Americans born between 1997 and 2012, known as 'Generation Z' will be the last demographic in which white people are a majority, according to a new study of US census data. Less than half of those born since then are white, and the nation as a whole is expected to be majority-minority by 2045.
Census data released two years ago found that the white majority in the US has shrunk from around 80% in 1980 to 59% in 2020. This decline has not been driven by a growth in the black population, which has remained relatively static at between 12% and 13% since 2010. Instead, it is the Hispanic, Asian, and mixed-race population that has soared in the country, increasing to 19%, 6.3% and 3%, respectively.
Published last week, a further study of this data by the Brookings Institution revealed that the white decline is even more exaggerated when broken down by generation. While it has been known since 2020 that whites will cease to be a majority in the US by 2045, this tipping point has already been reached among ‘Generation Alpha’, or those born after 2012.
According to the study, non-Hispanic white people make up 77% of the population over age 75, 67% of the age 55-64 population, 55% of 35-44-year-olds, and just over half of the 18-24 cohort. Among those under 18, 47% are white, 25% Hispanic, 13% black, 5.4% Asian, and the remainder are two or more races.
However, the data may not be entirely reliable. The census asked people to self-identify their race, meaning that those of mixed descent could identify as either of their parent’s races, or both. Likewise, census forms included no option for those of Middle Eastern or North African heritage, who are counted as white by the US government.
America’s declining white population has been a contentious issue in the media in recent years. Republicans have accused Democrats of using lax border policies to import blocks of Hispanic voters – who usually vote Democrat – to historically red states like Texas. Meanwhile, some right-wingers in the US have protested that waves of immigration have led to whites being “replaced” in their own country.
Liberal news outlets have for the most part painted this “replacement theory” as a “racist conspiracy theory” spread by “white nationalists.” However, many of these same outlets have published celebratory articles heralding the “countdown to the White apocalypse.”
Whether pundits and reporters cheer or fear the decline, sociology professor Richard Alba told The Hill that white people will remain “the largest group in this country for a long time.”
“In a sense, we’re forming a new kind of mainstream society here, which is going to be very diverse,” he said. “But whites are going to be a big part of that. It’s not like they’re going to disappear and be supplanted.”