A New York Times poll released on Saturday shows US Vice President Kamala Harris with a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The poll’s sampling data, however, suggests that the race could be far closer in reality.
Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, the survey of nearly 2,000 likely voters found Harris beating Trump by 50% to 46% across all three states. The poll was conducted between August 5 and 9, in the week that Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan reliably voted Democrat from 1992 until 2016, when Trump defied almost all polling to win all three. President Joe Biden managed to flip these Rust Belt states back in 2020, but did so by razor-thin margins. For both Harris and Trump, winning either Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, or Michigan and Wisconsin’s combined 25 votes, is essential to winning this November’s election.
While the poll suggests that Harris is on track to win a resounding victory in all three states, a look at its methodology suggests that the Democrat’s lead could be an illusion. For example, 45% of respondents in Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, while 39% chose Trump. In reality, Biden won Michigan by less than three points, instead of the six that the poll suggests.
Similar disparities can be seen in Pennsylvania, where the poll’s sampling suggests that Biden won the state by five points in 2020, compared to 1.2 in reality, and in Wisconsin, where the poll showed Biden winning by eight points, instead of 0.6.
With this oversampling of Democrats taken into account, Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat in all three states.
Regardless, the poll is one of several to show Harris closing in on Trump. According to an average of multiple polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Harris is currently leading Trump nationwide by 0.5%. By contrast, Trump was leading Biden by around three points immediately before the president suspended his reelection campaign last month.
Despite publishing no policy positions and taking no questions from journalists since announcing her campaign, Harris has seen her favorability rise to 48%, up from 36% in February, according to previous New York Times/Siena polls. Trump’s favorability currently sits at 46%, up from 44% in February.