The fate of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will most likely depend on whatever decision Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has made, according to Politico.
The German politician was nominated for a second term at the helm of the EU last month, in a back-room deal between six national leaders that left out Meloni’s Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.
“Europe’s two most powerful women will face their shared moment of truth” on Thursday afternoon, Politico EU noted. “And it’s possible that only one of them will emerge a winner.”
Von der Leyen needs 361 votes in the 720-member European Parliament. On paper, she has the support of the conservatives, liberals, greens and socialists, but up to 15% of their MEPs might not back her on the secret ballot. Meloni’s 78 votes could tip the scales, according to the outlet.
As of Tuesday, it was still unclear which way the ECR intended to lean.
The Italian PM faces a choice between being “pragmatic” and endearing herself to the EU leadership and being loyal to her political principles and coalition partners in Italy. Her coalition partner Matteo Salvini has made opposition to von der Leyen a key policy plank.
According to Politico, the bloc has offered several concessions to Rome to sweeten the deal. There is also “no Plan B” in Brussels should von der Leyen fail.
On Wednesday, however, the General Court of the EU ruled that von der Leyen had not been transparent enough with the public about contracts with Pfizer for Covid-19 vaccines. The case was brought by Greens MEPs, whose support she would need in Thursday’s vote.
The European Parliament elections in early June saw voters rebuke the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), the Greens and Renew Europe, all of whom lost seats. Von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP) bloc gained just one seat, while the ECR and the insurgent Patriots for Europe made significant gains.
A video conference between EU leaders two weeks later agreed to keep von der Leyen in the top job, have Estonian PM Kaja Kallas replace Spain’s Josep Borrell as the new foreign policy commissioner, and put former Portuguese PM Antonio Costa in charge of the European Council, previously chaired by Belgium’s Charles Michel.
Polish PM Donald Tusk and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis negotiated for the EPP, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez spoke on behalf of S&D, and French President Emmanuel Macron and caretaker Dutch PM Mark Rutte represented Renew, according to Reuters.