EU disease agency predicts five-fold increase in Covid-19 prevalence by August 1

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control has said it expects the prevalence of Covid-19 to increase sharply in the coming weeks, reaching 420 cases per 100,000 by August 1, five times more than last week.

In a weekly report on Friday, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) made a concerning prediction about the growth of Covid-19 in the EU, Norway and Iceland. 

Over the past week, the ECDC said that the virus’ prevalence was around 90 cases per 100,000 people in the region surveyed. However, partially due to the arrival of the more contagious Delta variant of Covid-19, the body predicts this to rise sharply in the coming weeks.

The disease experts suggest that by August 1, there will be as many as 420 cases per 100,000 people in the EU, Iceland and Norway. This would rise sharply again to 622 cases the following week. 

While rates across the region are expected to increase, some countries are expected to have high rates of the virus, far in excess of those experienced before. The ECDC predicts that there will be just under 6,000 cases of Covid-19 per 100,000 people in the Netherlands during the second week of August, suggesting that 6% of the population will be infected.

The prevalence in Cyprus is predicted to be even higher, infecting nearly 7% of the population during August’s second week.

The ECDC puts the deterioration of the epidemiological situation down to the growth of the Delta variant, first identified in India. Meanwhile, many countries have loosened Covid-19 restrictions with substantial proportions of the population vaccinated against the virus. The body says that 48.1% of the region’s adult population have been fully vaccinated.

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