Joe Biden’s disastrous performance at the recent presidential debate has had a serious impact on his reelection bid. A series of gaffes and vague statements left even the most loyal Biden voters no chance of making him out as the winner of the debate. Donald Trump, meanwhile, took advantage of his opponent’s mistakes, at every opportunity reminding American voters that the current commander-in-chief is incapable of not only governing the country, but also of finishing a sentence.
The battle between Trump supporters and Democratic elites
Last week, Joe Biden held perhaps one of the most important press conferences of this election cycle. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington, the president sought to convince his critics and supporters that he is mentally capable of serving another four years as president.
During the speech, which lasted just under an hour, Biden actively criticized Trump, noting his lack of public events after the debate. He reproached Trump for doing practically nothing, while Biden himself is actively campaigning. He also stressed that the foreign leaders he met at the NATO summit expressed concern about the prospect of a second Trump term.
Biden has repeatedly emphasized that he considers himself the most qualified candidate to run in the election. He said he had defeated Trump once before and would do it again. He also claimed that other Democrats could defeat Trump, but they would have difficulty starting a campaign from scratch. Biden has emphasized his role in unifying NATO after Trump left the bloc deeply divided. He said foreign leaders had not expressed doubts about his ability to serve as president.
The Biden campaign team’s plan seemed logical: an attempt to rehabilitate its candidate within the framework of the most important international summit and perhaps one of the few strengths of the current president – foreign policy. But NATO allies’ show of confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the Western world has not achieved the expected result. The series of gaffes, which seem to be getting worse and worse, continued.
At first, introducing Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, Biden called him Vladimir Putin, justifying himself by saying that he was too focused on defeating the Russian leader. Later, at the press conference itself, he called Vice President Kamala Harris former President Donald Trump.
His performance is unlikely to change many people’s minds: Despite Biden’s efforts, his press conference did not stop the growing number of Democrats calling for him to step aside. Amid growing discontent within the Democratic Party, the party’s donors have frozen $90 million intended for Biden’s election campaign. The decision was made after the debate, where Trump looked much more convincing, making donors doubt Biden’s chances of winning. Now the money will be allocated only if another candidate is nominated.
In addition, a growing number of Democratic leaders are expressing doubts about Biden’s ability to successfully run for a second term. There are growing calls in closed-door meetings for Biden to withdraw his candidacy. In particular, several members of the House of Representatives and senators are actively discussing the possibility of nominating a new candidate from the Democratic Party. Seventeen prominent Democrats, including Reps. Jim Himes, Scott Peters, and Erik Sorensen, have publicly called on Biden to abandon his 2024 candidacy. If Biden remains in the race, he will have to overcome significant opposition not only from Republicans, but also from within his own party.
From bad to worse: Assassination attempt on Trump
In the midst of a particularly difficult moment for Biden to regain optimism about his chances of re-election, there was an assassination attempt on Trump that likely determined the outcome of the presidential election in November.
Despite the chaos after the shooting that left him with a bloodied ear, Trump showed his political instincts, raising his fist in the air and drawing cheers from the crowd. That instantly iconic gesture symbolized confidence and resilience at a critical moment.
After the incident, Trump shared his impressions, noting that he felt the need to show support and strength when he saw that the audience at the rally remained in place. He emphasized that he understood how important this moment was for history. Trump supporters said his reaction instilled confidence. Trump, despite his injury, continued to interact with the crowd and his gestures received a positive response. The incident was another clear example of Trump’s skillful use of imagery and symbolism, which will certainly affect his election campaign.
The attack could have a positive impact on Trump’s election hopes as his image has become a symbol of political rebirth following his criminal conviction. The former president already has a lead in the polls both nationally and in most key states. Trump supporters believe the incident will mobilize Republicans and increase support among independent voters sympathetic to his situation. That makes it difficult for Biden and the Democratic Party to attack Trump on the campaign trail, prompting the president’s campaign to pause some advertising.
Reagan parallel: Rally-around-the-flag effect
An attempt on the life of a current or former president of the United States is an extraordinary event. The last example of such a violent event was when President Ronald Reagan was attacked a few months after taking office.
The assassination attempt on March 30, 1981, had a significant impact on Reagan’s popularity and political career. After the assassination attempt, Reagan showed courage and optimism, joked with doctors and maintained a positive attitude, which caused a wave of sympathy and empathy among Americans. This played an important role in strengthening his image as a strong and resilient leader. His approval ratings skyrocketed shortly after the assassination attempt. This phenomenon is known as the “rally-around-the-flag effect,” when a nation unites around a leader in moments of crisis. Reagan’s approval rating rose to over 70% after the attempt on his life.
The attack and Reagan’s response to it reinforced his image as a strong and decisive leader. In 1984, Reagan and his campaign actively used this image. He earned a landslide victory, winning the support of 49 of the 50 states. His opponent, Walter Mondale, could only win his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia. Reagan received 525 electoral votes to Mondale’s 13.
It is too early to say whether Trump will repeat Reagan’s success against the backdrop of the failed assassination attempt, however, Biden’s reelection chances have already been dealt a blow.
The Democrats’ short bench: Who could replace Biden?
Biden has made it clear that only “God Almighty” can convince him to drop out of the presidential race. However, if he changes his mind, Vice President Harris would be the most suitable candidate to replace him.
Harris’ position is strengthened by her experience working on Biden’s team, her established trust with key demographic groups and the significant campaign funds amassed during Biden’s campaign. If there were an open primary race against Biden, the prospects would be more favorable.
One of the main advantages for Harris will be the likely support of Biden. While party rules don’t allow delegates to be simply transferred, many have already pledged allegiance to Harris, which could streamline the nomination process and minimize potential disagreements that could arise at the convention. Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist, stressed that Harris represents a continuation of Biden’s legacy and reflects the administration’s popular agenda.
Despite discussions of other potential candidates such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, there has been little political maneuvering among Democrats to support alternatives to Harris. Many party members appear to be taking a less active stance, especially in the face of a difficult election against Trump.
As for Trump, his most advantageous competitor in the national elections is Biden. A change in Democratic candidate could kick-start the optimism of that party’s supporters and mobilize them. Until this happens, Trump faces the task of uniting the Republican elites. And the unsuccessful attempt on his life is a very convenient way of doing this.