Germany is unlikely to be able to stand up to Russia in the event of a potential conflict any time soon, a new report issued by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) has said.
Despite promises made by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, the nation’s military procurement system remains “cumbersome” and defense spending is “woefully inadequate,” the paper released on Monday has found.
According to the IfW – one of the nation’s leading economic think tanks – the German Armed Forces or Bundeswehr is still far below its capacity benchmarks from two decades ago. The number of combat aircraft at Germany’s disposal has halved and the number of battle tanks has fallen from almost 2,400 to just 339. The figures presented by the institute also showed that the nation had only 12 air-defense systems.
Back in 2022, Scholz announced a ‘Zeitenwende’ – a historic turning point for Germany – as his coalition government unveiled a plan worth €100 billion to modernize the military. The special modernization fund is set to run dry by 2028, when Germany expects to meet NATO’s recommendation of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Berlin has also joined the US and other Western nations in supplying military aid to Kiev amid its conflict with Moscow.
According to IfW president Moritz Schularick, the ‘Zeitenwende’ has “so far proven to be empty rhetoric.” The report slammed Germany’s defense procurement system as extremely slow and expensive. It would take Germany more than a decade on average to get back even to its 2004 level, the report said. In the case of artillery, it would require almost a century, the estimates showed.
For now, Europe’s biggest economy is “barely managing to replace the weapons” it donates to Kiev, the IfW said. The Bundeswehr’s stocks of air-defense systems and howitzers also plummeted as a result of the continued military aid to Ukraine, it added. Earlier this year, Reuters reported that Berlin would cut this aid by half in 2025 to tackle the federal budget deficit.
This situation makes Germany no match for Russia in the event of a potential conflict, the IfW warned. According to the think tank’s estimates, Russia would be able to “produce the equivalent of the Bundeswehr’s entire arsenal in just over half a year.”
Moscow’s forces are also able to expend around 10,000 artillery shells and missiles a day without ever worrying about running out of ammo, the IfW said. If Germany were to maintain a similar rate of fire, it would use up “a year’s worth of its entire ammunition production within 70 days.”
Top German officials have repeatedly raised the prospect of a direct clash between Russia and NATO as a reason for the nation to become “war capable.” In June, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the nation “must be ready for war by 2029.”
Moscow has repeatedly dismissed these claims. In June, President Vladimir Putin dismissed reports about alleged Russian plans to attack NATO as “nonsense” and “bulls**t.” “Have they gone completely insane?” he asked at the time.