Global population will peak earlier and decline faster – UN
The global population will grow by more than 2 billion in the next few decades, peaking at around 10.3 billion, a new report released by the United Nations on Thursday estimates.
However, the population will begin to decline after peaking in the 2080s, according to the report.
“While countries with populations that already peaked are predominantly in Europe, the largest number of countries and areas among those that are likely to peak over the course of the next 30 years are in Latin America and the Caribbean – 19 countries, or 40% of the total number,” the report reads.
The new figures constitute a major shift in the estimates of global population growth, which had previously been anticipated to expand beyond the 21st century. Now, however, an earlier peak, occurring this century, followed by a more significant decline, is expected with an 80% probability.
“This is a major change compared to the United Nations projections from a decade earlier when the estimated probability the global population would reach a maximum, and thus the growth would come to an end during the 21st century, was around 30%,” John Wilmoth, the head of the UN Population Division, which compiled the report, said.
In many countries, including the US, immigration is expected to become the main factor in population growth in the near future. Should immigration rates wane for any reason, such countries are likely to hit their population peaks much earlier, the report states.
“Immigration is projected to be the main driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100. This group includes Australia, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States of America,” according to the report.
For those countries that have already reached their peaks, including Russia, immigration is believed to be a major factor slowing down their projected decline, according to the report. “For some countries, net immigration helps counter population decline. The population of some 19 countries in this group, including Germany, Japan, Italy, the Russian Federation and Thailand, would have peaked earlier and at a lower level in the absence of immigration,” the report suggests.
Most of the world’s countries are undergoing the same process of shifting towards lower birthrates and longer lifespans, with only a handful of nations expected to show sharp population growth in the decades to come. “The populations of nine countries, including Angola, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia are likely to grow exponentially, with populations doubling in size or more between 2024 and 2054,” the report states, adding that these nine countries are expected to contribute more than a fifth of the projected global population increase over the period.
