delhi should take a lesson from the verdict and “not meddle” in the government’s affairs.
“They (the voters) thought the NC-Congress alliance would provide a stable government and fight the BJP and keep it away. I think that is the biggest reason (for the victory of the NC-Congress alliance),” Mufti said, adding that her party will play the role of a constructive opposition. “The issues of the people do not end with an election.”
Redrawing constituencies
This time the electoral outcome in Kashmir was shaped by key factors including the 2022 delimitation process. This exercise redrew constituencies and gave an edge to Jammu, which has predominantly been pro-BJP, thereby diluting the political influence of parties in the Kashmir Valley such as the NC and PDP. The 2022 delimitation increased Jammu’s seats while reducing the relative weight of Kashmir’s constituencies, where anti-BJP sentiments are stronger.
As a result, the NC, despite emerging as the single largest party, faced stiff competition due to the impact of this political restructuring. This skewed redistribution of constituencies was widely viewed as a way to favor the BJP. It generated criticism from many political leaders in the valley, who saw it as a calculated attempt to weaken Kashmiri political representation.
Another factor that gave an advantage to the BJP in Jammu was the Congress Party’s indecisiveness in selecting candidates and failure to present a compelling alternative in Jammu. This weakened its position as the principal opposition force.
This lack of cohesion within the Congress Party allowed the BJP to consolidate its support in Jammu despite palpable discontent, particularly due to issues such as rising unemployment and the economic downturn of local businesses.
“As such, the electorate, particularly within the Hindu belt, gravitated towards the BJP’s assertive and ideologically charged political posture, perceiving it as a more robust and decisive alternative to the Congress’s ad hoc approach,” said Dr Waseem Malla, a research fellow with the International Centre for Peace Studies in New Delhi.
Transformation of the political landscape
Over the last five years, the political landscape in Kashmir has been unprecedentedly transformed.
This time, apart from the mainstream political parties, the banned religious-separatist group, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which boycotted elections in the past, also took part in the recent election through independent proxy candidates. It failed to win any seats.
“From the perspective of voters, we needed a strong government that could listen to us,” Abdul Lateef, a local teacher in Srinagar, told RT. “We did not have many choices to express ourselves and this was a democratic way of showing dissent against the 2019 decision that disempowered us.”
In the polls, groups such as the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari, People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone, and the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by Abdul Rasheed Sheikh (popularly known as Engineer Rasheed), struggled to gain ground. Such parties are viewed by locals as being too aligned with New Delhi’s policies.
“These parties have struggled to maintain relevance in an increasingly fragmented and complex political environment, where the population is more divided along political lines,” said Ghulam Muhammad, a resident of Kulgam district in south Kashmir.
Parties like the NC have deeply entrenched voter bases, with family legacies and long histories of political presence, making it harder for newer or smaller parties to break through.
While the region will see an elected government after a long political vacuum, in Kashmir the public mood is cautious due to the J&K’s complex political environment.
“We hope that the new government will empower people and address issues like unemployment,” said Muhammad Hashmat, 35, an engineer from Srinagar. “But we want to get back our rights that we lost in 2019.”
All in all, a tough task lies ahead for Omar Abdullah, while the BJP can claim to have returned democracy to this border region, always in turmoil.