Western powers’ reluctance to boost lethal aid to Ukraine means the situation on the frontline is unlikely to improve for Kiev, according to former Russian deputy prime minister Alfred Koch.
The Yeltsin-era official, who took office in 1997 under then-premier Viktor Chernomyrdin, now reportedly lives in Germany and keeps ‘war diaries’ on the Ukraine conflict.
“In general, there are already so many peace plans, from the very real Orban plan to the mythical Erdogan plan, that there is a definite smell of peace in the air,” Koch wrote on Telegram on Monday, noting that only European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “wants to fight forever and promises unwavering support to Ukraine.”
However, von der Leyen has no weapons, he said, noting that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other leaders of EU states “are not ready to sharply increase military supplies to Ukraine.”
Koch further wrote that “without such a breakthrough, the situation on the frontline is unlikely to significantly change in Ukraine’s favor… And this has finally been understood in Kiev.”
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky “continues his strange dance around the second peace summit, and demands that Russia be present at it” but “it is not very clear to me what levers Zelensky has to force Russia to come to his summit”, Koch wrote.
The previous “inaugural” summit “passed without a trace, but Zelensky continues to pretend that he made some progress with it,” he added.
Since 2022, Ukraine has been promoting its ‘peace formula,’ which requires that Russia withdraw its troops from all territories that Kiev claims as its own. Zelensky’s first peace conference was hosted by Switzerland last month. Moscow has repeatedly dismissed Kiev’s peace plan as detached from reality and did not participate in the event.
Kiev has so far rejected all international peace overtures, but earlier this month Zelensky signaled that he wanted to end the conflict “as soon as possible,” and was ready to talk with Russia regardless of who is in charge of the country. He has raised the possibility of holding a second peace conference as a way to achieve this goal.
However, this contradicts a presidential decree Zelensky signed in the autumn of 2022 – which barred all talks with the current leadership in Moscow.
Moscow has repeatedly said is open to talks with Kiev, but that numerous issues – including Zelensky’s legitimacy as head of state and Western interference – need to be resolved for any meaningful conversation to begin.
President Putin said last month that Moscow was ready to immediately open peace talks with Ukraine if it withdraws troops from Donbass and two of its other former regions, and commits to a neutral status, abandoning ambitions to join NATO. Moscow has long viewed the US-led bloc’s expansion as an existential threat, and cited Kiev’s desire for membership a key reason for the conflict.