Former US President Donald Trump has nudged ahead of Democratic rival Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup between the two candidates most likely to contest in next year’s presidential election, according to the findings of a national poll.
The survey, published on Saturday by the Wall Street Journal, shows Biden with the lowest approval rating of his nearly three-year presidency, echoing similar polls that show the legally embattled Trump gaining ground in his bid to return to the White House.
According to the WSJ, Trump leads Biden by four percentage points – 47% to 43% – which marks the first time the former president has established a lead in a head-to-head race against his successor. The survey also found that adding a third-party candidate, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., further tilts the race in Trump’s favor by a margin of 37% to 31%.
The WSJ data shows that Biden, whose foreign policies have been brought into sharp focus by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, has also seen his approval rating plummet in several key categories. Just 23% of voters polled say that Biden’s policies have helped them personally – while 53% say they have been “hurt” by his presidential agenda.
By comparison, roughly half of respondents said that Trump’s policies personally helped them during his four-year stint in the Oval Office. Meanwhile, Biden’s overall job performance polled at a record low for the WSJ at 37%, while a record high, 61%, viewed the president as unfavorable.
The poll’s findings, which came less than 11 months before voters cast their ballots in November 2024, echo concerns in some Democratic circles about Biden’s electability. The incumbent president would be 81 on election day and 86 by the time a second term ends. The 77-year-old Trump has highlighted his opponent’s advanced age and speculation about his deteriorating mental capacity.
According to pollster Michael Bocian, Biden is falling short with groups who traditionally support the Democrats, including young, black, and Latino voters. “They are feeling economically stressed and challenged right now,” Bocian told the WSJ. “And they are not showing enthusiasm in the way they were in 2020 and 2022.”
He added, however, that a lot can change between now and next November and that reestablishment of the Biden electoral coalition “is eminently doable.”
In a glimmer of hope for Democrats, Trump’s cascading legal woes appear to be his Achilles’ heel. The WSJ poll suggests that Biden is viewed as the more “honest” candidate compared to Trump, whom a majority view as “corrupt.” A felony conviction for Trump – who faces 91 charges in four separate ongoing prosecutions – would dramatically shift the polling landscape and hand Biden a one-point advantage, the poll also says.